$MU The Memory Supply Flood May Be Much Further Away Than Bears Think
Memory bears keep predicting a flood of new supply. But look at when $Micron Technology(MU)$ ’s new fabs actually start producing: 🏭 Early 2027 — Singapore HBM packaging plant 🏭 Mid-2027 — Tongluo, Taiwan, first wafers in small volumes 🏭 Late 2028 — Tongluo at volume, Hiroshima DRAM, new Idaho fabs 🏭 2H 2028 — Singapore NAND fab 🏭 2030+ — New York Almost nothing meaningfully adds DRAM bits before mid-2027. And even once a cleanroom is ready, it takes years to fully load it with equipment and ramp production. That means meaningful incremental capacity may not arrive until 2029. This is why management expects 2027 and 2028 to be tighter than 2026. Tighter supply → higher prices → stronger margins. And there’s another potential catalyst.
The bond market and equity market are sending very different signals right now. The 10-year Treasury yield just pushed to a fresh 24-year high, reaching around 5.36%, while $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is simultaneously making new all-time highs. That kind of divergence is pretty rare in modern markets. So which market blinks first? Either bonds are about to reverse, or equities are showing an absurd amount of underlying strength. Maybe both. The really interesting setup comes next: If yields start rolling over without growth slowing or breaking, the equity rally could accelerate very quickly into year-end. 🚀 For now, I’m watching the relationship between $SPY and the 10-year yield very closely. The divergence itself may be the signal. 👀 Marke
Bears jumped on reports that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ may use less HBM per GPU. But $Micron Technology(MU)$ CEO Sanjay Mehrotra pushed back on the demand narrative. The issue is supply, not demand. Customers may put less memory into each server simply because there isn’t enough HBM to fully equip every system. In other words: They’re reducing memory per server so they can ship more servers. That’s very different from AI demand weakening. And there’s a limit to how far you can de-spec. You can go from 12 HBM stacks to 8. But you can’t keep cutting memory while AI models continue getting larger and workloads become more memory-intensive. Micron’s pricing power tells the same story. For every $100 of memory sold last qu
We need more conversation around how to actually hold stocks longer. Everyone wants a 100% mover — until it’s time to actually hold one for 100%. If you’re constantly selling the moment you see some green because the money starts burning a hole in your pocket, try a simple framework: “Half off for the heat, stop at breakeven.” When my brain starts screaming “SELL,” I take roughly 50% off the position. Then I move the stop on the remaining half to breakeven or use a trailing stop. That remaining position becomes the core. I can trade around it, add when the setup improves, or simply let it breathe. The goal isn’t to perfectly time the exit. It’s to give your best ideas enough room to become big winners. Buying is easy. Holding is hard. Find a framework that fits your personality and your ps
$Micron Technology(MU)$ bought back just $650M of stock in FY2026. The reason? CHIPS Act restrictions limited larger buybacks for two years. That restriction expires on December 9. After that, Micron enters a very different capital-return setup: 💰 $73.5B in cash + long-term investments 💳 Just $5.2B of debt 🔥 Massive free cash flow generation 📈 Management has stated a goal of returning 100% of excess cash to shareholders Micron’s CFO also said the company expects to increase capital returns after December 9 and plans to seek additional buyback authorization. That could become a major catalyst for $MU. If earnings and FCF remain anywhere near the current trajectory, the combination of AI-driven memory demand + pricing power + buybacks could dramatical
Semis Are Leading, $HOOD Is My Crypto Swing, $ALAB Looks Ridiculous 🔥
Semiconductors are absurdly strong right now. 🔥 I’m not currently in $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ , but just look at the 1-month performance across semiconductors. Some of the biggest names in the AI trade are absolutely herculean right now. And you’re bearish? 🤨 Follow da leader. ₿ Crypto strength is another theme I’m watching. One of my favorite swing ideas remains $Robinhood(HOOD)$ around ~$112. New verticals. Trailblazing CEO. Cult-like following. Strong story. It’s not always the smoothest mover, but I think $150 is coming soon. 🚀 🔥 $Astera Labs, Inc.(ALAB)$ is another one I’m watching closely. Technical setups rarely drive my swing decisions, but this one
$MU 2029 Price Target: Is the Memory Boom Just Getting Started?
What will $Micron Technology(MU)$ be worth in 2029? 👀 Micron just delivered an incredibly strong earnings report, yet the stock barely moved. Why? 🤔 Because 2026 results are already priced into the story. Investors knew this was going to be an extraordinary year. 🧠 The bigger question is 2027. We’re in a massive memory shortage right now. AI has driven a huge increase in memory demand, while supply has barely moved. Demand doubles. Supply grows less than 10%. Prices can triple. 📈 That’s why the market isn’t celebrating 2026 anymore. Investors are already looking ahead to whether the cycle can continue. ⚠️ Some investors, including Michael Burry, expect revenue and EPS to decline in 2027. But so far, the evidence is pointing in the opposite directi