To The Moon

This is worth your time reading 

No Navida is the leader in chips 

Interesting watching NVDA drop while the broader AI story is still strong. Feels like the market isn’t just reacting to results anymore, but to expectations, valuation, and whether growth can keep surprising. Still learning, but this feels like a good reminder not to chase blindly.

It will up again to $250 soon ! Nvidia has its own charm ! 

🥶no gd, 2 bad, can't accept

Short answer: not materially in the near term, but the moat may narrow at the edges over time. Why NVIDIA still leads: 1. CUDA remains the moat Software lock-in is powerful. Enterprises have built workflows around CUDA, cuDNN, NCCL and Nvidia’s full AI stack. Switching cost is very high. 2. Best-in-class full stack Google TPU and Amazon Trainium are strong, but mostly internal workload optimisers, not broad ecosystem platforms at Nvidia’s scale. 3. Inference is the battleground Custom silicon can win in narrow inference tasks where cost per token matters. That can chip away at some share. Where risk is real: hyperscalers reserve proprietary chips for their own fleets compression / quantisation lowers compute intensity competitor ecosystems mature Where Nvidia stays dominant: frontier model

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Just dont panic when deep drop. as long as fundamental not change it will come back

Today, let’s talk about one of the hottest topics in the investment world recently: the sharp rally in the U.S. semiconductor sector. It is fair to say that, whether we look at the fundamentals and financial data or at market price performance, the semiconductor sector has become a major driver of the recent rise in U.S. equities, and arguably the dominant one. As we all know, in the recent performance of U.S. equity gains, large technology companies—especially the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—have delivered the largest share of the market’s beta gains. At the same time, in the upward revisions to average earnings-per-share expectations for the S&P 500, semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron have also made the biggest contributions. However, even in last week’s market ra

Side note: I am still curious as to why openai won't accelerate their plan to get listed. The AI bubble is slowly growing and better to step in and make a killing while the frenzy is still ongoing. I do not believe in openai's super long term viability, but in the short and near term, they have the brand recognition and should cash in as soon as possible, and leave investors holding the bag. I firmly believe that without being the first on the market, they would not be able to compete now. they simply cannot innovate at competitive costs, cannot make money and cannot produce a strong model that chokes out competitors.

I think any period before the AI bubble pops will be conducive for further growth, specifically for the companies that are directly involved with AI. So Meta, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, maybe Microsoft. So bofa will have to acknowledge that, because that is an obvious and "safe" answer. On the flipside, if bofa is worth their salt, they know that the bubble will eventually pop and that there's some elements of gambling on making good money before the house of cards come crashing down.

it's forward PE is low enough. good deal together with msft and meta. its a must buy.

obviously they want to get everyone trapped

NVIDIA can hold the narrative, but the bar is now extremely high. Three things must happen for $300 this year to be credible: 1. Big Tech capex beats again If Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all raise AI infrastructure guidance, NVDA’s backlog story strengthens materially. 2. Margins stay elite At $5T+, the market is paying for continued scarcity economics, not normal semiconductor margins. 3. Competition remains edge pressure, not core pressure Advanced Micro Devices, Google TPU and custom silicon can nibble at the edges, but hyperscaler demand is still expanding fast enough for NVDA to dominate the core. My view: Base case: $240 to $270 Bull case: $300+ if capex guides sharply higher and Blackwell supply ramps cleanly. Bear case: sell-the-news if hyperscaler spend merely meets lofty

NVIDIA at US$5T is still powerful, but risk/reward is more balanced. At ~20x CY27, execution must stay near flawless: Blackwell ramp, Rubin timing, and inference demand scaling. Upside remains, but multiple expansion is harder from here. Next likely challengers: • Advanced Micro Devices if MI-series keeps winning share • Broadcom via custom AI chips • Micron Technology if HBM remains tight • Alphabet if TPU becomes a cloud moat 70% to 60% AI share? Likely 2027 to 2028. CUDA lock-in, software moat, and ecosystem depth still protect NVDA. Share erosion should be gradual, not sudden.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range.

At the same time, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, but $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ fear index rose to 18 (from a low of 13.38 earlier this month), and market breadth deteriorated to the second worst level in history — this rally has been almost entirely driven by NVDA alone.

