Economic Calendar (14Sep2026) Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision The main event in the coming week will be the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision, with the previous rate standing at 3.75%. While the decision itself will be closely watched, the accompanying FOMC statement may be even more important, as it will help shape expectations for future interest rate moves. Consumer Spending and Retail Sales Retail sales data for August will also be released in the coming week. This report will provide an important indication of the consumption outlook and the underlying strength of consumer demand. Energy, Manufacturing, and Labour Market Indicators · Crude oil inventories will be released, offering insight into oil demand expectations and the outlook monitored by oil producers. · The Phi

News and my thoughts from the past week (14Sep2026) President Trump says he does not need approval from Congress to issue $5,000 dividend checks to Americans. Congress normally has sole authority to approve spending. - X user Watcher Guru RECORD LOW ratings for Trump. A new FT poll shows ONLY 33% of voters approve of his performance, and with the midterms nearly two months away, the clock is ticking. Even his own base is cracking. Republican approval has dropped to an ALL TIME LOW of 72%. It seems many Americans have finally had enough of Trump’s promises not matching the reality they are living in with endless wars driving up THEIR costs. Two thirds of voters say the U.S economy is heading in the wrong direction AND 57% say their own financial situation has worsened under Trump. So much f

$Home Depot(HD)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal third-quarter 2025 results on November 18, 2025, before the market open (BMO). Consensus Expectations The general consensus suggests a modest increase in the top and bottom lines year-over-year, but concerns remain about the pace of discretionary spending. Key Trends and Challenges The quarter is expected to reflect mixed consumer behavior influenced by the current economic environment: Strength in Pro Segment: Home Depot's professional (Pro) customer segment, which deals with larger projects, is expected to remain a key growth driver, supported by the "One Home Depot" strategy and recent acquisitions like GMS. DIY & Big-Ticket Weakness: Demand for high-ticket discretionary items (e.g., kitchen/

$Manulife(MFC)$ is scheduled to release its fiscal Q3 2025 financial results after market close on Wednesday, November 12, 2025, with the conference call the following morning. Q3 2025 Earnings Forecast and Expectations Based on analyst consensus, expectations are generally positive for the quarter, though the growth rate is modest compared to the previous year's beat. EPS Growth: The consensus forecast of $0.74 represents a slight increase over the $0.73 reported in the same quarter last year. Recent Trends: Manulife has generally shown operational strength, with nearly half of life insurers in the sector recently exceeding expectations on a reported or core basis. However, their Q1 and Q2 2025 results were slight misses against consensus EPS. Man

$SPDR Gold Shares(GLD)$ $VanEck Gold Miners ETF(GDX)$ $Dow Jones(.DJI)$ 🕒 20 Oct 2025 🇳🇿 | VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) & SPDR Gold Shares ($GLD) I’m tracking $GDX and $GLD as they carve out what could become one of the most powerful multi-year surges in modern markets. $GDX trades near $78.73 and $GLD around $389; every chart, flow, and macro signal still points higher. 📊 Technical Analysis: Decoding the Charts I’m watching $GDX’s monthly inverse-hammer candle form above $78. If it closes here, it confirms a topping-path breakout, the same pattern that triggered 100 % plus runs from past cycle lows. Fibonacci projections mark the path to $85 → $93.6 → $104 →

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 10Nov25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays scheduled this week for the United States, Hong Kong, China, or Singapore. Key Economic Data & Events Inflation & Monetary Indicators Consumer Price Index (CPI): The CPI data is a key event. The previous year-over-year (YoY) CPI stood at 3.0%. Bond Market Sentiment Bond Auctions: Important datasets will be derived from the 10-Year Note Auction and the 30-Year Bond Auction. The results of the bond auctions reflect market sentiment. A continued increase in bond interest rates (yields) suggests the market is demanding a higher return on investment for these bonds. This demand for higher returns can occur regardless of the current Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Labo

Economic Calendar: Key Market Movers (week of 27Oct25) Public Holidays There are no public holidays in Singapore, China and America in the coming week. Hong Kong celebrates the Chung Yeung Festival on 29Oct25 Hong Kong Public Holiday: The 29th of October will be a public holiday in Hong Kong to observe Chung Yeung Day. It is known as the Double Ninth Festival and is a day for honouring ancestors and caring for the elderly. Key Economic Announcements and Market Indicators The upcoming week will feature several key economic announcements providing insights into the current state of the economy, monetary policy, and sector-specific performance. Monetary Policy and Inflation The most significant event will be the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s interest rate decision. Forecast: A decrea

News and my thoughts from the past week (20Oct25) Jenson says Nvidia goes “from 95% market share to 0%” in China, and that he “cannot imagine any policymaker thinking that’s a good idea. Whatever policy we implemented caused America to lose one of the largest markets in the world to 0%. ”In a separate interview, he effectively says that he might have lost the US in the AI race. Because, as he puts it, “winning” the AI race means that “80% of the world uses the American tech stack” and that, given that China on its own is “50% of AI research” and “30% of the technology market”, then them not using the American tech stack means that by definition America is “forfeiting and conceding” the AI race. In that separate interview he also completely ridicules the narrative - used by the US to justif

News and my thoughts from the past week (27Oct25) S&P 500 Growth divided by S&P 500 Value is right now testing some big, bad, bold resistance. - X user Jeff Weniger Fatality rates involving heavy-duty trucks have increased by 40% over the past decade. Culprit: the elimination of training standards and issuance of a CDL to anyone. - X user Craig Fuller President Trump says he is raising tariffs on Canada by 10% “over and above what they are paying now.” BREAKING: 67.6% of US consumers are now living paycheck to paycheck, according to a PYMNTS survey. This percentage has risen by +10 points over the last 18 months. This comes as nearly 30% of consumers lost their financial safety net before July 2020 and have struggled since. A similar percentage began facing the same situation over

