Hello everyone. Under normal circumstances, with a war still going on, gold should be benefiting from its safe-haven appeal, so why has the price collapsed instead? What does this selloff tell us about trading gold and equity indices, and are there similar periods in history that we can use as reference points? Today, Mr. Gan will go through all of this in the livestream. Below are some notes I put together. The Gulf states have fallen into a strange trap: oil prices are rising, but their income is falling because they cannot sell enough crude. Why? Because of the Strait blockade.  $WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $小原油主连 2605(QMmain)$

Remember at the beginning of the year, numerous reports projected that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates four times. However, following the surge in oil prices, the market has swung from one extreme to another. Today, hardly anyone dares to anticipate any rate cuts this year. In fact, working backward from the latest U.S. Treasury yield data, the market has even begun to price in potential rate hikes starting in October. This dramatic shift—going from extreme euphoria to sheer panic in just two to three weeks—clearly demonstrates that market trends are currently driven by future sentiment and expectations rather than genuine, medium-to-long-term fundamental changes. Investors must deeply understand this reality. Predictably, if the strait blockade eventually concludes and rate c

💬 Hot Market Talk: Are you cutting losses on precious metals or buying the dip? What’s your next move for gold and silver? Global precious metals markets suffered a “Black Thursday” meltdown, as gold and silver prices crashed sharply, both hitting six-week lows. Escalating geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East sent energy prices soaring, stoking renewed inflation fears and rapidly cooling market expectations for major central bank policy easing — dimming the safe-haven appeal of precious metals.$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ Spot gold tumbled as much as 6% during the session, testing the key psychological level of $4,500, marking its lowest level since the sharp sell-off in late January. Gold has now closed lower for seven cons

💬 Let’s Chime In: Did you expect gold to rally on Fed pause? Share your thoughts on the “hawkish words, dovish moves” and gold’s next move! On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range, in line with market expectations. This marks the second time the Fed has hit the pause button after three consecutive rate cuts at the end of 2025. What truly sparked market interpretation was the simultaneous release of the interest rate dot plot — this quarterly summary of economic projections showed that the median forecast by Fed officials for the interest rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, meaning there will be at least one more 25-basis-point rate cut this year. Meanwhile, interest rate expectations for 2027 and 2028 have also continu

$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Analysis: Gold remains generally biased towards an upward trend. The 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4577 forms a key support level; short-term support lies around $4633. A decisive break below this level could open the door for a test of $4200. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a clear increase in selling momentum, potentially indicating further downside for gold. If gold closes below the 100-day moving average on the daily chart, watch for a test of $4500. A break below this level would target the February 2nd low of $4402, followed by $4200. Further downside would see the 200-day moving average at $4060/oz. Conversely, if gold

$Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold Trading Analysis: Short-term focus on the 4967 double bottom support; a break below could lead to further declines. Gold's short-term trend has clearly weakened. The daily chart shows that gold prices briefly fell below the key psychological level of $5000 and are currently hovering around this level. Simultaneously, gold prices are trading below major short-term moving averages, and momentum indicators are showing signs of decline, indicating that short-term bears still dominate. The first important support level for gold prices is currently around $4967, which is also the area where Monday's intraday low w

Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

Hey everyone, let's dive into the fiery debate gripping Wall Street! Is the US stock market about to take a nosedive or soar to new heights? Two heavyweight strategists are throwing down the gauntlet, and their predictions couldn't be more different. Let's break down the bull vs. bear showdown! As mid-March unfolds, the battle between bulls and bears in the US stock market is intensifying. On one side, Mike Wilson, Chief Investment Officer at Morgan Stanley, warns that the S&P 500 could drop another 5% to 7% in the short term, stating the correction is far from over. On the other, Tom Lee, Co-Founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, is bullish, declaring a market rebound is imminent and the index could surge to 7300 later this year. This clash of titans has left investors scratching their

If you want to trade futures, then CFTC data is something you really shouldn’t ignore. The CFTC is the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which you can think of as the regulator of the U.S. futures market. Every week, it publishes large-trader positioning data that tells you which side the big money is on.​ So today, let’s go through the latest set of CFTC data.​ Before we begin, let me briefly explain what CFTC data actually is. The CFTC report tracks positions in futures contracts, and these are divided into reportable positions and non-reportable positions. Reportable positions are further split into commercial and non-commercial positions. You can think of commercial positions as those held by industrial capital, such as mines, smelters, manufacturers, and other business entiti

Hey gold bugs and long‑term investors — you need to see this forecast! 🚨 $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Gold is already flying, but top strategists are calling $6,000 soon and $10,000 long term. This isn’t hype — it’s backed by debt, geopolitics, and a collapsing trust in the system. Let’s break it down. As the closure of the Strait of Hormuz entered its 11th day, global energy markets have been roiled — but the real battle may not be in the Middle East. It’s in the U.S. Treasury market. Markets had expected geopolitical stress to push Treasury yields lower, yet the 10‑year U.S. yield climbed to 4.2%. Behind this unusual move lies a powerful lo

Wow, did you catch the precious metals rally Tuesday? Gold spiked past $5,200/oz and silver soared to nearly $90—all thanks to Middle East uncertainty and a weaker dollar. But is this just a short-term pop, or is the bull run still going? BlackRock’s got some key takes, let’s dive in! With the outlook for the Middle East conflict unclear and the U.S. dollar weakening, safe-haven funds continued to pour into the precious metals market on Tuesday. As of midday, New York gold futures surged $115.80 to $5,217.20 per ounce; silver futures jumped $5.087 to $89.59 per ounce. U.S. President Trump sent mixed signals, leaving the war’s direction highly uncertain—this uncertainty has kept gold prices elevated. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$

Gold prices crashed below $5,100, but global gold ETFs still raked in $5.3B in February—ninth straight month of inflows! Do you see this pullback as a buying opportunity amid geopolitical risks and central bank buying, or will the strong dollar keep pressuring prices? Are you adding gold to your portfolio now, or waiting for more clarity on interest rates? Share your take on the gold market’s next move below! International gold prices saw a sharp pullback this week. Pressured by a strong U.S. dollar and rising expectations of interest rate hikes, spot gold plummeted 3% at one point to around $5,015 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline in nearly a month. Despite the volatile price swings—even a steep drop from recent highs—investors’ enthusiasm for gold allocation has only grow

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1. $Gold - main 2604(GCmain)$ Gold prices have recently shown a somewhat volatile and weakening trend, especially against the backdrop of a sharp rise in oil prices, leading to a tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the gold market. The dramatic fluctuations in oil prices have also caused the US dollar and US Treasury yields to rise in tandem, becoming one of the main factors suppressing gold prices. Nevertheless, due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, demand for gold as a safe-haven asset remains, supporting some of the upward momentum in gold prices. Market focus is gradually shifting to oil price trends and the evolution of the Middle East situation, and gold pri