To The Moon

Hong Kong just unleashed SIX IPOs at once.

AI chips.

Memory.

Semiconductor packaging.

Energy storage.

Biotech.

Traditional medicine.

It looks like risk appetite is back.

But I think that is exactly the wrong conclusion.

Because Hong Kong's IPO market has quietly changed.

Earlier this year, buying almost any respectable IPO worked.

Now?

THE FREE LUNCH IS OVER.

The Q1 first-day break rate was only around:

10%.

By Q3?

Roughly:

45%.

Recent listings have produced everything from huge gains to brutal losses.

So I would NOT ask:

“Which IPO is hottest?”

I would ask:

“WHICH ONE SITS INSIDE THE STRONGEST EARNINGS CYCLE?”

And that gives me a very different ranking.

🔥 MY NO.1: HONGXINYU / HOSIN ELECTRONICS (02681)

This may not be the sexiest name of the six.

But strategically?

THIS IS THE ONE I FIND MOST INTERESTING.

Hongxinyu is a memory company.

Its products span:

embedded memory

SSDs

DRAM

mobile storage

memory chips.

Sound familiar?

This IPO is arriving while we are simultaneously seeing:

SNDK data-center revenue +61%

extraordinary NAND margins

AI server demand

hyperscaler capex remaining enormous

memory increasingly becoming an AI bottleneck.

That gives Hongxinyu something I value enormously:

A SECTOR TAILWIND I CAN ALREADY SEE ELSEWHERE.

Its offer range is:

HK$72.29-HK$82.90.

This doesn't mean I blindly subscribe.

But among these six?

🟢 02681 IS MY FIRST RESEARCH PICK.

Why?

Because I don't need to invent the demand story.

MU and SNDK are already showing us that memory economics are unusually strong.

🥈 NO.2: DENGLIN TECHNOLOGY (09917)

This is probably the IPO that attracts the most excitement.

Denglin develops AI computing chips.

And the offer price reaches:

HK$288.

That gives investors direct exposure to China's push for domestic AI compute.

The upside case is obvious.

If China continues substituting foreign accelerators with domestic chips, successful local architectures could command enormous strategic value.

But this is where I separate:

BEST STORY

from

BEST RISK/REWARD.

AI chip IPOs can attract extraordinary enthusiasm before investors have enough public-market evidence to judge:

sustainable margins

customer concentration

software ecosystem

competitive performance

valuation.

So Denglin may have the highest narrative upside.

But I would NOT automatically make it my biggest position.

🟡 HIGH POTENTIAL. HIGH EXPECTATION RISK.

🥉 NO.3: XINDE SEMICONDUCTOR (07672)

This is my sleeper.

Xinde provides:

SEMICONDUCTOR PACKAGING AND TESTING.

Including advanced packaging.

Everyone wants the glamorous AI chip.

But AI chips cannot function without packaging.

HBM cannot scale without advanced packaging.

Chiplets increase packaging complexity.

Higher-performance processors increase testing requirements.

So as semiconductor architectures become more complex:

PACKAGING BECOMES MORE VALUABLE.

That makes Xinde a potential picks-and-shovels play.

Offer range:

HK$8.60-HK$9.60.

Less glamorous than Denglin.

But sometimes the company selling the shovel has better economics than the miner looking for gold.

🔵 MY DARK HORSE: RELYEZ ENERGY (09621)

Energy storage is interesting for a completely different reason.

AI is creating an electricity problem.

Renewables create intermittency.

Data centres require reliable power.

Grid modernisation requires storage.

So energy storage sits at the intersection of:

AI electricity demand

renewable energy

grid stability

electrification.

Offer range:

HK$8.54-HK$11.10.

I would put this below semiconductors because the energy-storage industry can be brutally competitive.

Technology matters.

Pricing matters.

Margins matter.

But structurally?

ENERGY MAY BECOME THE NEXT AI BOTTLENECK.

That keeps 09621 on my radar.

🧬 HEMAY PHARMA-B (00054)

This is a completely different bet.

