To The Moon

⚠This morning, $UOB(U11.SI)$ registered its largest single-day drop since April 2025 when it tumbled as much as 5.3% on volume that is 14 times more than its daily average, according to Bloomberg

📢The sharp reaction followed UOB’s pre-market third quarter (3Q26) earnings release, where its net income of $1.25 billion missed consensus expectations by 5%

However, not all analysts view this pullback negatively

✍Macquarie Research (MQ) summarises the good and bad of UOB’s results and why UOB remains the only bank in Singapore that they have an Outperform rating on

Read on for excerpts from the research report published this morning on 4 November 2026, as well as important disclaimers:

3Q26 PATMI S$1.25b, -15% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) +18% year-on-year (YoY), ex one offs in 3Q25

• PATMI was 5% below VisibleAlpha consensus driven by Net Interest Income and trading/other income

• Guidance for 2027 was introduced: around 5% loan growth, positive net interest income growth, mid-high single-digit fees and operating expenditure growth, credit cost 25-30bps

First impressions of the results

What looks good: Asset quality held up, with the total credit cost in line at 24bps. The Greater China Commercial Real Estate (CRE) portfolio shrank 5% QoQ with special mention loans marginally lower and around flat Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) and cover. Wealth fees grew 18% YoY / 6% QoQ driving total fee growth of 19% YoY / 10% QoQ. Total asset under management was flat QoQ at S$204 billion, indicating a rising invested portion.

What could be better: Net interest margin (NIM) compression QoQ of 6bps and Net Interest Income (NII) was a miss. Trading income was weak, though the bank reported customer-related activity was strong.

What looks interesting: The fully loaded CET1 ratio declined to 14.0% (-1.0ppt QoQ), which is at the bank's target level. This is despite only a 2% increase in RWAs, suggesting the impact was from mark-to-market impacts on equity.

MQ has an Outperform rating on UOB

UOB remains the only bank of the three with valuation support, currently at a 30% P/E relative discount and 50% price-to-book relative discount. MQ has an Outperform rating with a 12-month target price of $45.29, based on a Gordon Growth Model stock methodology.

Note:

Macquarie Research is independent from the Warrants business, what the Macquarie Warrants desks quote from Macquarie Research may not reflect the complete analysis of Macquarie Research on the relevant company over time.

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Trading today's move with UOB call and put warrants

For investors seeking to express a short-term view on UOB following today's earnings-driven volatility, structured warrants can provide a leveraged alternative to trading the shares directly.​​​​​​​

Bullish on a Recovery?

Investors who believe the market has overreacted to the earnings miss and expect UOB shares to rebound may consider UOB call warrants warrants. Call warrants generally rise in value when the underlying share price moves higher, allowing investors to gain leveraged exposure with a smaller initial capital outlay compared to purchasing the shares outright.

Expecting Further Weakness?

Conversely, investors who believe today's sell-off could continue may consider UOB put Warrants. Put warrants are designed to benefit from declines in the underlying share price, offering a way to potentially capitalise on negative sentiment without short-selling the stock.

Compare warrants before you trade

Macquarie Warrants has call and put warrants tracking UOB that vary in tenure, effective gearing (how much the warrant moves for a 1% move in UOB shares), and time decay.This explains why the call and put warrants in the table below have moved to different degrees:

​​​​​​​The UOB call warrants have made losses between 29% to 57% while the put warrants have gained between 20% to 127%.​​​​​​​

To select the most appropriate warrant to trade, an investor may wish to use the Warrant Selector which provides an estimation on the price performance and maximum holding period of the various UOB call/put warrants quoted on tight spreads, based on an investor’s target entry and exit price of UOB shares. The investor can then choose amongst them based on his/her risk profile.

Remember: Warrants are leveraged instruments. While gains can be magnified if the market moves in your favour, losses can also occur more rapidly, and investors may lose their entire investment.

List of UOB call and put warrants on tight spreads:

$UOB MB eCW270225(9R7W.SI)$

$UOB MB eCW270329(SNXW.SI)$

$UOB MB ePW270930(VB4W.SI)$