News and my thoughts from last week (07 Apr 2025)
The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has discovered an oilfield in the South China Sea with proven reserves exceeding 100 million tonnes, Xinhua news agency reported on Monday. - Reuters
PolyMarket’s bet on US recession in 2025
Is the US Big Tech BUBBLE popping? Magnificent 7 stocks have DROPPED 15% year-to-date. By comparison, the remaining 493 stocks have been flat. The Magnificent 7 has declined 20% since its December peak and has erased over $3 TRILLION in market value. - X user Global Markets Investor
US consumers say a RECESSION has arrived: The Consumer Confidence Index fell to the lowest in 4 YEARS. Expectations plunged to the lowest in 12 years. A reading below 80 signals a recession. Future employment prospects TUMBLED to a 12-year low. Americans' pessimism about stocks is SKYROCKETING: 44% of US consumers expect LOWER stock prices in the next 12 months, up from ~22% in December. This is now in line with the 2022 bear market PEAK. - X user Global Markets Investor
Hedge funds last week ditched tech stocks at the fastest pace in six months and at the highest levels in five years, according to Goldman Sachs, opens new tab, as world markets tumbled on worries over U.S. President Donald Trump's April 2 tariff deadline. - Reuters
The "Buy Canadian" movement is sending new ripples of concern through the executive offices of U.S.-based consumer companies that banked on selling their products on Canadian retail shelves. - Reuters
OPEN SOURCE AI IS WINNING — CLOSED MODELS CAN’T COMPETE Kai-Fu Lee — former Google China president and now head of AI venture firm Sinovation Ventures — says the future of AI belongs to open source, not closed systems like OpenAI or Anthropic. LEE: “It’s become clear that open source will be the winner. The issue really isn't whose model is 1% better is OpenAI's model even sustainable? OpenAI’s costs of $7M DeepSeek probably operated with 2% the operating expense. Here you have a competitor coming in with an open source model that's for free. Sam Altman is probably not sleeping well.” Source: Ai
Some of the best benefits from the digital age are open source, outsource and crowd source. We need transparency for accountability. When there is a lack of accountability, it can lead to abuse and fraud.
6.1 million Americans are behind on their mortgage. FHA delinquencies just hit 11.03% — the highest in years. - X user Michael Burry Stock Tracker
TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T AGREE TO A DEAL, THERE WILL BE BOMBING "It will be bombing the likes of which they have never seen before." - CNBC
My Investing Muse (07 Apr 2025)
Layoffs & Closure news
The Trump administration began mass layoffs of 10,000 staffers at US health agencies, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the FDA and the National Institutes of Health - Reuters
Hooters restaurant chain files for bankruptcy - BBC
British Steel announces it will close its two blast furnaces in Scunthorpe, ending all steel production in the UK after more than 150 years. The country that started the Industrial Revolution will no longer produce steel - X user Visegrad24
On the Border has been struggling and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy on March 4. On that day, the chain began shutting down dozens of restaurants as it worked on a rescue plan. - The Street
The above are some of the layoff and closure news. Let us monitor this, as this can lead to market-wide concerns.
Tariffs News
Here is some news about the latest tariffs.
Can tariffs be the means to an end? The USA can be left in isolation. Wouldn't it be interesting for China, Canada, Mexico, and Europe to work together for trade? Remember to hedge. Will Trump adjust his stance on tariffs? Concerned that this can isolate America while the rest collaborate in trade and developments.
CHINA ANNOUNCES EXTRA 34% TARIFFS ON U.S. GOODS FROM APRIL 10
Stellantis temporarily halts some Canada and Mexico plants due to US auto tariffs, per Bloomberg.
“Respondents indicated that the twin threats of tariffs and continued inflation were significant contributors to their pessimistic predictions,” a Tuesday report stated. “The dip to 57.1 is not troubling in a vacuum; the major point of concern is that it represents a deviation from the direction in which the logistics industry had been trending since reaching a low point in July 2023.” - FreightWaves
In an “extreme” scenario, heightened taxes on U.S. imports could result in a 1.4 % to 2.2 % increase in core inflation. This assumes 60% tariff rates on Chinese imports and 10% tariff rates on imports from all other countries. - CNBC
For tariffs, let us monitor developments, not jump to a conclusion. We can expect some exchanges taking place, and this can take time before things are “carved into stone”.
My final thoughts
If the tariffs are not managed properly, China can and will end up building everything. They can partner with the rest of the world, including Canada, Europe, Mexico and more. Will America be left in isolation? It is better when countries work together. Coupled with an overvalued market, the recent decline is not solely driven by tariffs. Can this lead to a wider “crash”? It is possible.
Let us review our expenditures, income, and savings. Let us spend within our means, invest with what we can afford to lose, and avoid leverage. I am reviewing my holdings and plan to cut losses with businesses losing their competitive advantages. I would also consider hedging and adding some defensive positions.
Let us do our due diligence before we take up any positions. Let us have a successful week ahead.
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