The US investment in AI seems to be surging, But apart from the well-known large science and technology enterprises, the investment expenditure of the local government and other enterprises is actually relatively limited. According to Harvard University economist Jason Furman, the current capital expenditure on AI in the United States is about 1% of GDP, significantly lower than the historical investment frenzy, such as railway expansion in the 1980s (the related CAPEX accounted for about 6% of GDP), electrification reform in the 1920s (3 percent), Science Networks and Broadband Investment in the 2000s (5 percent). From this perspective, if AI is truly a once-in-a-century innovation, the current US investment might be "inadequate" rather than "over-due". Furthermore, the US's past investme

$Home Depot(HD)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results on November 18, 2025, before the market open (BMO). Consensus Expectations The general consensus suggests a modest increase in the top and bottom lines year-over-year, but concerns remain about the pace of discretionary spending. Key Trends and Challenges The quarter is expected to reflect mixed consumer behavior influenced by the current economic environment: Strength in Pro Segment: Home Depot's professional (Pro) customer segment, which deals with larger projects, is expected to remain a key growth driver, supported by the "One Home Depot" strategy and recent acquisitions like GMS. DIY & Big-Ticket Weakness: Demand for high-ticket discretionary items (e.g., kitchen/

$Manulife(MFC)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q3 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, with the conference call the following morning. Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast and Expectations Based on analyst consensus, expectations are generally positive for the quarter, though the growth rate is modest compared to the previous year's beat. EPS Growth: The consensus forecast of $0.74 represents a slight increase over the $0.73 reported in the same quarter last year. Recent Trends: Manulife has generally shown operational strength, with nearly half of life insurers in the sector recently exceeding expectations on a reported or core basis. However, their Q1 and Q2 2025 results were slight misses against consensus EPS. Man

Earnings Calendar (10Nov25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Monday, Occidental, Cisco, Disney and Sea Limited. Let us look at Sea Limited in detail. Market Performance and Outlook Year-over-Year Stock Performance: The stock price has experienced a significant increase, rising 60.3% from a year ago. Analyst Consensus and Price Target: The consensus analyst sentiment is a Strong Buy rating. The established price target of $196.56 implies a substantial 31.16% potential upside from the current share price. Technical Analysis: Current technical indicators are recommending a Strong Sell rating, which presents a divergence from fundame

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore. Key Economic Data & Events Inflation & Monetary Indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%. Bond Market Sentiment Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction. The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment. A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Labo

Watch out for Oracle’s debts. Oracle’s 5-year Credit Default Swap spiked to 81 basis pts, the highest in 2 YEARS. Credit traders are buying protection against Oracle defaulting on its debt at the fastest pace since 2023. Can Oracle sustain its aggressive AI buildout? - X user Global Markets Investor $Oracle(ORCL)$

Freightwaves CEO Craig Fuller (CNBC interview): "Well, we should be worried. The goods economy, certain portions of the goods economy are collapsing right now. So, year over year trucking volumes, this is really predominance of freight that moves across the United States, is down 17%". "But when you look at the industrial sectors, or the the freight that moves over the long haul, this is energy, automotive, housing and manufacturing, we're down 30% year over year, which is very great financial crisis, levels of concern." $PROSHARES SUPPLY CHAIN LOGISTICS ETF(SUPL)$   $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  

Refinancing pressures compound the problem of fiscal management. By the end of 2025, about a third of marketable debt, worth US$9.2 trillion, would have matured, with a further US$9 trillion maturing in 2026. - Deloitte This propels the government's intend to lower the interest rates. We should see more money printing in the coming weeks. It will be interesting to see how inflation will behave. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$   $Vanguard S&P 500 ETF(VOO)$   $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$  

FactSet: 10 out of 11 sectors are reporting Y/Y revenue growth and 8 out of 11 sectors are reporting earnings growth for Q3. Revenue does not always translate into profits.  Watch out for sectors like comms. Services, energy and consumer Staples.  $IREN Ltd(IREN)$  

The idea of using Pfizer (PFE) as a hedge against a potential AI bubble pop is generally supported by its characteristics as a defensive stock in the healthcare/pharmaceutical sector. Rationale for Pfizer as a Hedge Defensive Sector: The demand for pharmaceutical products is considered inelastic because people need medication regardless of the economic climate. Unlike high-flying tech companies sensitive to economic downturns, drug sales and healthcare expenditures tend to be more resilient, offering a degree of insulation during a market crash. Low Correlation: The pharmaceutical sector, especially large-cap companies like Pfizer, typically has a lower correlation to the highly volatile technology indices (like the NASDAQ 100). A sharp sell-off in AI/tech stocks may not equally impact the

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Nov25) Oracle is facing a MASSIVE debt problem: Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 500%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA is far above AI peers. The cost to insure its debt is near the highest since October 2023 as banks prepare a $38 BILLION deal to fund data centres for AI infrastructure. - X user Global Markets Investor Elon Musk says within the next 5–6 years, there will be no conventional mobile phones, no apps or operating systems, and most of the content people consume will be generated by AI. - X user DogeDesigner A growing share of Americans now owe more on their car loans than the vehicles are actually worth, per Edmunds. During the third quarter, 28.1% of trade-ins were underwater, the highest level since early 2021. On average, these “upside

Earnings Calendar (03Nov25) EARNINGS We are monitoring the upcoming earnings reports for a portfolio of key companies, including Palantir, Uber, Pfizer, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, Airbnb, BP and AMD. Let us look at McDonald’s. Stock Performance & Valuation Year-over-Year Growth: The stock price has increased by 4.8% compared to one year ago. Analyst Sentiment: Technical Analysis: Recommends a “Strong Sell.” Analyst Consensus: Recommends a “Buy.” Price Target: The current price target is $330, which implies a potential upside of 10.61%. P/E Ratio: The current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio stands at 25.4. Revenue and Profitability Trends Revenue: Annual revenue grew from $25.4 billion in 2015 to a 1

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News and my thoughts from the past week (27Oct25) S&P 500 Growth divided by S&P 500 Value is right now testing some big, bad, bold resistance. - X user Jeff Weniger Fatality rates involving heavy-duty trucks have increased by 40% over the past decade. Culprit: the elimination of training standards and issuance of a CDL to anyone. - X user Craig Fuller President Trump says he is raising tariffs on Canada by 10% “over and above what they are paying now.” BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. This percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentage began facing the same situation over

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision. Forecast: A decrea

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Previously I talked about rare metals and China’s dominance on rare earth metals. Ones that are particularly crucial to manufacturing of core technologies that drive the chip industry or to be used in chips themselves. Now, many have been telling me, if that were really true, why are US tech stocks looking more attractive than ever. This begs the question, is software detached enough from hardware that these so called “Magnificent 7” can run independent of the hardware? Well, I am not going to directly answer this question of technology stocks now, I will over the next few posts. What I want to talk about is positions in the US in general, and it is linked to tech stocks (and unfortunately AI). As much as I love AI, hearing the word AI everywhere I go to is pretty annoying, all I want to d

Long puts on market indexes like S&P 500$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ is simply the most straightforward way to hedge against the AI bubble if any. Thanks @Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG