To The Moon

This technical review begins with CoreWeave (CRWV), a stock currently in focus. We examine what its break below $60 means as credit risk is repriced, then identify key technical levels for the Nasdaq, gold, crude oil, and the Hang Seng Index. The key question is whether the rebound after the sharp selloff can repair the technical damage and whether major support levels can hold.

Let’s start with CRWV.

CoreWeave: Credit Risk Repricing Pushes Shares Below $60

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Tradr 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CWVX)$ $Leverage Shares 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CRWG)$ $T-REX 2X INVERSE CRWV DAILY TARGET ETF(CORD)$ $Corgi CRWV 2x Daily ETF(CRWX)$

From a fundamental perspective, I would not overinterpret the sharp selloff in bonds issued by a lesser-known cloud service provider. CoreWeave has limited market share and market influence. I briefly reviewed its revenue scale and competitive position.

Its latest quarterly revenue accounted for 1.8% of the overall cloud market, placing it in the second tier. However, its Q4 2025 revenue represented 17% of the more specialized Neocloud market for AI computing capacity, making it a leading provider in this segment. It is far smaller than Amazon, Google, and Microsoft, but remains a significant AI infrastructure provider.

CoreWeave has not disclosed its customers, but concentration is very high. Its top three customers contribute over 70% of service revenue and likely include OpenAI and Nvidia. However, its services lack a strong moat, so customers have many alternatives. Several other figures also stand out. CoreWeave has about $104 billion in backlog, yet its free cash flow was more than $10 billion negative as of June 30, indicating weak cash conversion. Net interest expense also equals 22% of revenue. This suggests that it signs contracts first, then raises capital to build capacity. As of the end of June, remaining performance obligations totaled $103.7 billion, with 41% expected to be recognized within 24 months. Its backlog turnover ratio was only 0.1, pointing to weak execution.

Its sharp selloff reflects the same trend I discussed yesterday, as CDS spreads across many AI companies continue to widen. The bond market has started pricing in slower growth in capital expenditure.

However, this alone does not imply a broad selloff in U.S. equities or severe market fallout. Corporate bond yields are currently rising across the market.

However, corporate bond yields remain below their historical highs, while the increase in companies’ net interest expense has been moderate.

Based on current revenue levels across AI companies, high-yield rates could rise by another two percentage points before profits begin to decline. Therefore, this event reflects panic triggered by an isolated repricing of risk in the bond market, but it is unlikely to cause a broader selloff. Moreover, long-term Treasury yields have declined.

Next, let’s examine CoreWeave’s technical setup. Based on the two daily charts below, CRWV closed at $55.60, down 10.06% for the day. It broke below the key support level near $60 and closed below the previous low shown on the charts. The technical setup remains bearish, with no clear signal of a trend reversal. The key indicators are whether the stock can quickly reclaim $60 and whether any rebound can hold.

From a trend perspective, the stock is below its 50-day EMA at $84.57 and 200-day SMA at $92.44, forming a bearish alignment in which the price is below the short-term average, which is below the long-term average. The 50-day EMA is declining, while the 200-day SMA is flat to slightly lower. This signals clear short-term weakness, while the medium- and long-term trends have yet to recover. The stock is about 34% and 40% below these averages, respectively. Although the gaps are wide, they do not confirm a bottom.

The $60 area is now the most important technical zone. It previously provided support, but the latest close below it shows that buying demand failed to hold. If a rebound stalls at $60 to $62, this zone will be confirmed as resistance. If the stock quickly reclaims and holds above it, the breakdown may prove false.

CRWV’s sharp one-day decline indicates strong selling pressure. Although the stock rebounded from its $53.50 low, there is still no clear sign of stabilization. A higher low followed by a sustained move above $60 to $62 would support an improving structure. If the rebound fails and the stock falls below $53.50, weakness is likely to continue.

