Concerns and Hope from last week ending 04 Apr 2025

Concerns and Hope from last week ending 4th Apr 2025

Economic Calendar 31Mar-04Apr25

1. Manufacturing Sector Weakness:

   The U.S. manufacturing sector showed signs of contraction, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI (49.0) falling below 50 and the S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (50.2) dropping significantly from the previous month (52.7). The Chicago PMI (47.6) also remained in contraction territory. This suggests a broader slowdown in industrial activity, which could be a drag on economic growth.

   Rising manufacturing prices (ISM Manufacturing Prices at 69.4) indicate increasing cost pressures, which could squeeze profit margins if demand weakens further.

2. Crude Oil Inventories Surge:

   The unexpected increase in crude oil inventories (6.165M vs. a forecast of -0.200M) suggests a potential oversupply in the oil market. This could lead to downward pressure on oil prices, negatively impacting energy sector revenues and potentially signaling weaker global demand.

3. Cooling Labor Market Indicators:

   JOLTS Job Openings (7.568M) fell below expectations and continued a downward trend, which may indicate a cooling labor market. While the unemployment rate only rose slightly to 4.2%, this uptick, combined with fewer job openings, could signal early signs of labor market softening.

4. Services Sector Slowdown:

   The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (50.8) fell below expectations (53.0) and the previous reading (53.5), indicating slower growth in the services sector, which is a critical component of the U.S. economy. While the S&P Global Services PMI (54.4) was stronger, the mixed signals suggest some uncertainty in this sector.

5. Persistent Inflationary Pressures:

   Both manufacturing and non-manufacturing prices (ISM Manufacturing Prices at 69.4 and ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices at 60.9) remain elevated, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's efforts to manage inflation without stifling growth, especially with Fed Chair Powell's speech on April 4 potentially addressing these concerns.

6. Strong Job Growth:

   The Nonfarm Payrolls report (228K vs. a forecast of 137K) and the ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (155K vs. 118K) both significantly exceeded

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

$Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$