To The Moon

$Strategy(MSTR)$  

$Circle Internet Corp.(CRCL)$  

$Micron Technology(MU)$   

The Federal Reserve just held rates at 3.75%-4.00%.

Stocks finished higher.

And the easy conclusion is:

Fed stopped hiking = buy risk assets.

I think that is too simplistic.

This was not a dovish pivot.

It was closer to a hawkish pause.

Economic growth remains strong.

Inflation remains elevated.

And two policymakers actually wanted another 25bp hike.

So I am not positioning for:

“Cheap money is back.”

I am positioning for something more interesting:

“The cost of money may have stopped getting worse.”

Those are very different markets.

And they reward very different assets.

🧠 FIRST, UNDERSTAND WHAT JUST CHANGED

There are three stages in a monetary cycle.

🔴 STAGE 1: RATES RISING

Valuations compress.

Long-duration growth struggles.

Speculative assets become harder to own.

Cash becomes attractive.

🟡 STAGE 2: RATES PAUSE

This is where we are.

The valuation headwind stops intensifying.

But money is still expensive.

Companies therefore need real earnings growth to justify higher prices.

🟢 STAGE 3: RATES FALL

Liquidity expands.

Long-duration assets get another valuation tailwind.

Small caps, crypto and more speculative growth can outperform dramatically.

The mistake would be trading Stage 2 as though Stage 3 has already arrived.

So what do I want now?

🥇 1. PROFITABLE AI INFRASTRUCTURE

This remains my highest-conviction area.

Not every AI stock.

I want the companies sitting where actual dollars are being spent.

Think:

Cloud

↓

GPUs

↓

HBM / DRAM

↓

Networking

↓

Storage

↓

Power

Why does a Fed pause help?

Because AI infrastructure has two engines:

Earnings growth + valuation

During aggressive tightening, even spectacular growth can be offset by multiple compression.

Once rates stop rising, earnings can start doing more of the work.

That is why I continue watching names such as:

NVDA

MU

SNDK

and the hyperscalers funding the buildout.

My favourite part of this trade currently remains memory.

If AI capex stays strong and HBM demand spreads into DRAM, NAND and enterprise storage, MU and SNDK do not need aggressive Fed cuts to work.

They need demand.

That is exactly the kind of asset I want during a pause.

🥈 2. QUALITY GROWTH, NOT STORY GROWTH

This distinction becomes critical.

When rates actually collapse, almost everything with duration can rally.

During a pause, I prefer companies generating:

Revenue growth

Margins

Free cash flow

Pricing power

Real AI monetisation

Microsoft, Alphabet and Amazon are currently giving us a live experiment.

The market is asking:

Can AI spending turn into cash quickly enough?

The companies proving that equation deserve premium valuations.

The ones simply announcing bigger capex budgets may no longer receive a free pass.

My post-Fed preference is therefore:

AI cash machines > AI promises

🥉 3. BITCOIN, BUT WITH ONE CONDITION

BTC becomes particularly interesting here.

Bitcoin was around the low-$80Ks after the Fed decision.

A pause removes one potential headwind.

But I would not interpret that as an automatic signal for $100K.

Bitcoin wants:

Fed pause → yields stabilise → dollar weakens → liquidity improves

If that sequence develops, BTC becomes one of my favourite convex trades.

But if inflation stays sticky and Treasury yields climb anyway, the Fed pause alone is not enough.

That is why I would watch BTC alongside yields rather than simply celebrating the word “pause.”

And this matters for:

MSTR

COIN

CRCL

If BTC eventually reclaims momentum, those three express different parts of the crypto ecosystem.

MSTR = leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

COIN = trading and crypto participation.

CRCL = stablecoin infrastructure.

Same macro catalyst.

Completely different economics.

🟢 4. CRCL MAY HAVE AN UNUSUAL RATE SETUP

Circle deserves special attention because rates affect it in opposite directions.

Higher rates increase reserve income.

So theoretically, Fed cuts are bad for CRCL earnings.

But lower rates can simultaneously improve:

Liquidity

Crypto activity

USDC circulation

Payments

Stablecoin adoption

That creates the question I care about most:

Can USDC growth outrun falling reserve yields?

If yes, the market may begin treating Circle less like an interest-income vehicle and more like financial infrastructure.

That would be a major valuation transition.

So strangely, a gradual Fed easing cycle could ultimately become bullish for CRCL even while reserve yields fall.

The key is volume replacing yield.

