Market Outlook of S&P500 - 02Jun25
Technical observations:
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MACD - a top crossover is completed, and this suggests a downtrend is coming.
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Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) lines are showing an uptrend. However, the 3 lines are converging, and a trend reversal is coming.
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Both the 50 MA line and the 200 MA line are showing an uptrend.
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Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows more buying than selling momentum.
The daily interval is showing a “Strong Buy" for the S&P 500 index.
From the 21 indicators, 20 show a “Buy” rating and 1 shows a “Sell” rating.
Short-Term Trend: Bullish
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The Morning Doji Star and Morning Star (both emerging as of May 26) are strong bullish reversal patterns, indicating that the recent pullback was a correction within a broader uptrend. The price rise confirms the resumption of bullish momentum.
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The Bullish Doji Star (daily, May 22) further supports a short-term bounce, aligning with the price increase after the pullback.
Long-Term Trend: Bullish
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The S&P 500’s recovery, combined with its sustained position above the 200-period MA suggests the longer-term trend is bullish, as noted in prior analyses.
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The bearish patterns from early 2025 (e.g., Three Black Crows, Three Outside Down) accurately predicted the correction, but their influence has diminished as bullish patterns have dominated since April 2025.
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The current Morning Doji Star and Morning Star patterns support the continuation of the longer-term uptrend.
Key Levels to Watch
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Support: 5,802.82 (recent low), 5,779.58 (20 EMA from May 23 analysis), 5,773.10 (200 MA).
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Resistance: 5,958.38 (recent high), 6,000 (prior peak).
(The above is taken from Grok.)
Given the above considerations, I expect the S&P 500 to decline in the coming days.
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