Will pressure on the Fed change rate-cut expectations? At the margin, yes, but not in the way markets initially fear. Policy reality: The Federal Reserve’s reaction function remains anchored to inflation, labour data, and financial conditions. A subpoena does not alter the data path, nor does it grant the executive branch control over rates. Chair Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve are institutionally insulated from direct interference. Market perception: The bigger impact is on risk premia, not the dot plot. Any perceived erosion of independence forces markets to price uncertainty around future policy consistency, which can delay or shallow the expected rate-cut path even if inflation cooperates. Net effect for 2026: Rate cuts are still likely if disinflation continues, but the bar for
$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ 🧬 Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) — Inflection Analysis HIMS has already crossed the hardest line: profitability. But the next phase depends on how well it replaces GLP-1 tailwinds. After years as a growth-first DTC telehealth platform, HIMS delivered its first full year of net income in FY2024 — confirming a real business inflection. 📈 Inflection status: CONFIRMED POSITIVE (stabilizing) Revenue, margins, and cash flow have all turned sustainable. Atomic evidence: • FY2024 net income $126M vs -$23.5M in FY2023 • Q3’25 revenue $589M, +50% YoY • Monthly revenue per subscriber $80 vs $55 last year • Subscribers 2.47M, +21% YoY • Marketing spend down to ~40% of revenue (operating leverage) This is no l
🚨 Powell's Bombshell: DOJ Subpoena Rocks Fed Independence – Markets Tank, But Is This Your Epic Buy-The-Dip Moment? 📉🔥
$S&P 500(.SPX)$$SPDR Gold ETF(GLD)$ Whoa, folks – the financial world just got a massive shake-up! Jerome Powell dropped a video statement confirming the U.S. Department of Justice slapped the Federal Reserve with grand jury subpoenas, threatening criminal charges over his testimony on the Fed's HQ renovation project. He's calling it straight-up pressure from the Trump crew to bend monetary policy to their will, prioritizing public good over presidential prefs. 😤 This is Powell's first direct clapback after dodging Trump's jabs for over a year – and markets aren't loving it! U.S. equity futures nosedived more than 0.6% pre-open, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq both feeling the heat as investors freak over
🚨 Market Mayhem Ahead: Inflation Bombshells, Tariff Twists, and Credit Card Chaos Set to Ignite Volatility! 💥📉
Buckle up, traders and investors! This week is packed with high-stakes triggers that could swing rates, jolt the dollar, and shake up everything from banks to consumer stocks. We're diving deep into the chaos, from policy curveballs to data drops that might redefine your strategies. Let's break it down day by day, with the potential impacts that'll keep you on your toes. 🕵️♂️🔥 Monday: Trump's Bold Credit Card Rate Cap Sparks Panic Waves 😱💳 Fresh off the weekend, markets are buzzing over Trump's push for a temporary 10% ceiling on credit card interest rates, kicking in January 20. Lenders haven't fully digested this yet—expect sharp moves in credit card issuers' stocks as the gap closes. If companies swallow the profit squeeze, margins tank; if they pull cards en masse, political backlash
CHFJPY Aims $200 from Blue Box As Buyers Regain Control
Hello traders and welcome to a new blog post discussing about our blue box trading strategy. In this post, the spotlight will be on CHFJPY currency pair. The Yen pairs continue to rise as expected, with bullish cycles from last year appearing incomplete despite being in advanced stages. This presents more opportunities for buyers to enter the market from dips. Specifically, CHFJPY has been in the 3rd wave of a bullish cycle since September 2024. This bullish run is developing as an impulse wave structure within an extended 3rd wave, following the conclusion of the 2nd wave in February 2025. Since then, the 3rd wave has been extending. In December, wave 3 reached 2.618% of wave 1 from wave 2. However, the divergence from July 2025 has been erased, suggesting further upside potential. Furthe
BLDR Elliott Wave Bullish Structure Points Toward New All-Time Highs
Wave (II) Looks Complete, Right-Side Remains Bullish, and Wave (III) Targets Higher Prices Ahead Builders FirstSource (NYSE: BLDR) continues to show a strong bullish outlook based on Elliott Wave Theory. The monthly chart highlights an impressive impulsive advance into the peak of wave (I). After that strong rally, the stock entered a larger corrective phase. This correction formed a W-X-Y structure and likely completed wave (II) inside the blue box support area. Wave (II) Correction Likely Completed – Bullish Right Side Remains Intact During the correction, price tested key Fibonacci areas near 118.91 and the deeper 66.76 level. This zone created a major support region and helped the market stabilize. The Right Side tag still favors the bullish direction. The invalidation level remains fa
