This Thursday at 2:00 AM Beijing time, the Federal Reserve will hold its interest rate setting meeting, which receives significant market attention, especially during quarterly meetings. Previously, there were pessimistic expectations about the Fed cutting rates twice this year. If the post-meeting press conference does not convey a sufficiently hawkish stance, the market might become more optimistic, potentially boosting indices further. Therefore, stock index trends might change around Wednesday this week. If there's a significant rebound on Monday and Tuesday, investors should be cautious about potential peak rebounds on Wednesday, as the market's fear index (VIX) is relatively high, and a double bottom is quite common.
Wind Direction: Will the Federal Reserve Remain Cautious This Month, and How Will Rate Cuts Unfold This Year?
According to Xinhua News, data released by the U.S. Labor Department on the 12th showed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year in February, both below market expectations.
Following this data release, market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut increased. Traders have increased bets on at least two rate cuts this year by the Fed, with predictions that rate cuts will resume in June.
I. Features of the U.S. Stock Index Rebound
Firstly, I do not believe this round of U.S. stock index adjustments is complete. The current rebound is merely a correction due to an excessively rapid decline, and the strong resistance at 6,000 might not even be reached before new lows are set. Therefore, those planning to buy in should exercise caution and treat it as short-term speculation. Historically, U.S. indices often experience a second dip, so even if this is not the bottom, a rebound is likely to be followed by another dip. Thus, it's advisable to wait for more mature technical formations before entering. February's high this year will likely be the annual high, so this year's market should be viewed as a fluctuation, to avoid constant flip-flops.
[Image description: A chart illustrating fluctuations]
II. Has Gold Started a New Uplift after Breaking $3,000?
After much anticipation, gold finally broke through the $3,000 barrier. Post-breakthrough, gold prices may continue to pulse or even accelerate, but it's wise to observe with short-term thinking since adjustments can also happen quickly. Not entering and waiting for a significant correction before re-entering might be a good choice. If you do want to get involved, consider looking at silver. After months of consolidation, silver is now on the verge of a breakout, showing explosive technical characteristics. Buying options to gain maximum potential with minimal cost could be a strategy, with a target between $40 to $50 unchanged. However, chasing high silver prices is challenging for most investors, so consider buying longer-dated options and holding them to reduce operational difficulties and psychological stress during fluctuations.
[Image description: A chart showing silver's potential breakout]
III. $50: Trump's Psychological Price for Oil
Recently, oil prices haven't fluctuated significantly, but the news is intriguing. First, Trump is set to meet with oil industry executives next week. Then, there's speculation that the Trump administration hopes for oil prices to stay around $50. If oil policy is formed (even temporarily), it will likely drive prices down since Trump's oil policies often deliver results. Once this psychological price point is confirmed, oil prices might not see a bottom until they reach that level. This price target is also where I expect oil prices to drop by about a third. Don't worry about whether the price is reasonable; achieving this level would be the result of policy and news fermenting together. If it's not reasonable, this could create a favorable buying opportunity for gold.
Trump to Meet with Oil Executives Next Week to Discuss Energy Production
President Trump is set to meet with top oil industry executives at the White House next week to discuss energy production issues. The meeting aims to promote domestic energy output, despite industry concerns over oil price drops and tariffs. The event marks Trump's first meeting with major oil and gas leaders since taking office and forming a new national energy dominance committee. Attendees include executives from major U.S. oil companies and the American Petroleum Institute (API). This meeting is seen as an opportunity for Trump to discuss policy priorities at the start of his second term, similar to previous gatherings addressing issues like the pandemic-induced oil price crash and market share conflicts between Russia and Saudi Arabia.
Is a $50 Oil Price Truly Beneficial for the U.S.?
The Trump administration's push for a $50 oil price policy is fraught with challenges: while consumers might benefit in the short term, it could severely impact the shale oil industry, ultimately proving counterproductive. This "victory" could allow OPEC+ to regain market control, pulling the U.S. into a strategic contradiction between energy expansion goals and low-price promises. (Content generated by DeepSeek-R1 model.)
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