$MU The Memory Supply Flood May Be Much Further Away Than Bears Think
Memory bears keep predicting a flood of new supply.
But look at when $Micron Technology(MU)$ ’s new fabs actually start producing:
🏭 Early 2027 — Singapore HBM packaging plant
🏭 Mid-2027 — Tongluo, Taiwan, first wafers in small volumes
🏭 Late 2028 — Tongluo at volume, Hiroshima DRAM, new Idaho fabs
🏭 2H 2028 — Singapore NAND fab
🏭 2030+ — New York
Almost nothing meaningfully adds DRAM bits before mid-2027.
And even once a cleanroom is ready, it takes years to fully load it with equipment and ramp production.
That means meaningful incremental capacity may not arrive until 2029.
This is why management expects 2027 and 2028 to be tighter than 2026.
Tighter supply → higher prices → stronger margins.
And there’s another potential catalyst.
$Micron Technology(MU)$ × $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ 🤝
Micron and Nvidia are co-designing what is described as the industry's first custom HBM4E, NVHBM.
Micron is building the base die of the memory stack together with Nvidia, optimized for Nvidia’s next-generation GPUs and NVLink networking platforms.
That kind of partnership is extremely difficult to establish.
Once Nvidia designs its GPUs around Micron’s custom memory, switching suppliers becomes much harder.
That could give Micron a more durable share of the world's largest HBM buyer for years.
Micron is still the smallest of the three major HBM suppliers, behind SK Hynix and Samsung.
But it has one major advantage:
It’s the only U.S.-based HBM maker. 🇺🇸
If Micron can execute on capacity and technology, the combination of tighter supply and deeper Nvidia integration could give it a much clearer path to taking HBM share.
The supply flood may be coming — but the timeline looks a lot further out than the bears expect. 📈
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