To The Moon

After the Hong Kong market closed on May 14, $TENCENT(00700)$ released its Q1 2025 financial report.Following a previous quarter where Tencent significantly outperformed market expectations, with steady growth in both gaming and advertising, the company — like other Chinese tech giants — has re-entered an investment cycle. Thanks to excellent cash flow, it continues its aggressive share repurchase program while simultaneously increasing its AI investments.Since this report came just two months after the previous one — during a period impacted by tariff concerns — the market has started to reprice high-quality, non-U.S. assets. As a result, investor expectations ahead of Tencent’s Q1 release were very optimistic. Even without share buybacks, Ten

Here's the Breakdown for April CPI CPI in the United States decreased to 2.30 percent in May from 2.40 percent in April of 2025. The annual core CPI remained at a four-year low of 2.8%, unchanged from March and in line with market predictions. Food costs were up 2.8% compared with one year ago, after increasing by 3.0% YoY last month. Energy costs decreased by 3.7% YoY, after decreasing by 3.3% YoY in March.  Used cars and trucks prices increased by 1.5% YoY, after increasing by 0.6% in the previous month. Shelter costs were up 4.0% compared with one year ago, consistent with last month. I think the fed will not cut the rates, since the  markets are being manipulated by the administration, every single day with no end sight. Good for overall economy, not so for gold investme

Market Overview: Mixed Signals Amid Inflation Relief and Trade Uncertainty Global equity markets showed divergent performance on May 13, 2025, as investors digested a mix of inflation data, tech optimism, and lingering trade concerns. U.S. markets were split, with a tech-led rally pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped. European indices posted modest gains on improved sentiment, while Asian markets ended mixed amid global trade recalibrations. U.S. Markets: Inflation Eases, Tech Stocks Lead the Way Dow Jones: ▼ 269.67 pts (−0.6%) to 42,140.43 $DJIA(.DJI)$   S&P 500: ▲ 42.36 pts (+0.7%) to 5,886.55 $S&P 500

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April is out, and it has taken the market by surprise. Against a backdrop of persistent inflation fears, April's CPI came in notably lower than expected, sparking fresh optimism across Wall Street. Now, traders and investors alike are buzzing with one big question: Could this pave the way for a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September? Breaking Down the Numbers The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI rose by just 3.8% year-over-year, significantly lower than the 4.2% economists had anticipated. On a month-to-month basis, inflation ticked up by a modest 0.2%, the smallest increase in nearly two years. Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy prices, also eased, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% y

The headlines may say “US–China Trade Truce”... But what really happened under the surface tells a very different story. Over the weekend, a surprise trade deal was struck in Geneva — and while it may seem like both sides are easing up, the true strategic plays reveal something much deeper. Here’s what you need to know: 🔍 Tariffs Were Cut, But Not Gone US tariffs will drop to 30%, China’s to 10% But fentanyl-linked tariffs (20%), EV tariffs (100%), and solar tariffs (50%) remain untouched According to Bloomberg, final tariff levels will likely range between 10–34% ⚠️ The Real Battle: Rare Earth Minerals While the media focused on tariff cuts, the U.S. was really negotiating for access to rare earths — the metals that power EVs, robotics, semiconductors, and defense tech. China controls: 🏭

All eyes are on today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Economists expect a 0.3% increase in April, a rebound from March’s surprise dip into negative territory. But beyond the headline number, this CPI report is carrying unusual weight: it could be an early signal of how trade policy is bleeding into consumer prices—and ultimately, how the Federal Reserve might respond. While April's print may not reflect the full brunt of the tariffs yet, it could hint at what’s coming. The impact of tariffs on inflation tends to show up over a three- to six-month lag. If inflation accelerates more than expected, it may force the Fed to reconsider its expected timeline for rate cuts, which markets have been heavily betting on this year. Why This CPI Print Matters More Than Usual? Under normal conditio

