The 7% Conundrum: When to Hold Tight or Cut and Run
In the topsy-turvy world of investing, where fortunes rise and fall faster than a soufflé in a wind tunnel, there exists a steadfast rule that refuses to go quietly: the 7% rule. Over the years, I’ve seen this rule save portfolios from disaster and, ironically, cost investors some of their greatest gains. So, should you swear by it or bend the rules? Let’s dissect this simple yet controversial strategy that can define your success in the stock market. Walking the Tightrope: Risk, Reward, and the 7% Safety Net The Safety Net or the Straitjacket? The 7% rule dictates that if a stock falls 7% below your purchase price, you should sell without hesitation. It’s a principle rooted in William O'Neil's CAN SLIM strategy, designed to prevent emotional investing and safeguard capital. And yet, I’ve
Earnings for coming week starting 16Sep24 - what does FedEx's earnings say about the market outlook?
Earnings Calendar (16Sep24) Q3/2024 has started and a few interesting earnings are coming in the coming week. These include Factset, FedEx and Lennar. Let us look into FedEx. Observations of recent performances: Revenue grew from $47.4 billion in 2015 to 87.6 billion in 2024. This is a decline compared to the $93.5 billion in 2022 and $90.1 billion in 2023. The gross profit margin for the 10-year median stands at 21.3%. The free cash flow for the 10-year median margin stands at 2.0% And the 10-year CAGR is 15.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) has grown from $3.65 in 2015 to $17.21 in 2024. This shows good cost management. However, the best year for earnings per share is 2021 which clocked $19.45 for EPS. The current P/E ratio is 16.2 is attractive. More importantly, the outlook of FedEx can be
#rookiemistakes Do fellow rookies learn from my mistake now. When crunching your take profit sales and buy backs over estimate your fees by about %0.05 or like me you'll set your margins too small and loose $0.01 rather than gaining your projected small penny profits. Good luck out there
I'm going long on $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$, banking on a potential rate cut from the Fed to spark a rally reminiscent of Nvidia's legendary surge. When the Fed pivots, TLT could skyrocket, and I'm positioning for a piece of the action
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ share price is heading for a pullback after continuously risen with an impressive increase of 44.19%. TSLA share price decline would signal a broader market decline in other sectors. The next market opportunities are likely to stem from upcoming economic data releases! Notably, the inflation report due on Thursday, July 11, is a crucial data point that could disrupt present market trend. Traders have increase bullish bets on bonds ahead of the Fed Chair’s testimony to Congress and the consumer price index release this week. If Powell's speech or Thursday’s inflation data bolsters expectations for a rate cut this year, these bets will benefit. Recommending to purchase Tresaury ETF such as $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT
still equities but other sectors beaten down like consumer staples and discretionary and healthcare. can also buy tlt bond etc to prepare for interest rate cut. it's coming ...
The 7% Conundrum: When to Hold Tight or Cut and Run
In the topsy-turvy world of investing, where fortunes rise and fall faster than a soufflé in a wind tunnel, there exists a steadfast rule that refuses to go quietly: the 7% rule. Over the years, I’ve seen this rule save portfolios from disaster and, ironically, cost investors some of their greatest gains. So, should you swear by it or bend the rules? Let’s dissect this simple yet controversial strategy that can define your success in the stock market. Walking the Tightrope: Risk, Reward, and the 7% Safety Net The Safety Net or the Straitjacket? The 7% rule dictates that if a stock falls 7% below your purchase price, you should sell without hesitation. It’s a principle rooted in William O'Neil's CAN SLIM strategy, designed to prevent emotional investing and safeguard capital. And yet, I’ve
Earnings for coming week starting 16Sep24 - what does FedEx's earnings say about the market outlook?
Earnings Calendar (16Sep24) Q3/2024 has started and a few interesting earnings are coming in the coming week. These include Factset, FedEx and Lennar. Let us look into FedEx. Observations of recent performances: Revenue grew from $47.4 billion in 2015 to 87.6 billion in 2024. This is a decline compared to the $93.5 billion in 2022 and $90.1 billion in 2023. The gross profit margin for the 10-year median stands at 21.3%. The free cash flow for the 10-year median margin stands at 2.0% And the 10-year CAGR is 15.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) has grown from $3.65 in 2015 to $17.21 in 2024. This shows good cost management. However, the best year for earnings per share is 2021 which clocked $19.45 for EPS. The current P/E ratio is 16.2 is attractive. More importantly, the outlook of FedEx can be
[US Election Series #02] Finding Certainty Amid Election Uncertainty: Defensive Assets Are a Must!