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ breaking $5T is impressive, but I’m not chasing it. What concerns me more is market structure: leadership is highly concentrated, VIX is rising off lows, and breadth is weakening. That makes the rally feel less stable even with NVDA driving new highs. I still respect its execution and CUDA ecosystem, but expectations are already very stretched at this level. On valuation, I understand the argument that it looks “cheap” versus other Mag-7 names on forward earnings, especially with strong CY27 projections. But the key risk for me is not the multiple — it’s the certainty embedded in long-term growth assumptions like $400B+ FCF and sustained 70% AI

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range. At the same time, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, but $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ fear index rose to 18 (from a low of 13.38 earlier this month), and market breadth deteriorated to the second worst level in history — this rally has been almost entirely driven by NVDA alone. Top 5 market caps NVDA is already the most valuable company in the world, but on a PE basis, it is actually the cheapest among the Mag-7. BofA releases the new research report: PT at $300, +44% upside CY27 revenue forecast: $360B (+66.7% YoY) CY27 EPS: $8.11 (+78.

Nvidia from $170-180. Now rise to $210++  Very hot! Lots of potential growth still as recently just signed contract with BB! Looking forward to both of their growth! To the Moon guys! 🚀💨🤩 

Nvidia back above $200 again feels like the market doing what it always does with this name — overthinking the dip, then quietly going back to the same conclusion: AI demand still isn’t slowing down. What’s been more interesting lately isn’t just Nvidia itself, but everything happening around it. Everywhere you look, companies are suddenly trying to bolt “AI coding” into their products — IDEs, dev assistants, workflow agents, the whole stack is getting crowded fast. Even frameworks like OpenClaw and newer libraries like “superpowers” are more about orchestrating agents and skills than raw coding power. It’s less about one killer app and more about everyone scrambling to own a piece of how software gets built now. At the same time, the frontier models (OpenAI, Claude, etc.) are becoming alm

This is worth your time reading 

Interesting watching NVDA drop while the broader AI story is still strong. Feels like the market isn’t just reacting to results anymore, but to expectations, valuation, and whether growth can keep surprising. Still learning, but this feels like a good reminder not to chase blindly.

No Navida is the leader in chips 

Today, let’s talk about one of the hottest topics in the investment world recently: the sharp rally in the U.S. semiconductor sector. It is fair to say that, whether we look at the fundamentals and financial data or at market price performance, the semiconductor sector has become a major driver of the recent rise in U.S. equities, and arguably the dominant one. As we all know, in the recent performance of U.S. equity gains, large technology companies—especially the SOX Philadelphia Semiconductor Index—have delivered the largest share of the market’s beta gains. At the same time, in the upward revisions to average earnings-per-share expectations for the S&P 500, semiconductor names such as Nvidia and Micron have also made the biggest contributions. However, even in last week’s market ra

Short answer: not materially in the near term, but the moat may narrow at the edges over time. Why NVIDIA still leads: 1. CUDA remains the moat Software lock-in is powerful. Enterprises have built workflows around CUDA, cuDNN, NCCL and Nvidia’s full AI stack. Switching cost is very high. 2. Best-in-class full stack Google TPU and Amazon Trainium are strong, but mostly internal workload optimisers, not broad ecosystem platforms at Nvidia’s scale. 3. Inference is the battleground Custom silicon can win in narrow inference tasks where cost per token matters. That can chip away at some share. Where risk is real: hyperscalers reserve proprietary chips for their own fleets compression / quantisation lowers compute intensity competitor ecosystems mature Where Nvidia stays dominant: frontier model

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Just dont panic when deep drop. as long as fundamental not change it will come back

It will up again to $250 soon ! Nvidia has its own charm ! 

🥶no gd, 2 bad, can't accept

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range. At the same time, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, but $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ fear index rose to 18 (from a low of 13.38 earlier this month), and market breadth deteriorated to the second worst level in history — this rally has been almost entirely driven by NVDA alone. Top 5 market caps NVDA is already the most valuable company in the world, but on a PE basis, it is actually the cheapest among the Mag-7. BofA releases the new research report: PT at $300, +44% upside CY27 revenue forecast: $360B (+66.7% YoY) CY27 EPS: $8.11 (+78.

