To The Moon

① What's Happening Today

Key Summary: Rates and oil prices both rising, tech stocks under pre-market pressure, but capital hasn't fully exited AI.

Treasury yields moved higher, with the 10-year rising to 5.35% and the 30-year to 5.70%. Combined with rising oil prices and escalating Strait of Hormuz tensions, the semiconductor sector led the decline.

But the AI main line hasn't gone out: MRVL raised its long-term revenue target at its Investor Day, AVGO was boosted by news of Anthropic TPU orders, B200 rental prices continued climbing, and power demand-related names VST, GEV, and BE strengthened in tandem.

Today's core tension: Rates are compressing valuations, but AI compute demand is still providing fundamental support.

② What Money Is Betting On / Defending Against

🟠 Buy Side: Index and some AI assets still have early bets on upside, but Puts are also being bought for defense.

SPY | 10/14 790C $SPY 20261014 790.0 CALL$ 

— 26,000 contracts, ~$2.758 million, current price 778.17; 25,500 contracts, ~$2.704 million, current price 778.17
→ Two sweep orders concentrated in 790 Call buying — a clear short-to-medium-term upside speculation, betting on the index rebounding and breaking above 790.

IWM | 11/20 287C $IWM 20261120 287.0 CALL$ 

— 15,500 contracts, ~$8.37 million, current price 281.41
→ A large Call bet on small and mid-caps catching up — capital hasn't fully shifted to defense despite rising rates.

NVDA | 2027/6/17 240P $NVDA 20270617 240.0 PUT$ 

— 13,000 contracts, ~$32.565 million, current price 241.90
→ A Put defense exceeding $32 million is very eye-catching — more like locking in downside risk on a high-level AI core asset rather than simply chasing upside.

🟢 Sell Side: Heavy Put selling to collect premium, with the core bet being "won't fall too deep"; but some stocks are starting to see capping.

SMH | 2027/3/19 600P $SMH 20270319 600.0 PUT$ 

— 4,500 contracts, ~$16.965 million, current price 636.64
→ Large Put sale — the core logic is that even if semiconductors consolidate, they're unlikely to break below 600.

QQQ | 11/30 700P $QQQ 20261130 700.0 PUT$ 

— 4,000 contracts + 3,000 contracts, 7,000 total, ~$4.018 million, current price ~760.7
→ Selling the 700 Put indicates capital is willing to take on risk at lower levels, betting that tech still has a safety cushion in the medium term.

META | 10/23 750C $META 20261023 750.0 CALL$ 

— Multiple trades totaling ~8,352 contracts, notional ~$15.58 million, current price ~739
→ Repeatedly selling the 750 Call — 750 forms clear overhead pressure, with short-term bias toward consolidation rather than chasing.

③ Where to Watch the Relevant Tickers

SPY: Watch whether 790 can become the upside target again. Concentrated 790C buying indicates capital is still betting on a rebound, but rising rates are the biggest headwind. Short-term, first watch whether the market can recover pre-market losses, then whether chasing appears near 790.

QQQ: Watch the defense zone represented by the 700 Put. Heavy Put selling shows capital is still willing to take on downside risk, but tech is being pressured by rates today. First watch whether 760 can hold. If it breaks, Put sellers face greater pressure.

SMH: 600 is an important medium-term psychological defense line. Put selling indicates capital still has medium-term confidence in semiconductors, but with semiconductors leading the pre-market decline today, short-term watch whether 636 can stabilize — 600 is the actual defense level the block trade corresponds to.

NVDA: Around 240 is the bull-bear key. A $32.56 million 240 Put is worth noting. After NVDA hit new highs, a massive defensive order appeared — bulls remain, but high-level protection demand has clearly increased.

META: 750 is clear pressure. Multiple 750 Call sells indicate the market isn't willing to pay higher premium for a short-term breakout above 750. If tech is broadly pressured today, META is more likely to stay range-bound.

④ What to Watch Pre-Market Today

AI Semiconductors: NVDA / SMH / AVGO / MRVL — The core isn't simply watching AI positives, but whether AI fundamentals can offset valuation pressure in a high-rate environment. Semiconductors are down notably pre-market — first watch whether NVDA and SMH can stabilize.

SPY / QQQ: Watch whether the index can digest rate pressure. SPY has 790 Call upside-chasing, while QQQ has heavy Put selling for defense — capital isn't broadly bearish yet. Today's key is whether losses can narrow, not the pre-market red or green.

IWM: Watch whether small and mid-caps catch up. The 287 Call shows capital is still betting on small and mid-cap upside, but rising rates make small-cap valuations more sensitive. If IWM is relatively resilient today, that's worth noting.

Power / AI Infrastructure: VST / GEV / BE — AI compute demand is transmitting toward the "power bottleneck." If tech is pressured today while power stocks remain strong, it means the AI trade is spreading from chips to infrastructure.

One-Sentence Read

Rates and oil prices are compressing tech valuations, but options capital hasn't fully retreated: SPY and IWM still have Call bets, while QQQ and SMH have heavy Put selling defending the downside. What really needs guarding against is NVDA's massive high-level Put and the overhead pressure formed by META's 750 Call.