To The Moon

SpaceX is no longer just a rocket company. It’s becoming an AI infrastructure, satellite communications and connectivity business — and Wall Street wants to know whether the numbers will add up.

SpaceX’s third-quarter earnings report is attracting attention for a reason. According to a recent Dow Jones report, the company is expected to return to profitability, with revenue forecast to reach $12.8 billion, up 64% from the same period last year.

But the headline figures only tell part of the story.

Behind the growth is an ambitious plan to build AI computing capacity, expand Starlink and develop next-generation rockets. These businesses could create multiple sources of future revenue, but they also require enormous amounts of capital.

The big question isn’t simply how fast SpaceX is growing. It’s whether the company can turn that growth into sustainable profits without taking on excessive financial risk.

🤖 1. AI Is Becoming a Major Part of the SpaceX Story

When people think about SpaceX, they usually think about rockets, satellite launches and Elon Musk.

However, AI computing is becoming an increasingly important part of the company’s investment story.

According to Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu, SpaceX’s AI revenue could reach approximately $6 billion in the September quarter, nearly three times the June quarter’s level.

Yu also estimates that the handful of customers signed up to purchase its AI computing power represent $54.5 billion in annualised run-rate revenue.

That figure is worth watching, but there’s an important distinction: annualised run-rate revenue is not the same as revenue already earned. It extrapolates recent performance or contracted activity and does not guarantee that the full amount will ultimately be realised.

Nevertheless, the figures illustrate the scale of the opportunity SpaceX is pursuing.

Demand for AI computing is creating opportunities for companies that can secure powerful chips, build data centres and provide customers with the infrastructure needed to train and run AI models.

SpaceX is attempting to establish a position in this market while also operating its established launch and satellite businesses.

The opportunity is substantial. The challenge is funding it.

💰 2. The $67 Billion Spending Question

Here’s where the story becomes more complicated.

The Dow Jones report cited an estimate from Yu that SpaceX spent approximately $19 billion on capital expenditure in the third quarter, primarily related to AI computing.

Wall Street expects full-year capital expenditure to reach approximately $67 billion.

And that may not be the end of the spending.

The report also highlighted estimates suggesting that SpaceX’s broader infrastructure ambitions could require hundreds of billions of dollars in additional investment over time.

Why is the spending so enormous?

AI infrastructure requires expensive processors, networking equipment, data-centre facilities, electricity and cooling systems. Companies must invest heavily before they can generate revenue from the capacity they build.

SpaceX also has to fund its other ambitions, including Starship development and the expansion of Starlink.

This creates a difficult balancing act.

On one hand, investing early could help SpaceX secure customers and establish a competitive position in a rapidly expanding market.

On the other hand, infrastructure can become a financial burden if customer demand disappoints, computing prices decline or the company struggles to earn an adequate return on its investment.

Revenue growth is exciting, but capital efficiency determines whether that growth creates value for shareholders.

📉 3. Could Debt Become SpaceX’s Biggest Risk?

One of the most important issues to watch is how SpaceX finances its expansion.

The report said SpaceX was reportedly aiming to borrow $40 billion to fund Nvidia chip purchases for its data centres. It had also raised $25 billion of debt just a few months earlier.

Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas reportedly expects SpaceX could issue another $80 billion in debt next year.

These are reported financing plans and analyst expectations, not confirmation that all the proposed borrowing will occur.

Still, they highlight a critical risk.

Borrowing allows a company to invest in growth without raising all the required money through equity. If the investments generate returns greater than their financing costs, debt can help accelerate expansion.

But leverage works both ways.

If interest rates rise, refinancing becomes more expensive or operating cash flow falls short of expectations, debt can put pressure on the business.

Investors also need to consider the timing of the cash flows. SpaceX may need to spend money today to build infrastructure that generates revenue over several years.

That gap between upfront investment and future returns is especially important in capital-intensive businesses.

The question is whether its AI computing revenue, satellite services and launch operations can support the enormous investment programme.

🛰️ 4. Starlink Could Be More Than a Satellite Internet Business

AI is attracting the headlines, but Starlink remains another important part of the SpaceX story.

Earlier this month, SpaceX announced plans to acquire low-band spectrum, moving it closer to competing with traditional mobile operators.

This could broaden the company’s opportunity beyond providing satellite internet to households and businesses.

The potential appeal is straightforward: satellite connectivity could complement terrestrial mobile networks, helping extend coverage and connectivity to areas where traditional infrastructure is limited.

However, competing with established telecommunications operators is not simply a matter of acquiring spectrum.

SpaceX must still address network capacity, service quality, regulatory requirements, pricing and the economics of expanding its offering.

If Starlink can successfully broaden its services, it could provide another source of recurring revenue.

That would make SpaceX less dependent on any single business line, although its various operations would still compete for capital.

🚀 5. Why Starship Remains Strategically Important

Another factor investors will be watching is the next Starship launch.

Starship is important not only as a rocket development programme, but also because SpaceX’s long-term ambitions depend on its ability to launch payloads at scale.

Citi analysts have described SpaceX’s launch capabilities as a foundational competitive advantage supporting its other businesses.

That argument makes sense: launch capability helps SpaceX deploy satellites, expand Starlink and pursue more ambitious space-based projects.

However, development programmes of this scale involve technical challenges, testing costs and uncertain timelines.

Progress could strengthen SpaceX’s competitive position, while delays or setbacks could increase costs and push out expected benefits.

For investors, the important question is how successfully SpaceX can translate its launch capabilities into commercial advantages across its broader business.

🔗 6. Could SpaceX and Tesla Eventually Be Connected More Closely?

There is another potential development attracting Wall Street’s attention: the possibility of a merger between SpaceX and Tesla.

The companies have an extensive working relationship, and Elon Musk is a major shareholder and CEO of both.

According to the report, some analysts expect a possible merger announcement by the end of 2027.

However, this remains speculation rather than a confirmed transaction.

A potential combination would raise questions about valuation