To The Moon

Hey Tigers 🐯!

Bitcoin has rebounded substantially since July. But crypto trading activity has yet to follow with the same strength.

For $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$, that creates an interesting earnings setup.

US Tiger Research Team, maintains a BUY rating and $250 price target, even as the firm reduces its near-term earnings forecasts.

The question for investors:

Can Coinbase’s shares anticipate the next crypto recovery before trading volumes confirm it?

Here is how Tiger’s thesis fits together—and where the numbers still look challenging.

1️⃣ The Setup: A Recovery in Prices, but Trading Remains Soft

There are two different recovery signals here.

Revenue is still expected to decline sequentially and remain substantially below the prior-year level.

Adjusted EBITDA, however, is expected to improve from 2Q.

Coinbase may be moving toward better sequential profitability while still operating well below the previous cycle’s earnings levels.

That distinction helps explain why Tiger can remain constructive on the stock while forecasting a relatively subdued quarter.

2️⃣ Trading Volumes: Coinbase Is Holding Up Better Than the Industry

The report’s industry data shows that spot trading volume declined 6.5% QoQ to $2.44T in 3Q, following a roughly 20% decline in 2Q.

Coinbase’s tracked spot volume declined only 2% to $140.9B.

The positive signal is relative resilience.

Coinbase’s tracked activity contracted less than the broader market, supporting Tiger’s view that its market position remains resilient.

But the absolute picture still matters:

Higher crypto prices have yet to produce a broad recovery in trading participation.

Separately, Tiger’s company model forecasts $151B in total trading volume, including $26B in retail volume and $118B in institutional volume. The tracked spot-volume figure and the model’s total-volume forecast are separate measures and should not be treated as interchangeable.

3️⃣ Why Tiger Thinks the Volume Recovery Can Come Later

Tiger’s historical reference is the 2022–23 crypto cycle.

Bitcoin bottomed in 4Q22. By the end of 3Q23:

• Bitcoin had risen approximately 63%.

• COIN shares had gained approximately 112% over the same nine-month period.

Yet industry spot trading volumes had not sustained an immediate recovery.

After an initial bounce in 1Q23, volumes declined through the following two quarters, reaching $1.18T in 3Q23.

The decisive rebound arrived in 4Q23, when industry spot volume more than doubled to $2.44T.

The sequence matters:

Bitcoin and COIN had already repriced before the stronger volume recovery became visible.

Tiger believes the current gap between rising prices and subdued activity is consistent with that earlier pattern.

This supports its willingness to maintain BUY before volumes accelerate.

However, the historical comparison remains a framework for the thesis. It does not establish when the current recovery will broaden—or guarantee that the same sequence will repeat.

4️⃣ Where Revenue Comes From: Trading and Services Both Remain Under Pressure

Tiger forecasts two major revenue streams for 3Q26:

💱 Transaction Revenue

Within transaction revenue, Tiger forecasts:

• Retail transaction revenue: $433M

• Institutional transaction revenue: $96M

Retail trading remains particularly important to the revenue model.

Tiger raised its assumed retail transaction fee rate from 1.60% to 1.68%.

That higher assumption helps offset weaker trading volumes, allowing the firm to keep its overall revenue forecast almost unchanged.

🔗 Subscription and Services

The $549M forecast sits within management’s $500M–$580M guidance range.

The detailed model includes approximately:

• $277.5M in stablecoin revenue

• $87.5M in blockchain rewards revenue

Subscription and services provide another substantial source of revenue, but Tiger still expects the segment to decline slightly from 2Q.

The model currently points to stabilization across parts of the business, with a stronger recovery still ahead in Tiger’s forecasts.

5️⃣ Why Cut Earnings if Revenue Is Almost Unchanged?

This is the central near-term tension.

Tiger’s 3Q revenue forecast moves only from $1,188M to $1,189M.

Its adjusted EBITDA estimate falls from $285.2M to $247.4M, a 13% reduction.

The main reason: higher expected sales and marketing spending.

Tiger’s projected adjusted EBITDA margin falls from 24.0% to 20.8%.

That is still above 2Q’s 17.0%, but below what the firm previously expected.

For investors, this creates two separate questions:

Can trading activity recover?

And how much of the resulting revenue will reach earnings after expenses?

Both matter to the investment case.

6️⃣ The Expectations Gap: Tiger Is Below Consensus on Profitability

Tiger’s forecasts are close to consensus on revenue, but more cautious on earnings.

Consensus figures are those reproduced in the October 20 report.

The contrast is notable.

Tiger forecasts higher total trading volume than consensus, yet lower total revenue and adjusted EBITDA.

Its subscription and services assumptions are lower, while transaction expense is higher:

$185M versus consensus of $177M.

The largest headline difference is at the GAAP bottom line.

Tiger expects a net loss, while consensus expects a profit.

The earnings debate therefore extends beyond whether customers trade more. Revenue mix, fee rates and costs also shape the outcome.

7️⃣ What Changes in 4Q?

Tiger’s model anticipates a stronger fourth quarter, although it also trims its profitability forecast for that period.

The revised model raises the assumed retail transaction fee rate from 1.50% to 1.60%.

That supports higher revenue expectations despite an unchanged total trading-volume forecast.

