Muse and my investing muse (05Oct2026)
News and my thoughts from the past week (05Oct2026)
The fuel cluster (📷 1–4):
1. 📷 Diesel will “not return to normal for a year.” Energy executives in the Dallas Fed survey expect high fuel costs to persist — with pump signs already showing diesel above US$8/gallon in places and petrol above US$6. This is no longer a spike; it is being budgeted as a condition. - Financial Times
Diesel above US$8/gallon at the pump (FT, via Benson)
2. 📷 China’s refiners suspend October fuel exports; PetroChina cancels cargoes. The world’s swing supplier of refined products is keeping its fuel at home. - Reuters, 1 October
China refiners suspend October fuel exports (Reuters, via Benson)
3. 📷 India’s MRPL cancels three export tenders (diesel, jet fuel, reformate) after a refinery fire. - hydrocarbonprocessing.com, 30 September
MRPL cancels export tenders after refinery fire (hydrocarbonprocessing.com, via Benson)
4. 📷 The UK holds just 42 days of diesel imports in stock — against 677 in the US, 1,025 in Japan and 1,382 in Canada. Australia sits at 31. Resilience is unevenly distributed, and the UK and Australia are at the thin end. - Sky/Jodi, July 2026 data
Days of diesel import cover by country (Sky/Jodi, via Benson)
The long-end cluster (📷 5–7):
5. 📷 The US 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.62% this week, pressing new highs for the cycle. - chart via Benson
US 30-year Treasury yield (chart via Benson)
6. 📷 The UK 30-year gilt yield is at 5.96% — a level unthinkable five years ago, and a reminder that the long-end repricing is global, not American. - TradingView chart via Benson
UK 30-year gilt yield at 5.958% (TradingView, via Benson)
7. 📷 Cayman Islands hedge funds are buying US T-bills faster than ever — record holdings, ~US$225bn to July. Fast money is parking at the short end while the long end sells off; that is a positioning statement about where confidence ends. - Bloomberg
Cayman hedge funds’ record T-bill buying (Bloomberg, via Benson)
The AI scrutiny and financing cluster (📷 8–11):
8. 📷 Amazon is looking to offload ~US$8bn of Nvidia Grace Blackwell chips into a special-purpose vehicle and lease them back — an asset-light manoeuvre to shield the balance sheet. When the biggest buyer of AI hardware starts financial engineering around it, the capex cycle is maturing. - FT, via screenshot
Amazon’s ~US$8bn Nvidia-chip SPV lease-back (FT, via Benson)
9. 📷 The 50 largest US data-centre projects — US$396bn of value — are delayed, mostly on power, permits and equipment, with Apple’s Waukee campus pushed ~5 years. The build-out is real; so is the grid. - project-tracking infographic via X (⚠️ treat as directional, not audited)
50 largest US data-centre projects delayed (infographic via X, via Benson)
10. 📷 The FTC is investigating OpenAI, Anthropic and other AI companies over product risks. Regulation is arriving while the capex is still being spent. - CNBC
FTC investigates AI companies over product risks (CNBC, via Benson)
11. 📷 New Mexico wants Meta to pay US$40bn after its data-privacy trial loss. AI-era liability is finding its price tags. - Yahoo Finance
New Mexico vs Meta, US$40bn (Yahoo Finance, via Benson)
The household cluster (📷 12–14):
12. 📷 US electricity prices have hit US$0.20/kWh, a record, after a steep four-year climb — data centres included among the causes. - Koyfin
US electricity prices at a record US$0.20/kWh (Koyfin, via Benson)
13. 📷 McDonald’s prices are up 67–199% since 2014 — the chart is two years dated (2014 vs 2024 prices), but as a picture of what “transitory” felt like at the drive-through, it explains today’s consumer mood. - via X
McDonald’s prices 2014 vs 2024 (dated chart, via X/Benson)
14. 📷 Apple’s new CEO is reportedly planning layoffs to reshape the company. The lay-off ledger now includes the largest company on earth. - Yahoo Finance
Apple’s new CEO reportedly planning layoffs (Yahoo Finance, via Benson)
Verified by Kimi:
15. The RBA did it. As expected by all four majors, the Reserve Bank of Australia raised the cash rate 25 bp to 4.60% on Tuesday — the fourth rise of 2026, the highest since 2011. The statement’s reasons are the year’s story in miniature: the Middle East conflict has broadened, energy prices are “much higher than assumed”, and AI-related demand is driving up global prices for technology goods. The AI boom is now literally in a central bank’s inflation statement. RBA media release, 29 September (https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2026/mr-26-27.html)
