Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.In early Asian trading on Friday (January 24), gold kept oscillating higher and is currently trading near $2766.29 USD. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold bottomed out on Thursday and fell to $2,735.83 earlier in the session, but after the change in U.S. initial jobless claims performed worse than market expectations and the dollar weakened after President Donald Trump's call for lower interest rates, gold recovered all of its losses to close at $2,754.59. Market attention remains focused on the broader implications of Trump's policies.Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Since late December last year, the "Trump Trade" has driven up U.S. dollar interest rates and exchange rates. But gold didn't drop much; instead, the U.S. Dollar Index and gold prices rose together.In the short term, with the Federal Reserve's rate - cut expectations weakening and safe - haven buying cooling due to the Israel - Palestine deal, gold may face challenges. Long - term, in 2025 Q1, Trump's gradual tariff hikes could lead to re - inflation or economic slowdown, both good for gold prices. Also, U.S. fiscal issues affect the dollar's credit, and central banks' de - dollarization gold purchases make gold more likely to rise.The Impact of U.S. Dollar Interest Rates and Re - inflationThe Rebound of the Real U.S. Dollar Interest Rate Restricts Gold Prices: A strong U.S. job market in

January 20th marked the inauguration of the new U.S. President, Donald Trump, officially kicking off the "Trump 2.0" era. This inauguration was quite different from past ceremonies, breaking several long-standing American traditions. For instance, it was moved from the usual outdoor setting to indoors, foreign leaders were invited—a rare exception—and it set a new record for fundraising. These unique elements definitely made the event stand out.Now, when it comes to the financial markets, what really grabs my attention are the executive orders Trump might sign after taking office. There were plenty of expectations about his policies before, but the real question is whether there will be any surprises. These unexpected moves could shake up the markets, so it's best to tread carefully when t

In the past week, a lot of things have changed, and most of the changes are opposite to the main trend in the third and fourth quarters of 2024. With Trump officially starting his second term in the White House next week, does this "reverse" trend mean a new trend is coming or just the last correction?First of all, let's look at crude oil prices. The price has gone up for three weeks in a row, but it still hasn't helped the bulls get back to the central axis range or break through the downward trend line since 2023. But at least it's not as weak as it was before, hovering around 70. Since there isn't much direct news to drive the oil prices, it's hard to say how reliable this increase is during the semi-holiday period. Whether it can break through the trend line resistance this week or nex

2025 is a new year for every investors，but if the turmoil and conflicts increase in this year, it means that the "risk aversion" sentiment will exist for a long time, and it will have a long-term bullish effect on "risk aversion" assets. Of course, long-term bullish does not mean that there will be no major turmoil in the short term. It is just observed at the annual level that the price of gold has a certain increase every year, but the fluctuation in the middle of the year is not necessarily small.How long does the long-term bull market in gold prices last?According to the observation of the interest rate cut and depreciation cycle of the US dollar, the US dollar is in the interest rate cut stage, which usually causes inflationary sentiment; When the US dollar is in a volatile stage, it

Entering the new year, it's time to update the forward-looking series of anticipation for this year's market overview. I have shared and discussed this series with you every January since 2019. It is obvious to all how accurate it is. Although the details are slightly biased, the general direction is generally correct. I suggest you keep it for later use and continue to review it later. Be prepared for more investment. As usual, let's start with the U.S. stock index.Recently, some domestic economists are discussing the situation of the U.S. stock market, believing that the U.S. stock index will burst and fall in the next 3-6 months. Although I am skeptical about whether the data listed in the report will burst within 3-6 months, I agree that there is a bubble in the US stock index.Looking

2024, which is calm but full of opportunities, is about to pass, although there may still be some meanings of fishing for the moon in the water to explore where the most likely market situation will appear next year. But relatively speaking, we expect that the difficulty of transactions in the coming year will increase, and there will be fewer opportunities to "pick up money" in major categories. Therefore, at this time point, it may be safer to prepare for the 2025 transaction with a relatively conservative thinking.The troika created by the Biden administration is the foundation of transactions in 2024, which is why most of the time or in a prolonged cycle, long gold, Bitcoin, and U.S. stocks during this period are stable transactions. As the new Trump's second term is about to take offi

2025 is coming soon, and I wish all investors a successful start!!!Different from previous years, since January 2025, the financial market has ushered in an important drama. Trump, the "new emperor", will hold his inauguration ceremony on January 20th, and the policies and measures implemented after his inauguration will become the focus of the financial market in the future.Because Trump, a businessman, is good at negotiation and flexibility, before the policy is fully implemented, the variables are still large, so the financial market will also cause corresponding fluctuations due to this change. Of course, after the fluctuation, it is better to pay attention to the opportunity.Will U.S. stocks undergo deep adjustments?I have seen some analysis reports recently, and I am not very optimis

With the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December last year and the landing of the dot plot, a recent Goldman Sachs report pointed out that gold prices are no longer expected to hit US $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025, but need toArrival postponed until mid-2026,In other words, the newly revised view is about half a year later than the original judgment.In 2024, the price of gold will soar by 27.6%, outperforming most major asset classes except the pie and natural gas accident. Statistics in this area, I mentioned in the previous article, the market generally believes that this wave of rise in gold prices is affected by the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, increased demand for safe havens, and continued gold purchases by global central banks.However, since the be

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1.In early Asian trading on Wednesday (15 January), gold oscillated slightly lower and is currently trading at $2,673.5. $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Gold prices rebounded slightly on Tuesday, closing at $2,677.22, after the dollar fell in response to slightly weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data, which gave investors faint hope that the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates in 2025. Additionally, concerns about Trump's policy uncertainty also provided support for gold prices, although U.S. bond yields continued to climb higher, giving gold bulls pause! Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

In the early morning of Thursday, Beijing time, the Federal Reserve held its last interest rate meeting at the end of this year. As in the past, the results of the meeting itself have been fully expected by the market. What is important is the dot plot after the meeting and the expectation of next year's interest rate path revealed by the Federal Reserve Chairman's speech, which is the core that affects market prices. After last week's meeting, gold prices in the stock market plummeted.It shows that the market has lowered its expectation of the number of interest rate cuts next year. I'm afraid this expectation will not change until the new president takes office and the next interest rate meeting, so I hope everyone will remain cautious about the market.Does it have any impact on the US s

Gold showed an obvious surge and fall last week, suggesting that an important head of the market has been formed around 2800, and a new round of downward market is in the process of running. At the same time, the performance of the gold-silver ratio above the historical central axis also provides a solid long-term long-term direction of long-gold and short-silver.From the weekly chart of the gold-silver ratio, it can be found that, except for some special stages, the overall ratio will still fluctuate within a relatively reasonable range. Generally speaking, the period when silver is strong and gold is weak will represent the situation where silver makes up for the increase and the overall precious metal is strong, while the environment where gold is particularly strong may only be due to