My Initial Reaction to the Post-Tariff CPI Forecast I find the forecast of a 0.3% CPI rise in April quite significant, especially after a negative March. This shift suggests that inflationary pressures are starting to build, and I think it is a clear sign of the broader economic changes we are experiencing, which could affect consumer behavior in the coming months. CPI My Analysis of Tariffs and Their Impact on Inflation I believe the tariffs imposed as part of President Trump's trade war are beginning to take effect. The prediction that their full impact on inflation will be seen over the next three to six months aligns with my understanding of how trade policies influence consumer prices over time, potentially leading to sustained price increases across various sectors. My Expectations f

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for inflation, monetary policy, and market sentiment are critical in understanding the economic trajectory. Let's evaluate your questions in context. --- 1. Will April's CPI come in above expectations? Tariff Shock Lag: The forecasted 0.3% CPI increase suggests a rebound from March's negative reading. However, the full impact of tariffs typically lags due to supply chain adjustments and inventory management, making April's reading less likely to fully reflect the tariff impact. Expectations: April CPI may meet or slightly exceed expectations due to rising energy prices, seasonal demand factors, and modest tariff pass-through. However, a significant overshoot is unlikely until the tariff effects materialise over the next three t

I opened $iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLH)$  ,I bought TLH in anticipation of tomorrow's Consumer Price Index release, as the data could impact the bond market.

Overall industry trends in Q1: Consumption recovery supported results, domestic consumption of goods and services continued to pick up, headline companies (Tencent, Ali, Jingdong) reported healthy earnings results and have optimistic Q2 outlooks.Internet giants' AI capex is the focus of attention. both Tencent and Ali's spending in Q1 was not as aggressive as the market expected.Considering the uncertainty of high-end chip supply, the market consensus expects Ali and Tencent's capex in the March quarter to be around $35-40bn, and capex expectations for the full year of 2025 are not high, especially as Q2 also has short-term supply uncertainty.On the AI adoption front, growing AI inference demand will drive acceleration in Ali Cloud revenues (+17%); Tencent's progress in ad tech upgrades, A

U.S. to China from 145% to 30%, another 24% suspended for 90 days, China to U.S. from 125% to 10%, another 24% suspended for 90 days; reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. cut to 10%, China cut to 10%, and both sides have another 24% suspended.Summary: Much better than expectations.The talks are the two sides in the election cycle under the pressure of the "stop-loss" compromise: the Chinese side to cooperate in exchange for tariffs to reduce the pressure, the United States side to "pause" instead of "cancel" to maintain deterrence, the essence is still the"Time for space" expedient.The real test lies in: when the "joint statement" aura faded, the two sides in the 232 investigation, high-tech control and other structural contradictions to find a new balance.From "80%" to "24% + 10%": the art of neg

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is looming large, and it’s not just another data release—it’s the first real test of how President Trump’s tariffs are hitting American wallets. Economists are pegging a 0.3% uptick for April after a rare negative dip in March, but the stakes are sky-high. With tariffs expected to ripple through inflation over the next three to six months, this report could either cement or unravel the market’s hopes for a June rate cut. As the U.S. and China inch toward a tariff truce, could this CPI deliver a surprise lifeline—or a gut punch—to investors? Let’s break it down. The Tariff Tipping Point Trump’s trade war is no longer theoretic

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Trade Talks on edgeThe U.S. stock market experienced a relatively quiet week, with major indexes posting modest declines. The market sentiment was influenced by ongoing trade negotiations, corporate earnings reports, and sector-specific developments, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook among investors.The talks with Chinese officials follow the U.S. and United Kingdom reaching a preliminary trade deal. Investors hope this will lead to more agreements being reached quickly.The Fed maintained the funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing a cautious "wait and see" approach. He highlighted the importance of being data-dependent.Adding to the uncertainty, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Friday that the government may r

Key Events This Week: 1. April CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 2. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday 3. April PPI Inflation data - Thursday 4. April Retail Sales data - Thursday 5. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Thursday 6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday Markets also await the outcome of this weekend's US-China trade talks.