News and my thoughts from the past week (03Nov25) Oracle is facing a MASSIVE debt problem: Its debt-to-equity ratio stands at 500%, and its net debt-to-EBITDA is far above AI peers. The cost to insure its debt is near the highest since October 2023 as banks prepare a $38 BILLION deal to fund data centres for AI infrastructure. - X user Global Markets Investor Elon Musk says within the next 5–6 years, there will be no conventional mobile phones, no apps or operating systems, and most of the content people consume will be generated by AI. - X user DogeDesigner A growing share of Americans now owe more on their car loans than the vehicles are actually worth, per Edmunds. During the third quarter, 28.1% of trade-ins were underwater, the highest level since early 2021. On average, these “upside

Previously I talked about rare metals and China’s dominance on rare earth metals. Ones that are particularly crucial to manufacturing of core technologies that drive the chip industry or to be used in chips themselves. Now, many have been telling me, if that were really true, why are US tech stocks looking more attractive than ever. This begs the question, is software detached enough from hardware that these so called “Magnificent 7” can run independent of the hardware? Well, I am not going to directly answer this question of technology stocks now, I will over the next few posts. What I want to talk about is positions in the US in general, and it is linked to tech stocks (and unfortunately AI). As much as I love AI, hearing the word AI everywhere I go to is pretty annoying, all I want to d

$Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)$ fiscal Q3 2025 earnings release is expected on Tuesday, October 21, 2025, after market close. Expected Earnings Per Share (EPS): The Zacks Consensus Estimate is for EPS of $1.99 (Non-GAAP), representing an anticipated year-over-year increase of approximately +8.2% from the $1.84$ reported in Q3 2024. Expected Revenue: The consensus estimate for revenue is $2.41 billion, which would mark a strong year-over-year increase of approximately +18.2% from the $2.04$ billion reported in Q3 2024. Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings Summary Intuitive Surgical delivered a strong financial performance in the second quarter of 2025, with results generally exceeding analyst expectations, driven by robust procedure volume

The buzz around an “AI bubble” is deafening, with NVIDIA’s $4.56 trillion cap, Tesla’s $1.5 trillion surge, and a custom AI index up 100% YTD signaling euphoric heights. The S&P 500 at 6,700 reflects solid gains, but the 200% AI rally since January raises red flags of a potential pop. Smart investors want to capture the final leg of this boom while keeping an escape pod ready. How do you hedge without bailing too early? This guide breaks down the risks, unveils hedging strategies, and offers a plan to balance gains and safety in this AI-driven market. The AI Bubble: Signs of a Looming Pop The warning signals are flashing: Valuation Stretch: NVIDIA’s 35x forward P/E and Tesla’s 40x dwarf the S&P 500’s 21.4x, with AI index gains outpacing fundamentals. Market Sentiment: Posts found o

The idea of using Pfizer (PFE) as a hedge against a potential AI bubble pop is generally supported by its characteristics as a defensive stock in the healthcare/pharmaceutical sector. Rationale for Pfizer as a Hedge Defensive Sector: The demand for pharmaceutical products is considered inelastic because people need medication regardless of the economic climate. Unlike high-flying tech companies sensitive to economic downturns, drug sales and healthcare expenditures tend to be more resilient, offering a degree of insulation during a market crash. Low Correlation: The pharmaceutical sector, especially large-cap companies like Pfizer, typically has a lower correlation to the highly volatile technology indices (like the NASDAQ 100). A sharp sell-off in AI/tech stocks may not equally impact the

Last week, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ (fear index) surged sharply, and gold prices kept pushing to new highs, yet the $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ managed a solid 2.1% gain. The market was busy digesting a short-term pullback in non-profitable tech stocks (down 8% from Thursday to Friday, but still up a slim 0.5% for the week), while chasing assets with strong long-term AI narratives—like $Broadcom(AVGO)$ announcing a 10GW partnership and Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) noting that "AI demand is stronger than three months ago," which propelled the semiconductor sector to its best weekly performance since late June.Behind this divergence, investors' real puzzle is: Will pullb

My Investing Muse (29Oct25) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Nearly 6% of Nestlé’s global workforce is disappearing. The world’s biggest food company is laying off 16,000 workers in the next 2 yrs... Here’s the breakdown: 12,000 white-collar jobs 4,000 roles cut in manufacturing + supply chain They say this is a shift to automation and shared services... it’s not quite what I am seeing being built up right now. - X user Amanda Goodall San Diego-based trucking company Epic Lightning Fast Service LLC plans to shut down all operations permanently on Oct. 31 and lay off all 116 of its workers, according to a WARN notice that the company filed with the State of California, FreightWaves reported. The Vero Beach, Florida-based airline Verijet had filed for bankruptcy after amassing over $38

The US investment in AI seems to be surging, But apart from the well-known large science and technology enterprises, the investment expenditure of the local government and other enterprises is actually relatively limited. According to Harvard University economist Jason Furman, the current capital expenditure on AI in the United States is about 1% of GDP, significantly lower than the historical investment frenzy, such as railway expansion in the 1980s (the related CAPEX accounted for about 6% of GDP), electrification reform in the 1920s (3 percent), Science Networks and Broadband Investment in the 2000s (5 percent). From this perspective, if AI is truly a once-in-a-century innovation, the current US investment might be "inadequate" rather than "over-due". Furthermore, the US's past investme