I think memory may be approaching a cyclical peak, but the evidence is not strong enough to call the top yet.
Samsung’s record profit shows the underlying demand and pricing environment remain exceptionally strong. The warning sign is the second derivative: profit is still growing, but sequential growth has slowed sharply, while DRAM and NAND price increases are moderating.
For cyclical stocks, markets usually price the turn before earnings actually fall. That explains why MU, SNDK and SK Hynix can sell off even when current profits look spectacular.
My base case: memory fundamentals remain strong into 2027, especially HBM and AI-related demand, but valuations could become increasingly sensitive to any sign of slower pricing, capacity expansion or weaker AI capex. Record earnings do not necessarily mean the cycle has peaked, but expectations may already be near peak levels.
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