Public Holidays Singapore is closed on Monday, 12 May 2025 as we celebrate Vesak’s Day. There are no public holidays in America, China and Hong Kong. Economic Calendar (12May25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) Core CPI (MoM) is expected at 0.3% (up from 0.1%), and CPI (YoY) at 2.4%. These inflation figures are critical. If actual numbers exceed forecasts, it may signal rising inflationary pressures, potentially prompting a tighter Federal Reserve stance. CPI (MoM) at 0.3% (previously -0.1%) reinforces this trend. Core Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.3% (down from 0.5%) and Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.1% (down from 1.5%) suggest a slowdown in consumer spending, which could signal weaker economic growth. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at -26.4 points to c

Friday Market Wrap: Markets ended flat as investors paused ahead of high-stakes U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s trip is viewed as a potential inflection point, though one likely heavy on optics, light on substance. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Markets Reality Check: Even if tariffs are halved from 170% to 80%, the resulting regime would still be deeply restrictive. Markets rallied early Friday but faded as traders weighed the real-world impact of modest tariff rollbacks. Tariffs Policy Mood: Mixed Signals From the Top Trump’s social media post Friday ("80% tariff on China seems right!") was both a softening from earlier hardline rhetoric and a

Yes rate cut in jun. 

Don't All in.After the tariffs landed, the U.S. stock market is a little bit back to the soul of the meaning of fluctuations, a lot of people began to get excited, think the opportunity to come.But I'll be honest, don't get too excited, now this wave of rebound, more like a technical repair, not a trend reversal, at best, is a "dead cat jump".Simply put, the fundamentals did not keep up.The S&P 500 earnings per share estimate (EPS) for the coming year has been cut by Wall Street from +14.1% at the beginning of the year to +10.5%.That's not the worst of it, if U.S. GDP does fall between 0 and 1% as many now expect, then EPS will have to continue to be chopped to less than 5% to be reasonable, and right now the market isn't even reflecting that pessimism.Looking more closely at the secto

Why Inflation No Longer Drives Interest Rate Cuts—It’s About Tariffs Now For years, whenever the economy seemed too slow or prices were rising too fast, central banks—like the U.S. Federal Reserve—adjusted interest rates to keep things in balance. This system worked well when inflation was mostly caused by people spending too much or too little. But today, a new player has entered the scene: tariffs. And they’re changing the rules. The Old Way: Watching Inflation Like a Hawk Interest rates are kind of like the economy’s gas pedal or brake. When inflation (the general rise in prices) was low, central banks would cut rates to make borrowing cheaper, which encouraged people and businesses to spend more. When inflation was high, they’d raise rates to cool things down. This worked well when inf

Has it ever occurred to you that if you suddenly introduce sudden tariffs that vary greatly from country to country, you will face multiple practical obstacles at the customs operational level?Feedback from the current point of view, the actual possibility of landing almost 0, including several aspects:Technical bottleneck: classification identification and physical limitations of origin verificationComplexity of commodity classificationThe difference in duty rates between medical device parts and automotive parts may be as high as 30%, but it is difficult for the existing customs system to achieve accurate identification.For example, mixed-function electromechanical products (e.g., medical device housings containing sensors) may involve multiple tax code classifications at the same time,

Friday Market Wrap: Markets ended flat as investors paused ahead of high-stakes U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland this weekend. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s trip is viewed as a potential inflection point, though one likely heavy on optics, light on substance. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ Markets Reality Check: Even if tariffs are halved from 170% to 80%, the resulting regime would still be deeply restrictive. Markets rallied early Friday but faded as traders weighed the real-world impact of modest tariff rollbacks. Tariffs Policy Mood: Mixed Signals From the Top Trump’s social media post Friday ("80% tariff on China seems right!") was both a softening from earlier hardline rhetoric and a

