To The Moon

BK Trading — Weekly Market Preview

Week of Monday 2 – Friday 6 November 2026

The week in short. Rates are still going up — the Fed held at 3.75–4.00% but December is near-certain; keep rate-sensitive bets small. America votes Tuesday — don’t trade the night; the calmer days after the count are the better moment. Palantir reports Monday evening — our teaching case in a stock priced for perfection.

Confidence: high on the schedule (confirmed dates); medium on the Australia/UK rate rises (~90% priced, not promised); low on anything marked as an estimate — flagged at the end.

1 · Economic Calendar

The Fed held and called it a decision, not a pause. Warsh kept the rate at 3.75–4.00% in a 10–2 vote; Cook and Hammack wanted a rise now. When officials dissent that way, the next move is more likely up than down. The Fed can afford to wait because the job market is cooling on its own — September added just 29,000 jobs against 90,000 expected, unemployment is 4.2%, wages grew 0.1% on the month. The inflation problem is oil above US$100 from the Iran conflict, not pay packets. So the Fed waits for December and lets the data work. Every economist polled expects the hike on 9 December.

Times in SGT. Clocks changed in the US on Sunday 1 Nov, so SGT now = ET + 13h. The calendar capture below is GMT+9 — subtract one hour for SGT.

Monday. China’s Caixin/RatingDog manufacturing PMI prints at 09:45 SGT — September’s 52.1 was the year’s best, and above 50 means expansion. In the US evening, ISM manufacturing lands at 23:00 SGT; last time 54.5, with a hot 77.9 on prices — the line to watch with oil above US$100. Our ~55 estimate is an outside guess; the capture showed no consensus.

Tuesday. The RBA decides at 11:30 SGT — markets price about 90% odds of a fifth hike this year, to 4.85%; watch the Australian dollar. Then America votes — don’t trade the night. At 23:00 SGT, JOLTS shows September job openings (7.08 million in August); a falling number confirms the cooling trend.

Wednesday. ADP’s private-jobs estimate at 21:15 SGT (last +90k) and ISM services at 23:00 SGT (last 54.9) together say whether weak hiring was a blip — two days before the official report.

Thursday. The Bank of England decides at 20:00 SGT — about 90% odds of a hike to 4.00%, with UK inflation at 3.5%. If Australia and the UK both raise while America holds, the rate gap supporting the US dollar narrows a little. Also: weekly jobless claims (last 194k) and oil inventories (last draw 1.9M barrels).

Friday — the main event. US October payrolls at 21:30 SGT. Last month: +29k jobs, 4.2% unemployment, no consensus yet on the capture. September’s lesson: forecast +90k, result +29k — when the guesses spread that wide, the reaction matters more than the number.

Figure 2 — Economic calendar (times GMT+9). Source: Investing.com, 31 Oct 2026.

@TigerStars

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