Hang Seng Index: Initial Stabilization After Sharp Selloff, 23,200 Is the First Recovery Hurdle

$HSI(HSI)$ $Hang Seng Index - main 2610(HSImain)$ $CHINA SOUTHERN THE HANG SENG TRANSACTIONAL OPEN INDEX OF SECURITIES INVESTMENT FUNDS(513600)$ $Hang Seng Index - Oct 2026(HSI2610)$ $恒生指数基金LOF(501302)$ $HSTECH(HSTECH)$

The Hang Seng Index remains driven by mainland economic and policy expectations, earnings from heavyweight constituents, and overseas interest rates. Stronger domestic demand, a stabilizing property market, and improving corporate earnings would support Hong Kong equity valuations. A weaker economic recovery or disappointing earnings could continue to limit any rebound. Lower overseas rates typically reduce pressure from Hong Kong financing costs and equity valuations, although the renminbi, cross-border capital flows, and global risk appetite also matter. The key issue is whether policy support can generate stronger demand and earnings.

The index is attempting to stabilize after a sharp selloff, but its bearish structure has yet to improve significantly. The five-day chart shows the index near 23,150.66, up about 0.92% for the day. However, it remains down about 4.84% over five days and 7.66% over one month, so the current rebound has recovered only a limited share of the earlier losses. The four-hour chart shows a price near 23,062.98. Although the charts use different timestamps, both show the index above 23,000 but still below resistance near 23,200.

On the four-hour chart, lower rebound highs and lower lows maintain a bearish structure. The index recently fell sharply after losing 23,800 and 23,600. The latest candle reached a low near 22,803.77 before recovering, indicating some buying demand at lower levels. However, a single rebound is insufficient to confirm a bottom and is better viewed as an initial recovery within the broader decline.

The first resistance level is 23,200. A clear four-hour close above 23,200, followed by a successful retest, would increase confidence in further gains. Reclaiming 23,500 would indicate a stronger recovery from the latest selloff. However, the previously lost 23,600 to 23,800 zone may still create resistance. Near-term strength alone would not confirm a broader trend reversal.

On the downside, 23,000 is the nearest psychological level, while 22,800 marks the latest low. Both support levels still require confirmation. If the index loses 23,000 again, watch whether buying emerges near 22,800. A clear four-hour close below this zone followed by a failed recovery would support a continuation of the bearish structure. A brief break followed by a rapid recovery should be distinguished from a sustained breakdown.

The index remains in an initial recovery within a bearish structure. Holding 23,000 and breaking above 23,200 could extend the rebound toward 23,500. A renewed break below 23,000 would shift attention back to buying support near 22,800.

Nasdaq: Near-Term Correction Continues, Support Near 29,000 Awaits Confirmation

$Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 - Dec 2026(MNQ2612)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(NQmain)$ $Micro E-Mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(MNQmain)$

The Nasdaq remains driven by technology earnings expectations, AI capital expenditure, and the U.S. rate outlook. Technology valuations depend on whether growth in AI demand and orders can generate profits and cash flow. Higher financing costs and slower investment returns could increase valuation pressure. A weaker dollar and lower Treasury yields may ease some pressure, but a sustained recovery still requires strong earnings and guidance. Credit risk at individual AI companies may affect sector sentiment, while any broader spillover will depend on financing conditions and the performance of major technology firms.

The index remains higher for the year, despite a clear recent correction. The chart shows a year-to-date gain of about 13.46%, a one-month decline of about 5.04%, and a daily loss of about 2.90%. Intraday rebounds have reached progressively lower highs, while the index remained near its lows into the close. This indicates that near-term selling pressure has yet to ease significantly.

The chart shows the index at 28,968.3, within the 28,750 to 29,000 support zone and slightly below 29,000. Support is currently being tested. The demand zone and bullish harmonic pattern may support a rebound, but the previous rally from this area failed to continue. Buyers must hold the recent low, reclaim 29,000, and form a higher low to confirm stronger demand.

If support holds, initial resistance is near 29,500 to 29,750, followed by 29,900 to 30,000. A breakout and successful retest would support a stronger recovery. The index must then clear resistance near 30,100 to 30,200 before targeting the 30,600 to 30,700 supply zone. An effective break below 28,750 followed by a failed recovery would significantly weaken the bullish setup based on the demand zone.

Overall, the broader bullish outlook still requires technical confirmation, while the near-term correction continues. The 28,750 to 29,000 zone is now critical support. A sustained rebound requires this area to hold and the technical structure to improve.