After the Hong Kong market closed on May 14, $TENCENT(00700)$ released its Q1 2025 financial report.Following a previous quarter where Tencent significantly outperformed market expectations, with steady growth in both gaming and advertising, the company — like other Chinese tech giants — has re-entered an investment cycle. Thanks to excellent cash flow, it continues its aggressive share repurchase program while simultaneously increasing its AI investments.Since this report came just two months after the previous one — during a period impacted by tariff concerns — the market has started to reprice high-quality, non-U.S. assets. As a result, investor expectations ahead of Tencent’s Q1 release were very optimistic. Even without share buybacks, Ten

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is looming large, and it’s not just another data release—it’s the first real test of how President Trump’s tariffs are hitting American wallets. Economists are pegging a 0.3% uptick for April after a rare negative dip in March, but the stakes are sky-high. With tariffs expected to ripple through inflation over the next three to six months, this report could either cement or unravel the market’s hopes for a June rate cut. As the U.S. and China inch toward a tariff truce, could this CPI deliver a surprise lifeline—or a gut punch—to investors? Let’s break it down. The Tariff Tipping Point Trump’s trade war is no longer theoretic

Last Week's RecapThe US Market - Trade Talks on edgeThe U.S. stock market experienced a relatively quiet week, with major indexes posting modest declines. The market sentiment was influenced by ongoing trade negotiations, corporate earnings reports, and sector-specific developments, reflecting a cautious yet optimistic outlook among investors.The talks with Chinese officials follow the U.S. and United Kingdom reaching a preliminary trade deal. Investors hope this will lead to more agreements being reached quickly.The Fed maintained the funds rate at 4.25% to 4.5%, with Chair Jerome Powell emphasizing a cautious "wait and see" approach. He highlighted the importance of being data-dependent.Adding to the uncertainty, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned on Friday that the government may r

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for April is out, and it has taken the market by surprise. Against a backdrop of persistent inflation fears, April's CPI came in notably lower than expected, sparking fresh optimism across Wall Street. Now, traders and investors alike are buzzing with one big question: Could this pave the way for a Federal Reserve rate cut as soon as September? Breaking Down the Numbers The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the CPI rose by just 3.8% year-over-year, significantly lower than the 4.2% economists had anticipated. On a month-to-month basis, inflation ticked up by a modest 0.2%, the smallest increase in nearly two years. Core CPI, which strips out the more volatile food and energy prices, also eased, rising 0.3% month-over-month and 3.4% y

U.S. to China from 145% to 30%, another 24% suspended for 90 days, China to U.S. from 125% to 10%, another 24% suspended for 90 days; reciprocal tariffs, the U.S. cut to 10%, China cut to 10%, and both sides have another 24% suspended.Summary: Much better than expectations.The talks are the two sides in the election cycle under the pressure of the "stop-loss" compromise: the Chinese side to cooperate in exchange for tariffs to reduce the pressure, the United States side to "pause" instead of "cancel" to maintain deterrence, the essence is still the"Time for space" expedient.The real test lies in: when the "joint statement" aura faded, the two sides in the 232 investigation, high-tech control and other structural contradictions to find a new balance.From "80%" to "24% + 10%": the art of neg

All eyes are on today’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. Economists expect a 0.3% increase in April, a rebound from March’s surprise dip into negative territory. But beyond the headline number, this CPI report is carrying unusual weight: it could be an early signal of how trade policy is bleeding into consumer prices—and ultimately, how the Federal Reserve might respond. While April's print may not reflect the full brunt of the tariffs yet, it could hint at what’s coming. The impact of tariffs on inflation tends to show up over a three- to six-month lag. If inflation accelerates more than expected, it may force the Fed to reconsider its expected timeline for rate cuts, which markets have been heavily betting on this year. Why This CPI Print Matters More Than Usual? Under normal conditio