🔵 5. SMALL CAPS ARE MY “NEXT”, NOT MY “NOW”

This is where I differ from the automatic “Fed pause = Russell 2000” trade.

Small caps are much more sensitive to financing costs.

They would benefit enormously from actual easing.

But rates are still 3.75%-4.00%.

Money is not cheap.

So I am interested, but not aggressively positioned yet.

I want:

Inflation cooling

Treasury yields falling

Fed cuts becoming credible

Then small caps could move much higher in my ranking.

Think of them as:

Stage 3 beneficiaries waiting in Stage 2.

🟡 6. GOLD: STILL USEFUL, BUT NOT MY HIGHEST-BETA RALLY TRADE

Gold has already had an extraordinary run.

It still benefits from geopolitical uncertainty, central-bank demand and concerns about long-term currency purchasing power.

But if the question is:

“What gives me the strongest upside in the next risk rally?”

I prefer productive growth assets and selected crypto.

Gold is more useful to me as:

portfolio insurance

rather than my main offensive position.

🔴 WHAT I WOULD NOT CHASE

This is equally important.

I would not interpret the Fed pause as permission to buy:

Unprofitable growth at any valuation

Highly leveraged companies

Every small cap

Every crypto token

Every AI stock

A pause does not eliminate the discount rate.

It merely stops increasing it.

At nearly 4% Fed funds, weak businesses still face expensive capital.

That is why I think quality remains unusually important during this stage.

🚦 MY POST-FED RANKING

If I were deploying fresh capital for the next leg:

🥇 1. AI INFRASTRUCTURE

NVDA, MU, SNDK and high-quality hyperscalers.

Why: earnings growth can carry the trade even without immediate cuts.

🥈 2. QUALITY MEGA-CAP GROWTH

GOOGL, MSFT, AMZN selectively.

Why: cash flow + AI monetisation + lower rate pressure.

🥉 3. BITCOIN / CRYPTO INFRASTRUCTURE

BTC first, then selective MSTR, COIN and CRCL exposure.

Why: potentially much larger upside if the pause eventually becomes easing.

4️⃣ SMALL CAPS

Watch now, become more aggressive when yields confirm.

5️⃣ GOLD

Useful hedge, but not my primary risk-on vehicle after such a large run.

6️⃣ CASH

Still valuable.

Because this Fed did not promise us easy money.

🔮 MY THREE MACRO SCENARIOS

🟢 30%: GOLDILOCKS

Inflation cools.

Growth stays resilient.

Yields fall.

The Fed eventually cuts.

This is the dream scenario.

My winners:

AI → BTC → small caps

Risk assets broaden significantly.

🟡 50%: HIGHER FOR LONGER PAUSE

This is my base case.

The Fed stays around current levels while waiting for inflation.

Growth remains decent.

Then the market becomes highly selective.

My winners:

Companies with genuine earnings and cash-flow growth.

AI infrastructure remains attractive.

Quality beats speculation.

🔴 20%: INFLATION REACCELERATES

This is the risk investors should not ignore.

The two dissenting votes matter.

If inflation reaccelerates enough to force another hike, the entire “pause rally” narrative changes.

Then I want:

More cash

Less speculative duration

Smaller crypto exposure

and much tighter risk management.

THE SIGNAL I AM WATCHING NOW

I am not actually watching the Fed funds rate most closely.

I am watching:

Treasury yields.

The Fed controls the overnight policy rate.

The bond market determines much of the discount rate investors actually feel.

If yields begin trending lower while earnings remain strong:

🟢 I become more aggressive.

If yields rise despite the Fed pause:

🟡 I remain selective.

If yields surge because inflation returns:

🔴 I reduce high-duration risk.

That is my confirmation signal.

MY CALL

The Fed pause is bullish.

But not because liquidity suddenly became cheap.

It did not.

It is bullish because one of the biggest valuation headwinds may have stopped getting worse.

That means I do not want the weakest assets simply because they are “rate sensitive.”

I want the strongest assets whose fundamentals were already working despite high rates.

Then, if actual easing arrives later, they receive a second tailwind.

That is why my sequence is:

NOW: AI infrastructure + quality growth

NEXT: Bitcoin and crypto infrastructure if liquidity confirms

LATER: Small caps when falling yields confirm easier financial conditions

The biggest opportunity may not come from predicting the first Fed cut.

It may come from identifying which assets can compound before the cut even arrives.

That is where I want my money working.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

After the Fed pause, what would you buy first: AI, Bitcoin, small caps or gold?

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