To The Moon

🐾 Three things that could make Wall Street wag its tail — or bite back! Today is a big day for my trading watchlist. I have US September CPI inflation data, major financial-sector earnings, semiconductor equipment results, and Anthropic’s pre-IPO investor day to watch. My job as Options Puppy is simple: I don’t chase every green candle, and I don’t panic at every red candle. I sniff out opportunities and manage my risk! 🐶📈 🐶 1. 🇺🇸 September CPI — the inflation boss fight At 8:30pm Singapore time, the US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) arrives. This is the number that could make the market bark loudly. Investors are watching whether inflation is cooling or whether higher energy costs are keeping prices stubbornly high. * 🟢 Cooler-than-expected CPI: Investors may become more optimistic

Applying first-principles thinking means stripping away social norms, marketing hype, and emotional habits (reasoning by analogy) to look at the raw, undeniable truths of a situation, and building your logic up from scratch In this article, we would be discussing how we are going to do stripping away market analogy, social mimicry, and heuristic distortions to reveal core economic truths. 1. The Epistemology of First Principles in Personal Finance Most economic actors reason by analogy. When faced with a purchasing or investing choice, the natural human reaction is to copy existing models, rely on industry norms, or follow societal consensus. A consumer buys a new sports utility vehicle because peers in their income bracket drive similar vehicles; a retail trader buys a stock because its c

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$   Mathematical Money | October 14, 2026 COINBASE closed Monday at $180.39, which is 50% below its 52-week high of $361 and 1.7% under its 200-day average. I hold the shares, I write calls above them and puts below them, and I have not reduced the position. But I spent this week going through every business line properly, and the headline everybody repeated after the last quarter does not survive the check. I would rather be the one to say so. The illusion, first The reported line was that 48% of net revenue came from subscriptions and services, a record, and that Coinbase has successfully diversified away from trading. Here is what that leaves out. Subscription revenue was $727 million in Q4 2025. It was $55

Major banks reporting tonight, but other than net interest margins, should investors be looking at other key factors or drivers, which could likely affect the major banks holding up valuations? In this article, we would like to provide an analysis that evaluates the critical drivers beyond NIM that investors must track to evaluate bank valuation durability. 1. The Limitations of Net Interest Margin Primacy Net Interest Margin (NIM) measures the net yield earned on a bank's interest-bearing assets relative to its interest-bearing liabilities. During the initial phases of monetary tightening, NIM expansion served as the core engine powering bank profitability. Assets re-priced rapidly to higher market rates while deposit costs lagged due to sluggish deposit beta response. However, relying on

Semiconductor giants $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ TSMC and $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ ASML release their Q3 earnings, market attention focuses on whether corporate AI capital expenditure (Capex) remains structurally durable. In this article, we would like to share how investors can look out for the signals that TSMC and ASML earnings is giving for the AI Capex reality check. 1. Macro Backdrop: The Global AI Capex Expansion The technology sector’s multi-year rally has been underwritten by an unprecedented surge in capital spending among hyperscale cloud providers (Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta). Total AI-related Capex is projected to surpass $200 billion annually as tech leaders compete to

Asian semiconductor stocks just experienced a sharp selloff, with SK hynix, Samsung and Kioxia coming under heavy pressure as investors reassessed future memory supply and pricing power. Now, ASML is set to report its Q3 earnings, offering another important signal about the future of the AI infrastructure cycle. The key question is not simply how much ASML earned this quarter, but whether chipmakers are still willing to spend heavily on capacity they may not need until 2027 or 2028. ASML's fundamentals remain strong. In Q2, the company reported €9.33 billion in revenue, a 54% gross margin and approximately €2.9 billion in net income. Management previously guided for Q3 revenue of €11 billion–€12 billion and gross margins of 55%–57%. Analysts surveyed by Visible Alpha expect roughly €11.71

Bilibili’s latest financial data and operational updates signal a fundamental turning point in its business trajectory: the company is set to achieve full-year profitability for the first time in 2025, marking a shift from a "burning cash for growth" model to a new phase that prioritizes both profitability and growth. Financial Performance: A Confirmed Turning Point Toward Profitability Total revenue for the full year of 2025 reached RMB 30.35 billion (up 13% year-over-year). The company achieved a GAAP net profit of RMB 1.19 billion (reversing a loss of RMB 1.36 billion in 2024) and an adjusted net profit of RMB 2.59 billion, effectively turning the business profitable. Gross margin improved quarter-over-quarter for 14 consecutive quarters, reaching 36.6% overall and hitting 37% in the fo