My Initial Reaction to the Post-Tariff CPI Forecast I find the forecast of a 0.3% CPI rise in April quite significant, especially after a negative March. This shift suggests that inflationary pressures are starting to build, and I think it is a clear sign of the broader economic changes we are experiencing, which could affect consumer behavior in the coming months. CPI My Analysis of Tariffs and Their Impact on Inflation I believe the tariffs imposed as part of President Trump's trade war are beginning to take effect. The prediction that their full impact on inflation will be seen over the next three to six months aligns with my understanding of how trade policies influence consumer prices over time, potentially leading to sustained price increases across various sectors. My Expectations f

Overall industry trends in Q1: Consumption recovery supported results, domestic consumption of goods and services continued to pick up, headline companies (Tencent, Ali, Jingdong) reported healthy earnings results and have optimistic Q2 outlooks.Internet giants' AI capex is the focus of attention. both Tencent and Ali's spending in Q1 was not as aggressive as the market expected.Considering the uncertainty of high-end chip supply, the market consensus expects Ali and Tencent's capex in the March quarter to be around $35-40bn, and capex expectations for the full year of 2025 are not high, especially as Q2 also has short-term supply uncertainty.On the AI adoption front, growing AI inference demand will drive acceleration in Ali Cloud revenues (+17%); Tencent's progress in ad tech upgrades, A

Market Overview: Mixed Signals Amid Inflation Relief and Trade Uncertainty Global equity markets showed divergent performance on May 13, 2025, as investors digested a mix of inflation data, tech optimism, and lingering trade concerns. U.S. markets were split, with a tech-led rally pushing the S&P 500 and Nasdaq higher, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped. European indices posted modest gains on improved sentiment, while Asian markets ended mixed amid global trade recalibrations. U.S. Markets: Inflation Eases, Tech Stocks Lead the Way Dow Jones: ▼ 269.67 pts (−0.6%) to 42,140.43 $DJIA(.DJI)$   S&P 500: ▲ 42.36 pts (+0.7%) to 5,886.55 $S&P 500

The April Consumer Price Index (CPI) data and its implications for inflation, monetary policy, and market sentiment are critical in understanding the economic trajectory. Let's evaluate your questions in context. --- 1. Will April's CPI come in above expectations? Tariff Shock Lag: The forecasted 0.3% CPI increase suggests a rebound from March's negative reading. However, the full impact of tariffs typically lags due to supply chain adjustments and inventory management, making April's reading less likely to fully reflect the tariff impact. Expectations: April CPI may meet or slightly exceed expectations due to rising energy prices, seasonal demand factors, and modest tariff pass-through. However, a significant overshoot is unlikely until the tariff effects materialise over the next three t

Public Holidays Singapore is closed on Monday, 12 May 2025 as we celebrate Vesak’s Day. There are no public holidays in America, China and Hong Kong. Economic Calendar (12May25) Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok) Core CPI (MoM) is expected at 0.3% (up from 0.1%), and CPI (YoY) at 2.4%. These inflation figures are critical. If actual numbers exceed forecasts, it may signal rising inflationary pressures, potentially prompting a tighter Federal Reserve stance. CPI (MoM) at 0.3% (previously -0.1%) reinforces this trend. Core Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.3% (down from 0.5%) and Retail Sales (MoM) at 0.1% (down from 1.5%) suggest a slowdown in consumer spending, which could signal weaker economic growth. The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index at -26.4 points to c

With US Non-farm payroll out last Fri, 04 Apr 2025, there will not be any economic reports in early part of the week of 07 Apr 2025. Focus on jobs (employment reports) will turn to inflation from mid-week onwards. Investors should (at least) take a look at the latest inflation report because it’s the first after the initial 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico, Canada and China (20%). Economic Reports. Below are US economic reports that will be out this week. Wed, 09 Apr 2025. US Fed’s FOMC minutes of meeting for March 2025. Not an economic report (per se) but it provides insight to FOMC sentiments towards inflation control, in light of global tariffs rollout. Thu, 10 Apr 2025. Consumer price index (CPI) for March 2025. US weekly jobless claims. Fri, 11 Apr 2025. US Producer price index (PPI) for

