Despite the ongoing issue of a potential U.S. government shutdown, the short-term major risk factors have been mitigated following statements by the Chinese and American leaders at the APEC summit. This development suggests that after a significant market pullback, weaker asset classes like gold and silver have the potential to enter a phase of range-bound oscillation. Meanwhile, unless a black swan event occurs, the slow bull market in U.S. stocks driven by Nvidia is likely to continue through the end of this year and into early next year.Over the past month, the relative strength comparison among the market’s "three horses" — U.S. stocks, gold, and Bitcoin (BTC) — has been quite clear. U.S. stocks have remained the last fortress of value, while BTC has served as a leading indicator. As n

Commodities, often seen as the global economy’s “barometer,” profoundly affect industrial production, trade flows, and investment decisions through their price fluctuations. Since the start of 2025, commodity markets have displayed notable divergence, influenced by shifting global liquidity conditions, changes in supply-demand dynamics, and escalating geopolitical tensions.Recently, gold prices experienced a dramatic reversal. Since mid to late August, driven by the Federal Reserve’s rate cuts, geopolitical disruptions, and sustained central bank gold purchases worldwide, international gold prices briefly surged above $4,000 per ounce. However, as trade tensions eased and profit-taking intensified among investors, gold prices faced downward pressure.Simultaneously, ongoing international tr

Powell's Dovish Stance Turns Hawkish: December Rate Cut Probability Plummets Nearly 30% $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Although the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4.00% target range as expected on Wednesday, Powell's cautious stance on further easing in December thoroughly disappointed the market.The gold market is at a crossroads: Powell's hawkish shift, the strengthening of both the dollar and US Treasury bonds, and the complete overshadowing of the "positive" impact of the end of quantitative tightening. If the US-China-South Korea summit fails to bring substantial benefits, and market expectations for a December rate cut continue to c

Since late September, there has been a striking divergence in the commodity markets: gold has repeatedly hit new highs, while crude oil prices have steadily declined. This contrast reflects underlying differences in market fundamentals and investor sentiment. Notably, NYMEX WTI crude oil futures briefly fell below $57 per barrel, and ICE Brent futures fell below $60 per barrel, even as gold maintained a record-high trajectory. Understanding the reasons behind this “oil-gold” divergence is crucial for market participants.From a supply and demand perspective, global crude oil production is undeniably increasing. OPEC has abandoned previous voluntary production cuts in favor of market share gains, while the United States and other non-OPEC countries also continue to ramp up output. Moreover,

Following a single-day sharp reversal and plunge in silver prices, the market may be entering a new downward phase. Both gold and silver, which had been rising continuously, exhibited a bearish engulfing pattern last Friday, with silver futures plunging nearly 6%. This may indicate that relatively strong assets like silver could soon face a catch-down correction along with the cryptocurrency market. Further deterioration in news flow could trigger a sustained downward trend.Silver has consistently been a key asset we previously recommended for attention. Unlike gold, silver does not possess a so-called safe-haven property. Historically, silver plays the role of a late-cycle catching-up asset. Once this last-to-ignite asset completes its upward movement, it often signals a broader trend cha

Recently, the US stock market has experienced significant volatility, primarily due to the government shutdown caused by the debt ceiling impasse and the new round of intensified US-China trade tensions initiated by the Trump administration. This led to a sharp decline in global risk assets. The Nasdaq index, dominated by technology stocks, once fell more than 3.5%, while market risk aversion notably increased, with both gold prices and US Treasury yields rising. On October 10, the volatility index (VIX), reflecting market panic, surged to 21.66, indicating a tense market atmosphere.From a valuation perspective, US stocks are generally overvalued, especially Nasdaq tech stocks, whose valuations have exceeded levels before the tariff hike in April this year. For example, the "FAANG" tech gi

The president who most enjoys disrupting markets, Trump, has made a move again this past weekend. As the saying goes, his actions were fierce and fast, and he seems to read the market’s rise and fall like a true master. After stirring turmoil—especially in the cryptocurrency space—with his provocative tweets, he then reassured the market by saying "it’s nothing," which helped trigger a rebound. After several rounds of toying with market sentiment, the question now is: can this tactic still work this time?We have previously emphasized two main factors likely to influence the market: one is Trump’s own health condition and the internal uncertainties it brings to the US; the other is the evolving relationship between China and the US. Of course, the trigger for the China-US relationship chang

The October time window has arrived again. During the National Day period, we already reminded everyone to pay attention to the special news that often occurs at this time, as it tends to trigger significant volatility in the U.S. stock market. Since the tariff war began, most of the top ten countries and regions trading with the U.S. have reached framework agreements with the United States (though actual implementation details remain unclear). However, the most critical issue—the China-U.S. tariff dispute—has had many positive signals but little substantive progress (such as China restarting purchases of U.S. agricultural products and tariffs on fentanyl). Therefore, when President Trump announced on Friday evening to double tariffs on Chinese goods, it was not too surprising, as the part

Over the National Day holiday week, markets shifted again: silver, the core sentiment gauge, led gold to fresh highs, and Bitcoin reclaimed the top spot in crypto with a new all-time high. The market is effectively immune to anything that looks negative, so fighting the prevailing mania is inadvisable until it clearly fades. That said, once leading indicators flash a definitive reversal, it could still mark a major inflection worth close attention.Among assets, silver remains the representative bellwether tracked over the past month. Silver futures set a new high this week, but with two trading days left, the chart has printed a high-level doji. While not a definitive top, it cannot be dismissed outright. Silver making highs has often coincided with rapid risk-off turns across risk assets,