# The Index Is Not the Whole Market My focus tonight is the gap between headline strength and participation underneath it. These are observations and plans, not a report of new trades I have executed. An index can look resilient while the average stock is having a much tougher time. That is what makes this market awkward: strength in a handful of large technology names is not necessarily a green light for every bullish setup on the screen. ## Looking underneath the headline I am watching the contrast between the major indexes, equal-weight stocks and smaller companies. The weaker picture in RSP and IWM makes me less comfortable treating a strong index close as broad confirmation. I would rather see more stocks joining the move than rely on the same leaders to keep carrying it. That does no
$Occidental(OXY)$ Occidental Petroleum (OXY) — Comprehensive Analysis Conclusion Occidental Petroleum (OXY) watchlist presents a mixed, valuation-supported but technically weak picture. The core case is a large-cap integrated oil & gas producer trading at a low absolute multiple (P/E TTM ~8.4x, forward P/E ~9.1x — both well below its own 3-year average of ~16.2x), with a dramatically deleveraged balance sheet (debt ratio down to 25.7% from 40.1%) and strong recent earnings growth. However, the stock is in a clear short- and medium-term downtrend, sitting ~2% below the average holder cost, with the analyst consensus target implying meaningful upside that the market has so far not delivered. The risk-reward skew is modestly positive on valu
$Micron Technology(MU)$ is the stock I’d put on the watchlist today because its fiscal Q4 results are due after the U.S. market close on September 30.  What makes this interesting isn’t just the earnings number. MU has become a key test of whether the memory boom can keep accelerating. Micron’s last quarter was exceptional: revenue reached $41.46B, up from $23.86B the previous quarter, while adjusted free cash flow was $18.3B. Its Cloud Memory and Core Data Center businesses also delivered very strong margins.  Now the market wants to know: • Can HBM and data-centre memory demand remain this strong? • Are memory prices still moving higher? • Can margins continue expanding? • What does management say about 2027 supply and demand? •
$Elixir Energy Ltd(EXR.AU)$ 1-Oct is just around the corner. Market should have sniffed something by now? But it seems more uncertain at the moment. The share price corrected significantly yesterday while bouncing back in a meaningful today. This is probably a good thing - the deal has not been wrapped up. As I cannot be further from the real action, I can only read the tea ☕ 🍀 🌿 from the charts... and all I can see is price action in the movement chart if any. A cup and handle formation has apparently been formed recently. After the handle formed, it is followed by a first higher low and higher high. 8.5 cents is a near term resistance line. After clearing that, the target for cup and handle is 10.8 cents. Secondary charts look good at th
Another one for the bears. 👇 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ just logged 10 straight sessions with more 52-week lows than 52-week highs while sitting within 2% of its highs. That’s an unusual divergence. Since 1990, this has happened only two other times: December 1999January 2000 Both occurred right around the peak of the Dot-Com Bubble. Does that mean the market is about to repeat 2000? No. But when the index is sitting near highs while breadth underneath is deteriorating this aggressively, it’s a signal worth paying attention to. Bears have a data point. Now they need the price action to confirm it. Markets are always moving - and sometimes, the best move is knowing what works for you. With Treasury yields, oil prices and rate expectations keeping markets
Coming into 2026, the promise was for lower interest rates and a booming economy. But reality has been far different. The 10-year treasury yield, which is a proxy for everything from mortgages to corporate debt, continues to rise and is now at a level not consistently seen since 2001. And mortgage rates have spiked more than a full percentage point since March and will likely climb over 7.25%, or more, in the coming weeks as higher rates move through the system. What does all of this mean for the market? I’ll get to that in a moment. Higher Rates and the Market Like it or not, interest rates are important for the economy and the market. Lowering interest rates is like adding fuel to a fire. But raising rates is like snuffing a fire out. And over the last few weeks, rates have risen rapidly
$SPX Crossed Last Week’s Low. The Downside Setup Is Still Active
$S&P 500(.SPX)$ MORE DOWNSIDE. ⚠️ Price crossed last week’s low and came close to triggering the Daily sell signal — but did NOT trigger it. The next level I’m watching: $SPX below 7,657 = A = C For $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ , 762 is the trigger. If that level breaks, watch for a potentially sharper bearish W3 decline. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ is already showing a bearish setup: • Bearish WXY structure confirmed • Bearish SMT with $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2612(NQmain)$ remains active • ABC downside targets are now in play The setup is getting more aggressive. 7,657 on $SPX and 762 on $
$SPX Lost 7,691. The Selloff Hit the Level We Were Watching
The stock market struggled to find footing today as a surge in U.S. Treasury yields continued to pressure risk assets. Both long- and short-term government bond yields pushed to levels not seen in decades, capping any meaningful rebounds in equities. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, marking its highest peak since 2007, while the 30-year yield surged to 5.62%, its highest mark since 2002. Adding to the bearish sentiment was a duo of weak economic reports. Data from The Conference Board revealed that U.S. consumer confidence has slumped to its lowest level since 2014, driven by anxieties over the cost of living and the labor market. This was followed by the Labor Department’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which showed U.S. job openings fell to 7.09 mil
$Qualcomm (QCOM) Slips -1.80% After Apple Patent Renewal Spike: Consolidation Near $184, Key $164...
