CPI results coming - Economic Calendar of the week 09Jun25

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KYHBKO
06-08

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Economic Calendar (09Jun25)

Notable Highlights (some are taken from Grok)

  • The most watched economic data should be CPI, which serves as one of the references for inflation.

  • Inflation Trends:

     

    The CPI forecasts (previous core at 0.2% MoM, YoY at 2.3%) suggest a cooling inflation environment, especially with the YoY rate dropping from 2.6%. If actual figures align or undershoot, it could reduce pressure on the Fed to tighten policy, potentially supporting equities and bonds.

  • Labour Market:

     

    The previous “Initial Jobless Claims” at 247K shows a stable labour market. A significant increase could signal weakening conditions, while a decrease might bolster confidence in economic resilience.

  • Energy and Producer Prices:

     

    The prior crude oil inventory drawdown (-4.304M) may have supported oil prices. Another draw could exacerbate energy cost pressures, while a build might ease inflation concerns.

     

    The negative PPI (-0.5%) indicates falling producer costs, which could translate to lower consumer prices over time, supporting a softer inflation outlook.

  • Bond Market:

     

    The 10-Year and 30-Year Note Auctions will reflect investor demand and yield expectations. Higher yields (e.g., above 4.342% and 4.819%) could signal inflation concerns or growth expectations, potentially pressuring stock valuations.

  • Initial jobless claims will be announced. The previous was 247K. This weekly report tracks the number of new unemployment claims, serving as a leading indicator of labour market health. The Federal Reserve uses this as one of the key macro data references as it balances inflation and employment in the economy.

  • Crude Oil Inventories can be seen as forward indicators of market demand and consumption. This event tracks the weekly change in U.S. crude oil inventories, a key indicator of oil supply and demand that can impact oil prices and energy markets. If the trend of excess inventories continues, demand erosion can lead to reduced production & weakened consumer spending.

This week could see market volatility, particularly around Fed-related events and inflation data.

@TigerStars

$S&P 500(.SPX)$

May is Done! How Do You Expect June Movement?
S&P 500 has risen 6.15% this month, marking its best monthly gain of the year. After April’s sell-off and May’s surge, did you make any money? There’s a saying: “Sell in May and go away.” Will you follow it? Interestingly, the market clearly ignored that advice last year. However, June hasn’t historically been a standout month in terms of performance. Historically, the market has NEVER made the top for the year in the month of June. (since 1980) Will you continue to hold or take profits? Will June defy seasonal patterns, or see a temporary cooldown?
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