🛒 PDD Pulls Back, Alibaba Earnings Loom: Bargain or Bull Trap? China’s e-commerce duel just got interesting. Pinduoduo ($PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$  ), the darling of discount retail, is suddenly on the defensive after management admitted profits may not be sustainable. Shares slid back to $130. Meanwhile, Alibaba ($Alibaba(BABA)$  ) steps into the spotlight on Aug 29, with the market asking: can it stage a comeback while margins are under fire? This isn’t just about two companies — it’s about the future of Chinese consumer power in a fragile recovery. --- ⚠️ PDD: The Momentum Machine Hits a Speed Bump For months, PDD was the stock every retail investor pointed to when asked, “Who’s winning

Alibaba revenue came in at RMB 247.652 billion, below the estimate of RMB 253.17 billion. I acknowledge that this miss is a concern, but I believe it reflects the company's strategic investments rather than a lack of growth potential. The free cash flow recorded a net outflow of RMB 18.815 billion, primarily due to increased spending on cloud infrastructure and investment in Taobao Flash Sales. These are areas I see as critical for long-term success, even if they impact short-term financials. Although food delivery is expected to weigh on profits, Alibaba delivered a positive surprise with the development of a new AI chip to fill the gap left by Nvidia in the Chinese market. I am impressed by this move, as it shows Alibaba's commitment to innovation and self-reliance in a challenging geopo

“Alibaba’s Big AI Bet: Nvidia Rival or Just a Flash?” Alibaba just dropped a surprise that shook the market: a brand-new AI chip designed in-house, instantly sparking comparisons with Nvidia and lifting its stock +10% in a single session 🚀. For investors, this raises the big question: is Alibaba’s new silicon a true growth driver, or just a narrative shift to distract from food delivery wars and heavy spending on cloud infrastructure? --- 📊 Why the AI Chip Matters In the global race to dominate AI hardware, Alibaba’s move is bold. Nvidia still controls the cutting edge, but China’s demand for domestic AI solutions is rising under both geopolitical and regulatory pressures. A self-developed chip means Alibaba can: Reduce reliance on U.S. suppliers. Bolster its cloud division, already the ba

I am thrilled to see Alibaba's $Alibaba(BABA)$  $Alibaba(09988)$  recent performance, especially with the stock jumping ten percent following the earnings report. The development of a new artificial intelligence chip to address the gap left by Nvidia $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  in the Chinese market is a bold move that I find promising. It suggests that Alibaba is positioning itself strategically, and I am encouraged by this innovative step forward. Despite the expected drag from food delivery on profits and the significant net outflow of RMB 18.815 billion due t

I have observed that Pinduoduo executives have expressed doubts about the sustainability of this quarter's profit level, anticipating fluctuations in the coming quarters. Following their earnings call, Pinduoduo's stock pulled back to $130, raising concerns about investment uncertainty. Meanwhile, Alibaba is scheduled to release its earnings on August 29, with market expectations set at revenue of RMB 266 billion (up 9.4% year-over-year) and an adjusted EBITA of RMB 35.3 billion (down 21.7% year-over-year). I firmly believe that Pinduoduo's $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$   pullback presents a strong buying opportunity. The uncertainty highlighted by their executives does not deter me; instead, I see it as a chance

Comparative Outlook: Pinduoduo (PDD) vs. Alibaba (BABA) 1. Valuation & Analyst Sentiment Alibaba (BABA) is trading at approximately 16.05× forward earnings—a level that suggests relative value and appeal to investors seeking a rebound in a fundamentally stable company. Analysts such as those on MarketBeat see ~48% upside potential, with price targets reaching as high as $169 . PDD (Pinduoduo) trades at a lower ~13.56×, on top of already being discounted—especially after recent profit concerns. Still, analysts project an even more substantial ~79% upside from its current price, pointing to significant rebound potential . Conclusion: PDD currently presents a more attractive potential upside on a relative valuation basis. 2. Growth Trends & Macro Signals PDD has been expanding at a ra

I am looking at the latest post regarding the earnings releases of Pinduoduo and Alibaba, scheduled for August 25 and August 29 respectively. It's interesting to see the market's bullish stance on Pinduoduo, especially with $25 million worth of call options traded. This suggests a strong confidence in its upcoming performance, which I find quite compelling given the current economic climate. I note that Pinduoduo's valuation was once significantly higher, but the gap has narrowed considerably. Now, Alibaba stands at a forward P/E of 16.05x, while Pinduoduo is at 13.56x. This convergence in valuations is something I find intriguing, as it places these two giants on a more level playing field in terms of market perception. For Alibaba, the market anticipates revenue of RMB 266 billion, refle