Hello, Tigers!Welcome to the second article in our US Election series! In this piece, I’ll focus on how to find relatively certain investment opportunities amid the uncertainties of the election season.Ps: In the previous article, I highlighted a bullish opportunity in $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ following its initial surge and trading opportunities in $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ and US Treasuries:Article link: [US Election #01] Tesla soar 10% overnight: What new opportunities arise with the US election?Market Overview (2024/06/17-2024/06/30)In the recent period, global major indices have shown mixed performance. US small-cap stocks have seen signific
[US Election Series 01] Tesla soar 10% overnight: What new opportunities arise with the US election?
Hello, Tigers!This is the first article in Tiger_Academy's special series on the US election~Last night, Tesla surged 10% intraday, marking its second-best single-day gain of the year. From a technical perspective, Tesla's daily K-line broke out of the downward trend channel that started in July 2023, turning bullish.Over the past week (2024/06/25-2024/07/02), Tesla's stock has risen by 26.66%, and the double-long Tesla ETF (TSLL) has soared an astonishing 55.85%!Two main reasons account for Tesla's significant gains:Tesla delivered 443,956 vehicles in the second quarter, surpassing Wall Street's average expectation of 439,302.Elon Musk, representing traditional American manufacturing and industri
Why now is a good time to invest in long-term bonds despite the Fed’s hawkish stance?
Hello, Tigers~On the evening of the 25th, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivered a speech on monetary policy. Bowman stated that there would be no rate cuts in 2024 and that the Fed might delay rate cuts until 2025: “We are not yet at a point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate. Given the risks and uncertainties in my economic outlook, I will remain cautious when considering future changes to the policy stance.”The Fed’s latest dot plot from June shows that 4 members do not expect any rate cuts this year, 7 members expect one rate cut, and 8 members expect two rate cuts. No one expects three or more rate cuts this year, which is significantly more hawkish compared to the previous dot plot. In March, 10 members anticipated three or more rate cuts!Given the lowering
Get Two Streams of Cash Flow with Regular Savings Plan in Dividend Funds
Hi tigers!Today, I'd like to introduce you to a beginner-friendly, low-volatility, and regularly dividend-paying investment: Dividend Funds.Additionally, I'll also show you how to get two significant streams of cash flow! Ready to learn how? Let’s dive in:1. Choose Dividend Funds to Earn Your First Stream of Cash Flow1.What Are Dividend Funds?Dividend funds are investment funds that regularly pay dividends to investors. They typically invest in assets that generate steady income, such as bonds, high-dividend stocks, and Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs).The returns from dividend funds primarily come from two sources: capital gains and dividends.Capital Gains: These are the profits made from the appreciation of the fund’s assets in the market.Dividend or Interest Income: This refers to
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ share price is heading for a pullback after continuously risen with an impressive increase of 44.19%. TSLA share price decline would signal a broader market decline in other sectors. The next market opportunities are likely to stem from upcoming economic data releases! Notably, the inflation report due on Thursday, July 11, is a crucial data point that could disrupt present market trend. Traders have increase bullish bets on bonds ahead of the Fed Chair’s testimony to Congress and the consumer price index release this week. If Powell's speech or Thursday’s inflation data bolsters expectations for a rate cut this year, these bets will benefit. Recommending to purchase Tresaury ETF such as $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT
Lesson 2: Why do "Cognitive Biases" always lead people to make mistakes?
Hello Tigers!In the last class, I used three investment scenarios to help you understand what behavioral finance is. You should have noticed that behavioral finance permeates all aspects of investment, constantly influencing our investment decisions.In this class, I will take you deeper into the classic theory of behavioral finance: "Cognitive Biases".What are cognitive biases?In simple terms, it implies that you're unable to perceive things accurately as you wish. If you're still unclear, I'll elaborate further with two sections below.1.Do you really understand a company?Let's first talk about a common cognitive bias: Do you really understand a company?Many will first get to know a company before making investment decisions. They believe that without a thorough understanding of a company,
Lesson 9: Avoiding 3 traps to win in long-term returns
Hello, Tigers!In the last lesson, we learned three methods to find opportunities for profit during times of panic. I believe you've gained a lot from it. In this lesson, I will talk to you about three common traps in behavioral finance and how to avoid them, so you can win in long-term returns.1.Refuse emotional tradingThe first trap: Emotional trading.Emotional trading is one of the common trading pitfalls in behavioral finance.Simply put, emotional trading refers to irrational decisions made by investors in the face of market fluctuations due to emotions such as fear, greed, or anxiety. These decisions are often driven by emotions rather than rational thinking.Emotional trading can lead to many trading mistakes. For example, when the market is volatile, some people may hastily sell out o
#rookiemistakes Do fellow rookies learn from my mistake now. When crunching your take profit sales and buy backs over estimate your fees by about %0.05 or like me you'll set your margins too small and loose $0.01 rather than gaining your projected small penny profits. Good luck out there
I'm going long on $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$, banking on a potential rate cut from the Fed to spark a rally reminiscent of Nvidia's legendary surge. When the Fed pivots, TLT could skyrocket, and I'm positioning for a piece of the action