Last week, after the United States bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities and Iran retaliated by striking U.S. military bases, the situation flipped abruptly: Israel and Iran reached a cease-fire, and oil prices collapsed. The ensuing surge and slump in crude, each sparked by fresh headlines, show that the earlier war-risk premium has evaporated and prices have returned to their pre-conflict levels.
Because the dominant factor around that price zone was OPEC+ supply growth, oil is likely to remain range-bound unless the group announces a materially larger output hike.
Steady U.S. Equity Indices
When regional tensions rise, the market’s focus drifts away from U.S. tariff issues, allowing American stock indices to keep grinding higher.
The end of July is the deadline for trade talks, and it is unclear whether each country will strike a deal with Washington. Not every nation will rush to sign, but an all-out trade war looks unlikely, which should gradually ease risk sentiment for both the United States and global markets and keep equity benchmarks relatively calm.
The real worry is that, once trade agreements are in place, President Trump might apply maximum pressure elsewhere, spawning new flashpoints and unexpected volatility.
The emergence of a so-called “shadow Fed chair” could accelerate Trump’s push for rate cuts, a key reason the U.S. dollar index has stayed weak and a factor that supports U.S. equities.
Waning Safe-Haven Demand for Gold
During the Israel-Iran clash, gold failed to rally meaningfully, indicating that the prevailing level of risk was already priced in and that safe-haven flows alone could no longer lift prices. The cease-fire swiftly released that war-driven bid, triggering a pullback.
Technically, a break below the 20-week moving average would signal that the current uptrend needs to pause. Previous downside targets therefore remain in play, with around 2,600 still viewed as the optimal entry point after a major correction.
For now, gold is holding above the 20-week moving average; if that line—currently near 3,200—provides support and turns higher, traders can consider small positions with tight stops, but a decisive break below it requires prompt exit to avoid large account swings.
Where Next for Oil Prices?
Crude has retreated to where it was before the conflict, a zone that reflects the market’s baseline expectation for OPEC+ output growth.
If the cartel’s actual pace of expansion does not significantly exceed those expectations, prices should continue to trade sideways while the market waits for the next catalyst—be it renewed Israel-Iran hostilities or another sizable OPEC+ supply boost.
In short, the current cease-fire does not preclude another rally in oil. Keep a close watch on unfolding events, because when prices do move, they tend to move fast.
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