Hemay is developing proprietary drugs for:

autoimmune diseases

tumours.

Offer range:

HK$15.50-HK$18.90.

Biotech can generate enormous returns.

But pre-commercial biotech investing is fundamentally different from buying memory or semiconductor infrastructure.

You are underwriting:

clinical data

regulatory approvals

trial timelines

funding

pipeline probability.

One successful molecule can transform the company.

One failed trial can destroy the thesis.

So for me:

🟡 SPECIALIST SPECULATION.

Not my preferred trade simply because six IPOs arrived together.

🌿 NEAUTUS / XINHEHUA (02206)

Traditional Chinese medicine is potentially defensive.

But compared with:

AI compute

memory

semiconductor packaging

energy storage

I see less obvious structural acceleration.

That doesn't make it a bad company.

It simply means:

OPPORTUNITY COST MATTERS.

If I am deploying scarce capital, I want exposure where earnings have the strongest potential tailwind.

🔥 SO HERE IS MY RANKING

For MY style of investing:

🥇 02681 HONGXINYU / HOSIN ELECTRONICS

MEMORY

🟢 Strongest visible cycle.

🥈 09917 DENGLIN TECHNOLOGY

AI COMPUTE

🟢 Highest upside story.

🔴 Highest expectation risk.

🥉 07672 XINDE SEMICONDUCTOR

PACKAGING & TESTING

🟢 My picks-and-shovels sleeper.

4️⃣ 09621 RELYEZ ENERGY

ENERGY STORAGE

🟡 Strong secular story, tougher economics.

5️⃣ 00054 HEMAY PHARMA-B

BIOTECH

🟡 Huge optionality, binary risk.

6️⃣ 02206 NEAUTUS

TRADITIONAL MEDICINE

⚪ Potentially defensive, but weakest fit with my current growth thesis.

🧠 BUT HERE IS THE MORE IMPORTANT TRADE

I would NOT subscribe equally to six IPOs.

And I definitely would not use:

MARGIN FINANCING

simply because an IPO is heavily oversubscribed.

That game becomes dangerous when first-day failure rates rise.

A 30x subscription ratio tells you:

people want the allocation.

It does NOT tell you:

the stock is undervalued.

Those are completely different things.

🔥 THIS MAY ACTUALLY BE GOOD FOR HONG KONG

The death of the “buy every IPO” trade sounds bearish.

I think it may ultimately be healthy.

Because capital begins differentiating between:

quality

and

hype.

Between:

earnings

and

narratives.

Between:

scarcity

and

valuation.

That is what mature markets are supposed to do.

And the six IPOs launching together create a fascinating experiment.

Investors can choose between:

DRUGS

ENERGY

PACKAGING

AI CHIPS

TRADITIONAL MEDICINE

and

MEMORY.

Six industries.

Six stories.

One pool of capital.

MY CALL

If I had limited money and HAD to choose from this group?

I would not chase the IPO with the loudest AI label.

I would start with:

02681 HONGXINYU.

Then:

07672 XINDE

for the picks-and-shovels semiconductor angle.

And I would keep:

09917 DENGLIN

as the higher-risk, potentially higher-reward AI compute bet.

Why put memory first?

Because there is a major difference between:

hoping an industry becomes hot

and

seeing the industry's economics already explode.

SNDK just showed us data-center storage growing 61%.

Memory margins are extraordinary.

AI infrastructure spending remains enormous.

That doesn't guarantee Hongxinyu succeeds.

IPO valuation, customer quality, margins and execution still matter.

But it gives me something I want before risking capital:

CONFIRMATION FROM THE REST OF THE SUPPLY CHAIN.

Hong Kong's IPO market may therefore be entering a much more interesting phase.

Not:

BUY EVERYTHING.

But:

BUY THE BOTTLENECK.

And among these six?

Memory, AI compute and advanced packaging are where I would look first.

I am not a financial advisor. Trade wisely, Comrades!

If you could choose only ONE of these six IPOs, would you take memory, AI chips, advanced packaging, energy storage or biotech?

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