Key Scenario: The Fed’s Decision Will Determine Gold’s Fate The crux of the matter regarding the decision does not lie in whether or not interest rates will be raised, but rather in the updated economic forecast dot plot and the Fed Chair’s remarks on the future interest rate path during the press conference. A: Dovish reassurance (e.g., implying that current inflation is under control and the tightening cycle is nearing its end) Market Outlook: This would immediately trigger a “gold bull run” as bearish expectations are realized. Technical Development: 4-hour bulls will ignore resistance from moving averages above, breaking through the middle Bollinger Band at $4,436.41 with a large bullish candle, rapidly recouping lost ground in a short time, and making a frantic push toward the 4-hour

(XAUUSD) The 1-hour chart currently shows a clear bearish trend and a consolidation phase at low levels. After a series of consecutive declines, the gold price has stabilized near $4,288.54 and is attempting to form a short-term support shelf; however, the overall rebound momentum is facing strong resistance from multiple moving averages above and the middle band of the Bollinger Bands. As this week coincides with the highly anticipated September Federal Reserve interest rate decision (FOMC), market expectations for a Fed rate hike have surged significantly to over 85%. The macroeconomic environment poses a bearish risk to gold, a non-interest-bearing asset, in the medium term. Therefore, the trading strategy must follow the trend, focusing primarily on selling on rallies, while supplement

Futures are pricing an 85% chance of a hike Wednesday, and decades of data says the rate decision still won't move this market $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has done this 44 times since 1997, and the vote itself barely registers The decision day averages a 0.94% move with a 1.23% intraday range. A normal session is 1.06%. That's 1.16x. 86% of hike days moved LESS than 2%. The median is flat because the market moves hard in BOTH directions and they cancel out They don't cancel evenly, though: Up weeks average +1.10% Down weeks average -2.02% Red price action runs roughly 2x the greens through the first week Here's the tradeable part: It isn't Wednesday that sets the week. It's THURSDAY When the session after the decision closes green, the wee

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading ideas with you! 1 Filling up the GAP ZONE--see the black hand on chart--for the last week and today, waiting for FOMC and Warsh's gesture. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Expect a hike, and minor plunge to the Red Spot, and spike higher to ruin both Bulls and Bears' plan. Follow me to learn more about analysis!!

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Technical Analysis: $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ The current gold price is consolidating within a narrow range near the bottom of a key downtrend channel and the 4,330 level! In terms of technical structure, the downtrend channel continues, with lows gradually rising (potential double bottom?). After facing resistance above 4,450 earlier, gold has been trading within an overall downward-sloping channel. Current key price defense zone: strong resistance at 4,350–4,355; strong support at 4,309–4,322. In the short term (over the next few hours), it is highly likely that gold wi

$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$$Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ The current gold price is in a technical pattern characterized by a rebound from a bottom and wide-range volatility. On the H4 chart, the moving averages have formed a very standard and perfect bearish alignment. Even if gold prices rebound, the upside will be extremely limited, as the resistance zone at $4,345–$4,350 will act as an insurmountable barrier. A break below yesterday’s low of $4,311 will trigger a technical sell-off, with downside potential extending directly to $4,250 or even near $4,200. For today, firmly exe

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Following the U.S. military strike on Iranian oil tankers, Brent crude briefly approached the $100 mark. In the past, an escalation of war has often been a direct positive for gold; however, against the current backdrop of monetary tightening, the surge in oil prices has intensified market fears of a global “reflation.” Investors have realized that high oil prices will force the Federal Reserve to adopt a more aggressive interest rate policy. This has caused the U.S. dollar to rise and gold to continue falling. The key support level is currently at 4,375; if this level cannot be held, gold will continue to seek support at 4,350! Short-term sell positions continue to generate profits!

Technical Analysis: After dipping to $4,341.35 and hitting a short-term support level, gold staged a rebound amid volatility. It subsequently formed a bullish swing high above the 4,450–4,460 range but has recently shifted to a downward correction from these highs. The price action shows signs of a slowing downtrend and stabilization through sideways consolidation at lower levels. If the short-term rebound consistently fails to break through and close above $4,425 on the 1-hour chart, the bears will maintain control. The market is highly likely to break below the local support at 4,360 and initiate a second retest of the extremely dense support zone at 4,310–4,305 below. If bulls force a rally driven by news events (such as a sudden escalation of geopolitical tensions or an unexpectedly we

Technical Analysis: The current gold price (4,434.60) is attempting to consolidate above the moving average band on the hourly chart. It faces significant resistance at the 4,440–4,450 level (near the previous high and the upper Bollinger Band). Currently, bulls and bears are engaged in a fierce tug-of-war around the 4,410–4,435 range. As the market awaits the upcoming release of key U.S. inflation data (CPI, PPI) this week to calibrate the interest rate hike path, gold is highly likely to continue trading in a wide range before these major data releases and the interest rate decision are finalized! When the gold price rebounds to the key resistance zone of $4,440–$4,450 and fails to break through with significant volume, traders may consider entering short positions for a short-term trade

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Following the release of the U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, which was clearly another broad-based positive for gold, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) plummeted 0.57% to 98.991. The overall market sentiment has now undergone a dramatic reversal. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ H1 Chart: The candlestick chart shows a pattern of several consecutive large bullish candles shooting up like bamboo shoots, with virtually no significant pullback. The price has now reached a high of $4,510.79. Breaking through the 4,500 level signifies that the medium-term bullish trend in the market has bee

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! The current price is trading around 4,370. Although it is at a relative high for the day (up +0.95%), it encountered significant resistance after surging to around 4,397.65, leaving an upper shadow on the chart, which indicates some selling pressure above. If the price pulls back to test the support level below and stabilizes there, accompanied by another surge in trading volume, gold is likely to test today’s high of 4,397 again. Once the price effectively breaks through the 4,400 psychological level, upside potential will open up. Here is the strategy for the upcoming New York session: (If the price stabilizes near 4,350) Buy: 4,345–4,350 TP: 4,380–4,385 SL: 4,330

Seems like a big battle now between macro (10Y, Oil, PCE etc) and the AI narrative which is only trending in one direction: 1. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$: Forecasted 2028 revenue growth at +70% vs Street estimates of 44%. 2. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ forecasts $1.3T in hyperscaler CapEx spend for 2027. 3. $SHKY CEO: "We expect the shortage (on storage) to persist until the end of 2030." 4. $SanDisk Corp.(SNDK)$: "We see structurally massive demand for NAND until 2030." 5. $Marvell Technology(MRVL)$ giving $Alphabet(GOOGL)$

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some trading strategies with you! 1 The opening low is 7627, lower than the previous lows near 7640. The second part of my prediction is right [break the previous lows within two trading days]. Now, the next step is to fill the GAP at 7600. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 2 THE DAM WILL BE BROKEN--SOON.