📊 Market Recap As of September 30, 2026 (US Eastern Time), 'QCOM' closed at $184.10, down -1.80% on the day. The stock fell -$3.38 from the prior close of $187.48, with intraday trading ranging between $182.23 and $190.03. The closing price remains about 29.2% below the 52-week high of $259.92 and roughly 51% above the 52-week low of $121.99. The recent surge driven by Qualcomm's renewed patent licensing agreement with Apple has cooled, leaving the stock in a short-term consolidation phase. 🚀 Key Drivers Apple Patent Renewal: Qualcomm extended its patent licensing deal with Apple, fueling a historic one-day surge in Apple's market value and reinforcing Qualcomm's royalty revenue outlook. Profit-taking after spike: Following the sharp rally, QCOM is seeing technical pullback as capital flow
$Marvell Technology, Inc.(MRVL) Surges +4.51% to $263.27: AI Data-Center Momentum Charged, $280 R...
📊 Market Recap As of the latest U.S. trading session, 'MRVL' closed at $263.27, up +4.51% with a daily gain of $11.37. The stock remains about 20.2% below its 52-week high of $329.88 and has now decisively cleared the $250 psychological zone, ending near the upper end of its intraday range after trading between $256.88 and $264.40 on above-average turnover. 🚀 Key Drivers AI Data-Center Demand: Marvell's custom silicon and networking portfolio continues to benefit from the accelerating build-out of AI infrastructure, keeping institutional flow tilted to the buy side. Sector Momentum: Strength across high-multiple semiconductor names, including a sharp intraday push in Oracle and stabilisation in Microsoft, reinforced risk appetite for AI-exposed chipmakers. Analyst Reaffirmation: Huaxing Ca
📊 Market Recap As of the latest U.S. session, 'TQQQ' closed at $77.46, up +0.55% from the prior close of $77.04. The leveraged Nasdaq-100 ETF traded in a narrow range between $76.62 and $78.26, leaving it approximately 12.1% below its 52-week high of $88.09. Pre-market indications near $78.21 and after-hours action around $77.70 suggest limited directional conviction ahead of the next cash session.
$Intel(INTC)$ If you ask me what the most worth-holding stock in October is, yesterday I wouldn't have had a definitive answer — but today I can confidently say it's Intel. On Monday, a large Sell Call block opened, selling the October 16-expiry 130 Call $INTC 20261016 130.0 CALL$ , opening 52,000 contracts. Someone also opened a 160 Sell Call and an October 9-expiry 130 Sell Call, but both were under 10,000 contracts. Ordinary Sell Call block trades get absorbed into the options wall, but a 50,000-contract Sell Call block carries reflexivity. The effect of these massive seller block trades plays out in two phases: In the first phase, the validity of the block trade is confirmed
9/29 Strategy Outlook: AI Trade Cools, Capital Begins to Diverge
① What's Happening Today AI compute trade is cooling. The semiconductor index fell 1.7%, down as much as 3.6% intraday. CPU-related names like AMD, Intel, and ARM weakened. The core reason: the market is revising down expectations for CPU compute demand driven by Meta's Muse — the "buy up all the world's CPUs" trade logic is cooling. Meta falls 5%, AI application expectations begin to reprice. The market is waiting for OpenAI's developer conference on one hand, while starting to question the actual pace at which AI Agents will change consumer and business models. Meta has already rallied significantly in the short term, and its valuation has entered a higher range. Optical communications pull back in sync. CRDO fell 8.7%, with COHR, ALAB, and CIEN weakening. The market is reassessing optic
🏆The Road to Million Dollars Milestone | Video Episode 1: Mr. Liew's Story
One $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ LEAP Call became the turning point in his journey to $1M. When markets turned bearish, options helped him capture the rebound with greater upside potential and more flexible risk control. Stay tuned for more Million-Dollar stories. 👉Read the full interview: https://ttm.financial/post/605508218355760 The opinions, ideas and strategies expressed by the speaker represent the views of the speaker and not of Tiger Brokers (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. (“Tiger Brokers”) and its affiliates. Neither Tiger Brokers nor its affiliates shall be liable for the content of information provided. Not financial advice. Investment involves risk. This adv
Big Options Bets: Nasdaq 30,900 Puts Build as Gold Bulls Defend $4,200—Which Side Are You On?📈📉
The Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points in September, lifting the target range for the federal funds rate to 3.75%–4.00%. With inflation pressure prompting a shift in policy, rate expectations have again become a key driver of asset prices. Options positioning on September 25 showed a defensive tilt even as Nasdaq 100 futures rebounded: traders added near-the-money puts. Gold call positions expanded at higher strikes alongside downside protection, while new Bitcoin call positions appeared to reflect a short-term test of the upside. Against the backdrop of the rate hike, traders have not moved uniformly toward risk. The next question is whether prices can confirm the signals at key levels. The charts below show trading volume and open interest across major CME Group futures opti