The headlines may say “US–China Trade Truce”... But what really happened under the surface tells a very different story. Over the weekend, a surprise trade deal was struck in Geneva — and while it may seem like both sides are easing up, the true strategic plays reveal something much deeper. Here’s what you need to know: 🔍 Tariffs Were Cut, But Not Gone US tariffs will drop to 30%, China’s to 10% But fentanyl-linked tariffs (20%), EV tariffs (100%), and solar tariffs (50%) remain untouched According to Bloomberg, final tariff levels will likely range between 10–34% ⚠️ The Real Battle: Rare Earth Minerals While the media focused on tariff cuts, the U.S. was really negotiating for access to rare earths — the metals that power EVs, robotics, semiconductors, and defense tech. China controls: 🏭

Here's the Breakdown for April CPI CPI in the United States decreased to 2.30 percent in May from 2.40 percent in April of 2025. The annual core CPI remained at a four-year low of 2.8%, unchanged from March and in line with market predictions. Food costs were up 2.8% compared with one year ago, after increasing by 3.0% YoY last month. Energy costs decreased by 3.7% YoY, after decreasing by 3.3% YoY in March.  Used cars and trucks prices increased by 1.5% YoY, after increasing by 0.6% in the previous month. Shelter costs were up 4.0% compared with one year ago, consistent with last month. I think the fed will not cut the rates, since the  markets are being manipulated by the administration, every single day with no end sight. Good for overall economy, not so for gold investme

The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ plunged 9.05% and 9.75% respectively last week, due to the sweeping U.S. tariffs imposed.Major market movers included $Apple(AAPL)$ (-13.6%), $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ (-14%), $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ (-11%), $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ (-11.3%), $Microsoft(MSFT)$ (-5%), $Broadcom(AVGO)$ (-13.5%), UnitedHealth (+1.8%), $TJX Companies(TJX)$ (+3.3%),

Key Events This Week: 1. April CPI Inflation data - Tuesday 2. OPEC Monthly Report - Wednesday 3. April PPI Inflation data - Thursday 4. April Retail Sales data - Thursday 5. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Thursday 6. MI Consumer Sentiment data - Friday Markets also await the outcome of this weekend's US-China trade talks.

I opened $iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLH)$  ,I bought TLH in anticipation of tomorrow's Consumer Price Index release, as the data could impact the bond market.

Has it ever occurred to you that if you suddenly introduce sudden tariffs that vary greatly from country to country, you will face multiple practical obstacles at the customs operational level?Feedback from the current point of view, the actual possibility of landing almost 0, including several aspects:Technical bottleneck: classification identification and physical limitations of origin verificationComplexity of commodity classificationThe difference in duty rates between medical device parts and automotive parts may be as high as 30%, but it is difficult for the existing customs system to achieve accurate identification.For example, mixed-function electromechanical products (e.g., medical device housings containing sensors) may involve multiple tax code classifications at the same time,

Why Inflation No Longer Drives Interest Rate Cuts—It’s About Tariffs Now For years, whenever the economy seemed too slow or prices were rising too fast, central banks—like the U.S. Federal Reserve—adjusted interest rates to keep things in balance. This system worked well when inflation was mostly caused by people spending too much or too little. But today, a new player has entered the scene: tariffs. And they’re changing the rules. The Old Way: Watching Inflation Like a Hawk Interest rates are kind of like the economy’s gas pedal or brake. When inflation (the general rise in prices) was low, central banks would cut rates to make borrowing cheaper, which encouraged people and businesses to spend more. When inflation was high, they’d raise rates to cool things down. This worked well when inf