To The Moon

After Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, the $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ gained 0.96 per cent on Wednesday and the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ rose 1.64 per cent. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ advanced 6.73 per cent, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ gained 6.10 per cent and $Apple(AAPL)$ rose 5.36 per cent as investors favoured large technology companies with stronger profit and cash flow.

Semiconductors moved in the opposite direction. Micron fell 6.99 per cent, Sandisk lost 7.90 per cent, Nvidia declined 3.12 per cent and Marvell dropped 7.03 per cent. Investors did not buy every AI asset; they reduced exposure to companies with heavier capital requirements, higher valuations and greater policy sensitivity. The first post-election move was a redistribution of risk, not a broad technology rally.

Oil fell nearly 9 per cent as de-escalation hopes increased

On Thursday morning in Beijing, WTI crude had fallen 8.82 per cent and Brent had declined 9.13 per cent. After the Democratic sweep, markets increased the probability of de-escalation between the US and Iran and reconsidered the prospect of commercial traffic returning to the Strait of Hormuz. Lower oil can ease inflation and rate pressure, supporting valuations for large technology shares.

The Strait had not returned to normal commercial traffic, however, and no final agreement had been announced. Oil reflected a rapid reduction in the war premium rather than the removal of supply risk. A breakdown in negotiations could lift crude prices and inflation expectations again. The durability of the large-cap rally therefore depends partly on oil staying lower, not simply on the election-day reaction.

Qualcomm fell 7.52 per cent after-hours as handset weakness outweighed automotive growth

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ closed up 5.33 per cent and fell 7.52 per cent after results. Fourth-quarter financial-year 2026 non-GAAP revenue declined 7 per cent to $10.442 billion, while non-GAAP earnings fell 28 per cent to $2.17 a share. Handset-chip revenue dropped 26 per cent to $5.14 billion as higher memory and component costs reduced purchasing capacity among smartphone manufacturers.

Automotive revenue was the bright spot, rising 89 per cent to nearly $2 billion and setting a quarterly record. Qualcomm reiterated its $5 billion financial-year 2027 data-centre revenue target and expects non-handset revenue to grow by more than 60 per cent. Automotive and data centres have not yet fully replaced handset earnings. Next-quarter earnings guidance of $2.15 to $2.35 a share had a midpoint below prior market expectations, putting profit pressure first in the share-price reaction.

Arm grew revenue by 27 per cent and still declined after-hours

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ closed down 5.28 per cent and lost another 1.83 per cent after results. Second-quarter financial-year 2027 revenue rose 27 per cent to $1.443 billion, while adjusted earnings were $0.52 a share. Licence and other revenue increased 50 per cent to $773 million, royalty revenue grew 8 per cent to $670 million and data-centre royalties doubled.

Licensing delivered the strongest growth, while royalties expanded more slowly. Licensing depends on new designs and contract timing; royalties more directly reflect chip shipments. Investors therefore continued to ask when enthusiasm for AI designs would become larger terminal volumes. Arm had no obvious shortfall, but its valuation requires faster conversion through royalties and deliveries of its own silicon.

Coherent's after-hours rebound provided a different answer from optical interconnects

$Coherent(COHR)$ closed down 5.98 per cent and rebounded 4.97 per cent after results. First-quarter financial-year 2027 revenue increased about 50 per cent to $2.37 billion, while non-GAAP earnings were $2.09 a share. The company guided next-quarter revenue to $2.55 billion to $2.75 billion and non-GAAP earnings to $2.28 to $2.48 a share.

$Qualcomm(QCOM)$ faced declining handset demand and Arm still needed licences to produce more royalties. Coherent's high-speed optical demand was already visible in revenue and guidance. Its 800G and 1.6T products and data-centre interconnect business offered a clearer growth source. The rebound showed that investors would still reward AI hardware when orders, revenue and profit had a more specific path.

Uber and Novo Nordisk were rewarded for higher-quality growth

$Uber(UBER)$ rose 4.91 per cent. Third-quarter revenue increased 10 per cent to $14.77 billion, Gross Bookings grew 20 per cent to $59.8 billion and non-GAAP earnings were $0.88 a share. Adjusted EBITDA reached $3 billion, while the fourth-quarter Gross Bookings outlook was $63.25 billion to $65.25 billion. Order growth, better margins and autonomous-driving commercialisation were appearing in the same set of results.

$Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ gained 4.95 per cent. Third-quarter sales reached DKK79.2 billion and grew 4 per cent at constant exchange rates. Obesity-care sales increased 22 per cent and adjusted operating profit rose 27 per cent. The company lifted full-year sales and operating-profit growth guidance to a range of negative 2 per cent to positive 2 per cent. Both companies showed why markets rewarded growth more clearly when profit and outlook improved at the same time.

Hong Kong technology shares rose 5 per cent as risk appetite spread

During Thursday's Hong Kong session, the $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ was up about 5 per cent. Xiaomi gained 7.93 per cent, Alibaba rose 5.86 per cent and Tencent advanced 5.28 per cent. The US election result, a large-cap technology rally and lower oil encouraged investors to raise exposure to Asian growth assets.

Part of the move still reflected improving risk appetite and short covering. The next confirmation must come from the renminbi, southbound flows and corporate earnings. Xiaomi hardware, Alibaba Cloud and Tencent advertising need steadier profit growth to convert a one-day rebound into a durable re-rating.

Today's earnings preview: Cloudflare and IREN report after-hours

$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ and $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ report after-hours on 5 November. Consensus expectations for Cloudflare are approximately $737 million in revenue and $0.34 in earnings per share, close to the company's previous revenue guidance of $736 million to $737 million. Large-customer growth, the developer platform, AI inference traffic and the effect of network costs on gross margin will be the main tests.

IREN also reports first-quarter financial-year 2027 results after-hours. Market expectations are approximately $222 million to $228 million in revenue and a loss of $0.67 to $0.72 a share. Investors will examine whether AI cloud contracts are becoming revenue, whether data-centre construction remains on schedule and whether financing costs are rising ahead of cash returns. These figures are consensus expectations, not company guidance or signed orders.

Certainty of returns drove the rotation within technology

The rise in large technology platforms, the decline in semiconductors and Coherent's after-hours rebound pointed to the same distinction. Platforms with steadier cash flow ranked first. Handset-chip companies facing structural demand pressure ranked lower. Optical-interconnect suppliers that converted AI orders into revenue and guidance could still be rewarded.

Three tests will determine whether the rebound lasts: whether lower oil persists, whether highly valued chip companies provide a clearer path to profit, and whether Cloudflare and IREN can show that AI software traffic and computing infrastructure are producing cash returns. Investors still believe in AI demand, but they are no longer applying one valuation standard to every company.

A note on sources: percentage moves for QQQ, SPY, Microsoft, Amazon, Apple, Micron, Sandisk, Nvidia, Marvell, Uber and Novo Nordisk use the 4 November US regular-session close. Earnings-reaction exception: Qualcomm, Arm and Coherent use extended trading after their results. Company figures come from the current disclosures of Qualcomm, Arm, Coherent, Uber and Novo Nordisk. Cloudflare and IREN timing comes from company investor-relations information; preview figures are market consensus expectations. Crude-oil and Hong Kong moves use prices available on the morning of 5 November in Beijing, with Hong Kong figures from the live session. Company guidance does not equal a signed order and does not allocate fixed revenue to suppliers. The interpretation of capital rotation, valuation and market expectations is analysis. This is personal analysis and not investment advice.

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