Gold: Rebound Stalls, Key Support Faces a Near-Term Test

$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ $1-Ounce Gold - Dec 2026(1OZ2612)$ $E-Micro Gold - main 2612(MGCmain)$

Gold remains driven by U.S. rate expectations and the dollar. Persistent inflation may limit the Fed’s scope for rate cuts, while recent dollar weakness and lower Treasury yields have supported a rebound in gold. These opposing forces mean that upcoming economic data and changes in real yields will determine whether the recovery continues. The macro backdrop has improved at the margin, yet it remains insufficient to support a sustained rally.

The rebound from the lows has improved the technical structure, but it is still too early to confirm a broader trend reversal. Gold quickly recovered after breaking below its previous low, then rallied strongly and broke above a recent swing high. This formed the bullish break of structure (BOS) shown on the chart and signaled stronger near-term buying. However, the rebound lost momentum, and the price later fell below the $4,160 to $4,165 support zone. The earlier bullish breakout has yet to produce sustained gains. Attention should now focus on whether support attracts sufficient buying and whether gold can reclaim the lost levels.

The key support zone is currently $4,130 to $4,138, with $4,134.65 marking the bullish order block shown on the chart. Gold has recovered some ground, but it still needs to hold above this zone. Initial resistance is at $4,147, followed by $4,160 to $4,165 and $4,170 to $4,180. A gradual recovery of these levels, followed by successful retests, would support a stronger rebound. If buying support fails and gold breaks below its recent low, watch $4,100 and the $4,080 to $4,096 zone.

Overall, gold is testing support after a near-term pullback, while the conditions for a sustained rebound have yet to recover. Holding $4,134 to $4,138, then reclaiming and successfully retesting $4,160 to $4,165, would signal an improving structure. A renewed break below the recent low would shift attention to $4,100 and the $4,080 to $4,096 zone.

Crude Oil: Tight Supply Supports Prices as the Overhead Supply Zone Faces a Test

$United States Oil Fund LP(USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil - main 2612(CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil - main 2612(QMmain)$ $Brent Last Day Financial - main 2612(BZmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2612(MCLmain)$

Inventory draws and supply disruptions remain key sources of support for oil prices. Based on the cited supply and demand estimates, global crude inventories fell by about 1.9 million barrels per day in Q3 and are expected to decline further in Q4. Middle East supply disruptions have eased but remain above prewar levels, while strategic reserve releases may not fully cover the shortfall. Low inventories leave little buffer against further supply shocks, so renewed geopolitical tensions could amplify price volatility. Key factors include the pace of supply recovery, the scale of reserve releases, and actual inventory changes. A narrowing shortfall could reduce the supply risk premium, while a slower recovery would continue to support prices.

Oil has recovered after retreating from its highs and is again approaching the supply zone. A downtrend has yet to be confirmed. The five-day chart shows a latest price near $102, with oil retesting higher levels after rebounding from the lows. The four-hour chart shows a price near $100.42 and a renewed rebound after an earlier rejection from the supply zone. Together, the charts reflect an ongoing battle between overhead selling and buying support.

On the four-hour chart, oil rebounded strongly from a low near $86.86 before encountering resistance in the $101 to $103.50 supply zone. It then fell to around $95 and subsequently recovered. The bearish harmonic pattern indicates a potential pullback, but the latest rebound shows resilient buying. The pattern and projected path alone do not confirm exhausted momentum. The key signals are whether oil is rejected again within the supply zone and whether it subsequently breaks below the local low formed during the rebound.

If the supply zone continues to cap prices and a bearish structure is confirmed, watch for support near $99 to $100, followed by $97. A clear break below $97 and a failed recovery would support a further decline toward $93.50. Conversely, a breakout above the supply zone and the recent high near $104, followed by a successful retest, would significantly weaken the bearish harmonic setup. The previous high near $106.70 would then return to focus.

The current setup is best viewed as consolidation near the highs with fundamental support. A short position requires clear rejection from the supply zone. The $97 and $93.50 levels are conditional downside targets. Stops may be placed above the recent high, but the appropriate distance should reflect market volatility. A narrow stop alone may be insufficient.

The above is for market analysis only and does not constitute investment advice.