1. Food Delivery War & Alibaba’s Profits Alibaba’s Exposure: Alibaba participates in the food delivery sector mainly through Ele.me, which competes directly with Meituan. While Ele.me’s market share has stabilised somewhat, the sector remains intensely competitive, with subsidies, discounts, and logistics costs weighing heavily on profitability. Impact on Earnings: Given that Alibaba’s core commerce still contributes the bulk of revenue and profit, food delivery is not its primary earnings driver. However, if competition escalates, it will: Pressure local services EBITA, worsening the margin outlook. Reinforce investor concerns that Alibaba is overextended across too many verticals. Conclusion: The food delivery war will not dominate Alibaba’s Q2 results, but it could weigh on investor

1. Earnings Highlights Positive surprise: Alibaba unveiled its own AI chip—a strategic move to reduce reliance on Nvidia, especially given U.S. export restrictions. This aligns with Beijing’s broader push for semiconductor self-sufficiency. The market rewarded the announcement, with the stock surging ~10%. Negative drag: Free Cash Flow (FCF) outflow of RMB 18.8 billion, reflecting: 1. Heavy investment in cloud infrastructure, a capital-intensive but strategically vital area. 2. Ongoing subsidies for Taobao Flash Sales, designed to fend off rivals Pinduoduo and Douyin. --- 2. Can AI Be the Next Growth Driver? Cloud + AI integration: Alibaba Cloud remains the largest cloud provider in China, and pairing it with an in-house AI chip creates vertical integration—potentially higher margins long-

Your framing is on point — Alibaba’s Q2 sets up as a story of solid top-line growth but margin pressure, with investors weighing whether cloud/AI strength can offset subsidy-heavy retail and delivery battles. Here’s a structured preview: --- 1. Headline Expectations Revenue: ~+5% YoY to RMB ~266B (consensus), reflecting resilience but modest compared to peers. Cloud: Expected +20% YoY growth, a bright spot given renewed AI demand and enterprise digitalisation. Cloud momentum will be scrutinised as the leading structural growth driver. Profitability: Adjusted EBITA consensus ~RMB 35B (–20% YoY), weighed down by: ¥50B Taobao flash-sale subsidies to defend market share. Ongoing food delivery price war (Ele.me vs. Meituan). Higher integration costs in new business units. --- 2. Key Investor Fo

Alibaba on Course to Join Nvidia, Tesla in Most Active Options as Shares Jump 14% $Alibaba(BABA)$   options volume soared Friday, setting it on course to join $NVIDIA(NVDA)$   and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$   in the most active options after the Chinese e-commerce giant saw the revenue from its cloud intelligence business grow faster than expected. The company's Cloud Intelligence Group reported revenue rising 26% to 33.39 billion yuan ($4.66 billion) in the three months ended June 30. That exceeded analysts' expectations that averaged 31.85 billio

$Alibaba(BABA)$   Alibaba: Earnings, Value Outlook & Technical Insights 💼📈🔍 On to Alibaba for quite a bit as good long and diversification with $75usd. Now it's relative fair value and hope it goes higher. Coz still have options to sell. Let's see. Hope the New AI Chip is gonna be a big mega star.  China market Wise, Alicloud is the preferred one. So long term is an advantage. And Alipay still a leader and probably a southeast Asian Leader too,... and growing to more markets  For Now... here we go 1. Earnings Recap: Cloud Shines Despite Retail Headwinds • Mixed results: In the quarter ending June 2025, Alibaba’s total revenue was ¥247.65 billion (~US$34.6 billion)—slightly below estimates of ¥252.

Alibaba’s latest results reveal a complex picture: 1. Positive Surprise – AI Ambitions The development of a new AI chip to fill the vacuum left by Nvidia in the Chinese market is strategically significant. With US export restrictions limiting access to advanced semiconductors, Alibaba’s move could strengthen its cloud division’s competitiveness. If execution is strong, the AI chip could bolster Alibaba Cloud’s positioning in the enterprise and government segments, where demand for AI computing power is surging. 2. Financial Signals – Cash Outflow The RMB 18.815 billion free cash flow (FCF) outflow underscores Alibaba’s aggressive reinvestment into cloud infrastructure and its “Taobao Flash Sales” initiative. While negative FCF is not ideal, it can be justified if these investments lead to

China’s Retail Recovery Exceeds ExpectationsIn Q2 2025, China’s retail sales grew at an average monthly rate of +5.4% YoY, nearly double the +2.7% growth seen in the same period last year.Even more encouraging, online retail sales in H1 2025 rose +8.5% YoY, outpacing the overall retail sales growth of +5%. This is positive news for Pinduoduo. Although its Q1 2025 revenue grew only +10% YoY, far below the +59% growth for the full year of 2024, it at least indicates growth momentum is continuing.The recent retail rebound is unlikely to restore $PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ to the hypergrowth levels of 2024, but it may help offset some of the negative impact from higher U.S. tariffs. Analysts may even raise their full-year 2025 revenue growth forecasts—the