16. The labour market cracked. September payrolls came in at +29,000 against ~+84–90K expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; and the revisions were the uglier news — July revised from +21K to −10K, August from +162K to +133K. Equities rallied on the print (bad news as good news — October-hike odds eased), which is itself a statement about what the market currently fears most. Yahoo Finance/BLS, 2 October (https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/september-2026-jobs-report-payrolls-123334753.html)
17. PCE offered the cooler counterweight. August core PCE printed 3.0% year on year and 0.2% month on month, down from 3.3% and a tenth cooler than consensus; real consumer spending rose a healthy 0.6%. Disinflation without collapse — the soft-landing case’s best evidence this month. BEA, 30 September (https://www.bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2026)
18. Micron blew through its own bar. FQ4 revenue of US$54.2B versus ~US$51B expected, adjusted EPS US$33.42 versus ~US$31.6, and next-quarter guidance of US$61.5B ± 1.5B against US$57B expected, with data-centre revenue up eleven-fold. Micron IR (https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-Inc--Reports-Record-Fiscal-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2026-Results/default.aspx), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/30/micron-mu-q4-earnings-report-2026.html)
19. Nike reported Thursday. ⚠️ Result not yet verified at drafting time — Benson, if you want this in the letter, say so and I will pull the print (FQ1 2027: consensus was EPS US$0.44 on ~US$11.3B revenue).
My Investing Muse (05Oct2026)
Severe weather and economic disruption. A series of storms has caused flooding and other disruptions across major Asian cities, while another powerful system is approaching Japan. Spain and France have also experienced flooding, and severe weather has affected parts of the Americas. Reports from several countries include hail, damaging winds and a small tornado, while flooding has also been reported in Johor, Malaysia. These events are likely to affect lives, livelihoods, supply chains, economies and other sectors, and the storm season is far from over. As the world prepares for El Niño to peak toward year-end, further impacts and more severe weather systems may develop. Countries still have time to strengthen their preparedness.
AI hardware and depreciation. A growing concern is how AI companies classify their hardware and propose depreciating it over periods comparable with long-lived assets such as aircraft. AI hardware generally has a much shorter useful life. Extending depreciation schedules may reduce reported costs and increase profits, but it may not reflect the equipment’s practical lifespan. Although the hardware can remain operational beyond that period, rising computational demands and energy consumption can create a mismatch between its continuing use and its accounting treatment.
US affordability and food supply. Attention is also turning to the coming US midterm elections, as the current administration highlights its achievements. At the same time, reports of fast-food chain closures point to fewer affordable dining options. With grocery prices rising, many households are being squeezed from both directions, revealing a widening gap between consumption needs and affordability. If consumers continue to run out of options while a record number of American farms declare bankruptcy, the United States may need to reassess its procurement and food-supply chains.
Market outlook and risk. Artificial intelligence remains a major driver of economic growth, placing substantial weight on the sector. AI companies may therefore contribute significantly to both market gains and market declines. In light of this concentration, some hedging may be prudent.
Financial Strategy and Outlook
Let us close with the principles that keep us steady regardless of what the week brings. Spend within our means. Invest only what we can afford to lose. Avoid leverage, especially with rates rising and volatility returning. Keep a watchlist, buy quality at sensible prices, diversify across sectors and geographies, and let position sizing — not conviction — carry the risk. Review, rebalance, and never let a single week’s headlines rewrite a long-term plan.
Wishing everyone a successful week ahead.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