However, higher spending absorbs part of the revenue improvement.

Tiger’s detailed model projects a 30.3% adjusted EBITDA margin in 4Q, compared with 20.8% in 3Q.

The firm therefore still expects meaningful sequential operating improvement.

The near-term earnings cuts temper the pace of the recovery without removing the recovery from its model.

8️⃣ Beyond Crypto Trading: A Broader Platform for the Next Cycle

Tiger also argues that Coinbase could participate more broadly in the next cycle than it did previously.

Two products stand out.

📈 Equity Trading

According to the report, Coinbase now offers stock trading to U.S. customers.

Tiger sees equity trading as a way to expand engagement beyond crypto.

A broader product offering could create more opportunities to acquire customers and retain their assets and activity.

🎯 Prediction Markets

The report states that prediction-market revenue grew 106% QoQ in 2Q, exceeding $100M on an annualized basis.

The annualized qualifier matters: this is a revenue run rate, rather than $100M of revenue earned during the quarter.

Tiger views prediction markets as another transaction-revenue opportunity.

Its broader argument is conditional:

If the anticipated crypto bull market develops, Coinbase could capture more users and a greater share of their crypto and non-crypto trading activity.

9️⃣ Regulation: A Constructive Direction With an Uneven Path

Tiger remains constructive on the longer-term direction of U.S. crypto regulation, while acknowledging legislative setbacks.

The report highlights:

• A September 15 Senate procedural vote on CLARITY that failed 49–50.

• Earlier 15–9 bipartisan approval in the Senate Banking Committee.

• An SEC crypto-asset interpretation, joined by the CFTC, which Tiger views as progress toward clearer treatment of digital assets.

These are developments described in the October 20 research report.

Tiger’s conclusion is that greater regulatory clarity remains possible over time, but the legislative path is uneven.

Regulatory progress remains part of the thesis, with timing uncertainty still attached.

🔟 The Bigger Model: Why 2027 Matters to the $250 Target

Tiger’s valuation looks beyond the weak near-term earnings picture.

Its detailed model forecasts:

Dollar amounts are rounded from the report’s detailed model.

The 2027 recovery assumptions are substantial.

Tiger forecasts 57% growth in total trading volume, accompanied by higher revenue and a much stronger adjusted EBITDA margin.

Its retail assumptions help explain the expected earnings sensitivity:

The model assumes stronger retail volume despite a lower fee rate.

For the full year 2026, Tiger raises its revenue forecast from $5,180M to $5,223M, while cutting adjusted EBITDA from $1,231.3M to $1,182.9M.

That repeats the same pattern seen in the quarterly revisions:

A slightly stronger revenue outlook, accompanied by more cautious earnings expectations.

💰 What Supports the Price Target?

Tiger maintains its $250 target, based on 21.5× its 2027E adjusted EBITDA estimate of $2.91B.

The report cites three reasons for the valuation multiple:

• High earnings sensitivity to a crypto-market recovery.

• A broader product portfolio than in the previous cycle.

• An improved ability to remain profitable on its chosen profitability measure during depressed trading activity.

The share price shown in the report is $171.07 as of October 20, 2026.

That is the report’s reference price, rather than a current market quote.

The target depends heavily on the anticipated recovery in 2027 earnings.

1️⃣1️⃣ What Could Break the Thesis? ⚠️

🏛️ Regulatory Risk

Crypto assets face uncertainty across major economies, including anti-money-laundering and environmental considerations.

Government restrictions or support can materially affect both crypto prices and Coinbase’s business outlook.

🔐 Cybersecurity Risk

As a custodial platform, Coinbase is exposed to hacking and potential losses of customer funds.

🪙 Crypto-Price Risk

Coinbase’s revenue and profitability remain closely linked to crypto-asset prices.

The company has limited control over that external driver.

🏁 Competition

The industry continues to attract new products, innovation and competitors.

Coinbase may need substantial investment to maintain its position, which can constrain profitability.

1️⃣2️⃣ What Should Investors Watch Next? 👀

The report points to several questions that will help test the recovery thesis:

Trading participation: Do stronger crypto prices begin translating into broader activity?

Retail economics: Can retail volume recover while fee rates evolve?

Expense discipline: Does marketing spending generate enough additional activity to support better earnings?

Services revenue: How do stablecoin and blockchain-related revenues develop?

Product expansion: Can equities and prediction markets deepen customer engagement?

2027 earnings: Does the business begin progressing toward the recovery embedded in Tiger’s valuation?

Tiger’s BUY case rests on Coinbase’s sensitivity to the next crypto cycle, even while its near-term forecasts remain cautious.

The opportunity depends on that expected recovery becoming visible in customer activity, revenue and profitability.

🎁 Your Turn, Tigers

Would you buy $COIN before trading volumes recover—or wait for the earnings to confirm the cycle?

Which matters most to your thesis: Bitcoin prices, retail activity, expense control or the broader product platform?

Source: US Tiger Securities, Bo Pei, CFA, “3Q26 Preview: Bitcoin Recovery Leads Trading Volumes,” October 20, 2026. Ratings, targets, forecasts and consensus comparisons reflect that report’s publication date. Historical performance does not guarantee future results. This article is a research summary for discussion, not personalized investment advice.