Side note: I am still curious as to why openai won't accelerate their plan to get listed. The AI bubble is slowly growing and better to step in and make a killing while the frenzy is still ongoing. I do not believe in openai's super long term viability, but in the short and near term, they have the brand recognition and should cash in as soon as possible, and leave investors holding the bag. I firmly believe that without being the first on the market, they would not be able to compete now. they simply cannot innovate at competitive costs, cannot make money and cannot produce a strong model that chokes out competitors.

I think any period before the AI bubble pops will be conducive for further growth, specifically for the companies that are directly involved with AI. So Meta, Google/Alphabet, Amazon, maybe Microsoft. So bofa will have to acknowledge that, because that is an obvious and "safe" answer. On the flipside, if bofa is worth their salt, they know that the bubble will eventually pop and that there's some elements of gambling on making good money before the house of cards come crashing down.

NVIDIA can hold the narrative, but the bar is now extremely high. Three things must happen for $300 this year to be credible: 1. Big Tech capex beats again If Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet and Meta all raise AI infrastructure guidance, NVDA’s backlog story strengthens materially. 2. Margins stay elite At $5T+, the market is paying for continued scarcity economics, not normal semiconductor margins. 3. Competition remains edge pressure, not core pressure Advanced Micro Devices, Google TPU and custom silicon can nibble at the edges, but hyperscaler demand is still expanding fast enough for NVDA to dominate the core. My view: Base case: $240 to $270 Bull case: $300+ if capex guides sharply higher and Blackwell supply ramps cleanly. Bear case: sell-the-news if hyperscaler spend merely meets lofty

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ breaking $5T is impressive, but I’m not chasing it. What concerns me more is market structure: leadership is highly concentrated, VIX is rising off lows, and breadth is weakening. That makes the rally feel less stable even with NVDA driving new highs. I still respect its execution and CUDA ecosystem, but expectations are already very stretched at this level. On valuation, I understand the argument that it looks “cheap” versus other Mag-7 names on forward earnings, especially with strong CY27 projections. But the key risk for me is not the multiple — it’s the certainty embedded in long-term growth assumptions like $400B+ FCF and sustained 70% AI

NVIDIA at US$5T is still powerful, but risk/reward is more balanced. At ~20x CY27, execution must stay near flawless: Blackwell ramp, Rubin timing, and inference demand scaling. Upside remains, but multiple expansion is harder from here. Next likely challengers: • Advanced Micro Devices if MI-series keeps winning share • Broadcom via custom AI chips • Micron Technology if HBM remains tight • Alphabet if TPU becomes a cloud moat 70% to 60% AI share? Likely 2027 to 2028. CUDA lock-in, software moat, and ecosystem depth still protect NVDA. Share erosion should be gradual, not sudden.

it's forward PE is low enough. good deal together with msft and meta. its a must buy.

obviously they want to get everyone trapped

At the same time, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high, but $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ fear index rose to 18 (from a low of 13.38 earlier this month), and market breadth deteriorated to the second worst level in history — this rally has been almost entirely driven by NVDA alone.

Nvidia back above $200 again feels like the market doing what it always does with this name — overthinking the dip, then quietly going back to the same conclusion: AI demand still isn’t slowing down. What’s been more interesting lately isn’t just Nvidia itself, but everything happening around it. Everywhere you look, companies are suddenly trying to bolt “AI coding” into their products — IDEs, dev assistants, workflow agents, the whole stack is getting crowded fast. Even frameworks like OpenClaw and newer libraries like “superpowers” are more about orchestrating agents and skills than raw coding power. It’s less about one killer app and more about everyone scrambling to own a piece of how software gets built now. At the same time, the frontier models (OpenAI, Claude, etc.) are becoming alm

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ rose +4% yesterday, becoming the first company in the world to surpass a $5 trillion market cap, while also breaking out of a 10-month consolidation range.

Nvidia from $170-180. Now rise to $210++  Very hot! Lots of potential growth still as recently just signed contract with BB! Looking forward to both of their growth! To the Moon guys! 🚀💨🤩