$Allegiant Travel(ALGT)$$Sun Country Airlines Holdings, Inc.(SNCY)$ $Delta Air Lines(DAL)$ ✈️💰📈 Allegiant buys Sun Country in a $1.5B airline power play 📈💰✈️ I am watching consolidation hit the U.S. airline sector in real time as Allegiant $ALGT announces a $1.5B all-cash acquisition of Sun Country $SNCY at $18.89 per share. $ALGT is down 3.9% on the headline, a classic acquirer dip, yet I am focused on the bigger picture. The stock is still +101% over the last nine months after breaking out to fresh highs last week, confirming institutional momentum, trend continuation, and capital rotation into profitable leisure airlines. Positioning is w
$JD.com(JD)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ 🚀🇨🇳📊 $JD Leads China Tech Breakout as $BABA Rips Higher $BABA +9.55%, $JD +4.24%, with $PDD, $TCEHY and $NIO all lighting up as Beijing stepped into the food delivery price war. This is not regulatory risk. This is Beijing forcing platform discipline so margins can expand instead of being destroyed by endless subsidies. 🇨🇳 China subsidises EV exports to dominate globally. 🇨🇳 China does not subsidise consumer platforms that burn cash for no strategic return. This move protects long-term earnings power across China tech. 📈 $BABA now trad
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ 12Jan26 ET 🇺🇸 | 13Jan26 NZT 🇳🇿 🔔 Live Market Update | Volatility and Flow Monday’s open saw $TSLA print a new high of the day as $30M+ in net short-dated, single-leg call premium hit the tape. That is real-time bullish flow pushing momentum and liquidity through the $450 zone as Bulls assert control. 📀 Structure and Key Levels The inverse head and shoulders continues to form. $TSLA has broken through $450 again and $453.60 now needs to hold to keep the breakout intact. The sharp $7 shake-out to $438
$Netflix(NFLX)$$Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ $Paramount Skydance Corp(PSKY)$ 🎬⚖️💥 The $WBD Takeover War Just Went Nuclear 💥⚖️🎬 I’m watching one of the most explosive media M&A fights in a decade unfold in real time, and it just escalated again. Paramount Skydance $PSKY has now gone on the offensive, formally suing Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD to force disclosure of its behind-the-scenes talks with Netflix $NFLX while simultaneously launching a proxy war to replace the WBD board and ram through its own $30 per share all-cash takeover bid. This is no longer a negotiation. This is a control battle. 📄⚔️ Legal and Boardroom Warfare Is Now Live
$SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 🚀💥 $SNDK just delivered one of the cleanest options alpha prints of 2026 and the tape tells me this move was not random, it was structured, hedged, and dealer driven. 🚀 You could have turned $317 into $4,001 on $SNDK with options On 05Jan26 the $400 call for the 30Jan26 expiry traded at $3.17, over 130% OTM. Today it printed $40.01 with spot pushing into the $388 to $395 zone. That is a 1,162% return in seven trading days. This is gamma, delta and volatility doing the heavy lifting, not luck. 📈 I
Fed Independence Shock: A Test of Nerves & A Reminder of What Really Drives Markets
🌟🌟🌟The US markets woke up rattled when Jerome Powell confirmed that the US Department of Justice had issued a grand jury subpoena to the Federal Reserve. This is a dramatic escalation in pressure from the Trump administration. For a moment, it felt like the ground shifted beneath investors' feet. A challenge to the independence of the Federal Reserve isn't just another headline. It strikes at the heart of US monetary credibility. The pre market dip reflected exactly that fear. Investors suddenly had to price in a new variable : political risk inside monetary policy, the kind that muddles rate cut expectations and injects uncertainty into every macro model. But then something important happened. The US market recovered. Not because the subpoena vanished. Not be
Yes, I feel, the current high geopolitical risk premium is a significant factor justifying further upside for gold & other precious metals in 2026. In the precious metals space, I think silver has more potential for stronger percentage gains, while gold can also be expected to perform well. Oil, however, faces a more bearish outlook due to a supply surplus if US manages to flood the market with Venezuelan & other sources. This along with expectations of central bank rate cuts and continued institutional buying, suggests potential for further price appreciation in gold, with some banks forecasting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce or higher in various scenarios. However, a sudden de-escalation of global tensions, which ideally would be welcome, could reduce this pre
A Fallen Owl or a Forgotten Compounder in the Making?
