News and my thoughts from last week (31 Mar 2025)
Chinese antitrust regulators are investigating a US consortium’s deal for two ports in the Panama Canal zone, reportedly delaying the deal’s closing that was originally set for next week. - CNN
Consider Singapore (apart from Dubai, Monaco & Portugal). Safe, secure, and business friendly. Affordability depends on lifestyle.
Too big to fall or too big to save?
Analysts have decreased Q1 EPS estimates for $SPX companies by 4.0% since December 31, which is larger than the 10-year average (-3.2%) for a quarter - FactSet
66 $SPX companies have issued negative EPS guidance for Q1 2025, which is above the 5-year average of 56 and above the 10-year average of 62. - FactSet
The EU is set to accept a compromise that would allow companies to enter into a system of trading carbon credits instead of paying directly for their emissions - The Guardian
“It’s three years at best for brand new automotive capacity that could potentially span into a new administration, where the rules could change,” said the executive. “So just by the time that capacity was coming online, you might find that was no longer your optimal footprint.” - CNN
If Chinese-built container ship fines take effect, ‘we’re out of business in U.S.,’ ocean carrier says - CNBC
When the system fails the people, the people will replace the system.
February PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation measure, was 2.5%, in-line with expectations of 2.5%. Core PCE inflation RISES to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%. January Core PCE inflation was also revised up to 2.7%. Core inflation is back on the rise. - X user The Kobeissi Letter
I was in Washington, DC this week, speaking with economic leaders of both parties to go over the mechanics of the serious debt problem, to see if they can agree on it, and to see if there can be agreement on what to do about it. While I’m happy to report that they all appreciated going over the mechanics and agreed with the need to cut the deficit to about 3% of GDP, they are now in the middle of their debt limit and budget fights which need to be resolved before they can undertake discussions about how to hit that target. Interestingly, there was some openness to having people make the 3% pledge and even setting up a bipartisan commission to figure out how to achieve it. Stay tuned. - Ray Dalio
The US announced yesterday 25% tariffs on all cars made OUTSIDE the US: To put this into perspective, 16 million cars are sold every year in the US, of which 46% or 7.4M are imported. The US imported $474B in automotive products in 2024. New levies will take effect on April 3 - X user Global Markets Investor
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Mark Carney declares: The old relationship we had with the U.S. is over. - CPAC
Porsche and Mercedes-Benz will be hit hardest by President Donald Trump’s auto tariffs, facing a potential €3.4 billion blow from new US tariffs on imported cars, per Bloomberg
Ferrari to increase prices by 10% to offset President Trump's tariffs. - WatcherGuru
The US Federal government has a HUGE spending problem: Government expenditures' 6-month moving average has exceeded revenues for 17 years STRAIGHT. In fact, the government has recorded an annual budget DEFICIT for 24 YEARS. In effect, the public debt hit ~$36 TRILLION. The US government deficit hit $1.15 TRILLION in the first 5 months of the Fiscal Year 2025, the most EVER. This has even surpassed the 2021 fiscal shock after the 2020 Crisis.- X user Global Markets Investor
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The Federal Reserve reported a -$77.6 billion operating loss in 2024, building on a -$114.3 billion loss in 2023. Since Q4 2022, cumulative operating losses have reached a massive $224.4 billion. This comes as the central bank has paid hundreds of billions in interest to commercial banks and money market funds. On the other hand, interest income coming from Treasury and Mortgage-Backed Securities has declined as the Fed has shrunk its balance sheet. Meanwhile, the Fed’s cumulative unrealized losses on these assets jumped $112 billion in 2024 to $1.06 trillion as yields surged in the previous quarter. - The Kobeissi Letter
CHINESE EV GIANT BYD OUTPACES TESLA WITH ANNUAL SALES OF MORE THAN $100 BILLION - Investing
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Turkey’s Capital Markets Board has imposed a sweeping ban on short selling and loosened share buyback restrictions in an effort to stabilise markets following a sharp sell-off triggered by political tensions. - ShareCafe
New house prices in China fell 5.2% year-over-year in February, the 20th STRAIGHT monthly decline. This is one of the longest falling streaks in HISTORY. At the same time, existing home prices tumbled 7.5% last month. Used-home prices in top-tier cities also dropped, suggesting MORE PAIN AHEAD. The property market in China is still COLLAPSING. - X user Global Markets Investor
Only 63% of Americans would be able to come up with $2,000 to cover an emergency expense, the lowest share in 10 years. Historically low savings, skyrocketing debt, weakening labor market, and rising prices hit US consumers - X user Global Markets Investor
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