I believe the current correction is more complicated than what we saw in 2018. While the S&P 500’s recent drop has already surpassed 2018’s levels, today’s backdrop includes elevated valuations, lingering recession risks, and tariff uncertainty. Unlike 2018, a clear rebound catalyst like a Fed pivot hasn’t emerged yet.
A breakthrough in US-China talks could provide a short-term boost, especially if it helps cool inflation and support growth. But with markets still pricing in optimistic earnings expectations, I wouldn’t rule out a second wave of selling — particularly if economic data softens or guidance gets revised down.
That said, I don’t expect a deep crash. If GDP stays above recession territory and inflation stabilizes, a second dip could set up a double bottom. I’m watching closely, as trade developments might be the key to turning sentiment in the first half of 2025.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars 
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