Duolingo’s share price collapse has been dramatic enough to reclassify it from ‘Magnificent Growth’ to something far less glamorous, closer to a forgotten compounder hiding in plain sight. Down roughly 67% from its record high and trading near the cheapest valuation it has seen since going public in 2021, the stock now sits in that uncomfortable no-man’s land where optimism has evaporated but fundamentals have not. The market’s judgement appears clear: $Duolingo, Inc.(DUOL)$ was a pandemic darling, and the party is over. I am not convinced that verdict holds up under scrutiny as we look towards 2026. This is not an argument about whether people will keep learning languages. It is an argument about whether the market is still valuing Duolingo as a
TSMC Q4 Preview: The AI Gatekeeper Takes Center Stage $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , the world's leading semiconductor foundry, will release its Q4 earnings report on January 15. The market is closely watching what kind of profit results this company, widely regarded as the ultimate "pick-and-shovel" play in the AI boom, will deliver. Option Market Signals Ahead of TSMC's highly anticipated earnings release on January 15, the options market is flashing cautionary signals as the put/call ratio has surged to an elevated 1.64 on total open interest of 1.76 million contracts, reflecting heightened demand for downside protection into the report. Implied volatility stands at 43.33%, commanding a substanti
AI Compute Demand Expectations Lift NBIS and CoreWeave AI infrastructure stocks moved sharply higher on Monday, with $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ surging more than 10% and $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ rising nearly 13%, as investor appetite for third-party GPU cloud providers rebounded. The rally was not driven by a single company-specific catalyst, but rather by a renewed repricing of sustained AI compute demand. As large language models iterate rapidly, hyperscalers are seeing growing needs for both training and inference capacity, prompting greater reliance on external GPU cloud platforms to boost flexibility and reduce infrastructure concentration risk. Nebius and CoreWeave are among the most dir
My stock in focus today is $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ , following news that Apple will partner with Google to integrate Gemini into the next generation of Siri. This move is a strong endorsement of Google’s AI leadership. It also reinforces the view that Gemini is becoming an industry-grade AI platform, not just an in-house tool. Strategically, the partnership positions Google as a key AI enabler even for rival ecosystems. If Siri is rebuilt around Gemini across on-device, private cloud, and external models, it highlights Gemini’s scalability and commercial readiness. As Wedbush’s Dan Ives noted, this was a “necessary move” for Apple—and a clear win for Google’s AI credibility. From an investment perspective, this strengthens Alphabet’s long-term AI mon
Citigroup (C) Higher Net Interest Income (NII) Expected
$Citigroup(C)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings (covering the period ending December 31, 2025) before the market opens on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, with a press release expected around 8:00 AM ET, followed by a conference call. This report comes amid a strong year for bank stocks, with Citigroup's shares up approximately 65% over the past 52 weeks, outperforming the broader market and financial sector. The bank is also in the midst of operational changes, including reported plans to cut around 1,000 jobs this week as part of broader efficiency efforts. Overall Expectations and Context Analysts anticipate a solid quarter driven by higher net interest income (NII), improved investment banking activity, and loan growth, though offse
If you think tmw’s discussion to lift the 2500 autonomous vehicle cap up to 90,000 will be a huge boost to $TSLA, I argue against it. Most critical investors are not sitting there wondering “how can we break through that 2500 ceiling”, but “when does Tesla remove the safety drivers of the first 10 Robotaxis “