SMCI Roller Coaster: Are Risks Mounting?

Despite hitting a record $7.22B in quarterly revenue, Supermicro faces mounting risks—nearly 60% of its revenue comes from just two clients, 73% of receivables are under pressure, and a $150M financial gap needs fixing. Goldman Sachs’ latest report highlights valuation concerns. ----------------- As a shadow stock of Nvidia, which do you think is a better "buy the dip" opportunity—SMCI or Nvidia? Is SMCI's valuation reasonable? What is your target price for SMCI?

avatarKKLEE
02-19
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$   Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has gained 16%, fueled by strong AI-driven demand. With the upcoming 10-K filing, investors are watching for potential catalysts—but will it reveal anything new, or is the stock’s trajectory already set? Why the 10-K May Be a Non-Event No Major Surprises Expected – SMCI has been transparent in earnings calls, and the 10-K is unlikely to contain game-changing updates. Momentum Already in Play – The rally is largely driven by AI sector strength and institutional accumulation, not regulatory filings. Fundamentals Remain Strong – The company’s growth trajectory is well-established, making the 10-K more of a routine disclosure than a market-moving event. What Could Still Matter? M
🚨🚨Global Equity Markets 11 Feb  US Markets   - **S&P 500**: Flat near 6,000 amid mixed sentiment. Tech stocks (Nvidia +3%, AMD +2%) rebounded on AI optimism, offsetting tariff jitters. Resistance at 6,123.30; support at 5,923.40 .     - **Nasdaq**: Gained 0.8%, lifted by semiconductor stocks. **Boeing** (-2%) lagged on FAA safety concerns, while **Apple** (+1.5%) rose on iPhone 16 demand .     - **Dow Jones**: Fell 0.3% as industrials (Caterpillar -4%) slumped on weak global machinery demand .   Asia/Europe     - **Hang Seng**: Jumped 1.8% on Alibaba (+5%) and Tencent (+3%) gains, shrugging off US-China trade tensions. Key resistance at 22,000 .     - **Nikkei 225**: Dropped 0.6% as yen strength (USD/JPY 15
avatarKKLEE
02-10
The semiconductor sector has shown signs of recovery, with ON Semiconductor (ON), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), and Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) recently reporting earnings. As demand for chips stabilizes and new growth drivers emerge, traders are asking: Can the semiconductor industry sustain its rebound? Let’s break down the earnings highlights and factors shaping the outlook for this critical tech sector. Earnings Highlights ON Semiconductor (ON) Strong demand for automotive and industrial applications supported revenue growth. The company's focus on silicon carbide (SiC) technology for EVs positions it well for future growth. Management provided optimistic guidance for upcoming quarters despite supply chain challenges. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Benefiti
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is riding strong momentum ahead of its 10-K filing, and I believe the stock is primed for a breakout past $80 rather than a pullback to $50. Here's why:   1️⃣ Strong Fundamentals & AI Tailwinds – SMCI has been a key player in AI-driven server demand, benefiting from the explosive growth in high-performance computing. The company’s partnerships with Nvidia and AMD position it well to capitalize on the AI boom, driving strong revenue growth.   2️⃣ No Major Red Flags Expected in 10-K – Investors are watching closely for any surprises in the 10-K filing. If there are no material downward revisions or accounting concerns, confi
avatarMrzorro
02-26
Options Market Statistics: Super Micro Files Financial Reports Right Before Nasdaq's Deadline $SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$   shares were down 11% on Tuesday while surging more than 20% in extended trading. The most traded puts are contracts of $30 strike price that expire on Feb 28 and the total volume reaching 39,159 with the open interest of 41,084. The traded calls are contracts of $50 strike price that expire on Feb 28. On Tuesday, the company filed its late financial reports to meet Nasdaq’s rules, easing worries that it might be removed from the stock exchange. The company released its 2024 fiscal year results in a filing with the SEC. It also submitted financial statements for the quarters ending

Hang Seng Tech Has Arrived? Money rotates from US to China?

The Hang Seng Tech Index ‌$HSTECH(HSTECH)$  ‌ has been consolidating within the broader Hang Seng Index ‌$HSI(HSI)$  ‌since February 14, 2022 (Happy Valentine’s Day!). Last week, it successfully broke out with a strong upward move, clearly surpassing the consolidation range and closing above the 200-week EMA. Actions:  1. Holding Position ‌$BABA-W(09988)$  $Alibaba(BABA)$  : I am not increasing my allocation to Alibaba, as I already hold a 25% position, and the RSI is approaching overbought levels. I am also not selling or considering selling covered calls. I am mentally prepared to stay
Hang Seng Tech Has Arrived? Money rotates from US to China?
is it still above trend lines now after the 9 percent drop yesterday?
avatarJoeH123
03-26
Scary
avatarKKLEE
02-11
Super Micro Computer (SMCI) has delivered another impressive earnings report, fueled by strong demand for AI-driven infrastructure solutions. As the semiconductor sector rebounds, the question for investors is clear: Will chip giants like SMCI, Nvidia, and AMD continue their upward surge? Let's break down the factors driving this rally and assess the potential for sustained growth. Earnings Highlights SMCI reported solid revenue growth, beating market expectations, driven by surging demand for AI servers and cloud infrastructure solutions. The company’s strategic partnerships with industry leaders like Nvidia have positioned it as a key player in the AI hardware revolution. Management's bullish guidance suggests continued momentum in the upcoming quarters. Why Chip Giants Could Continue Su
SMCI is the 1 Big Win. AI Server Dominance: SMCI is a leader in AI-optimized servers, partnering with NVIDIA (Blackwell GPUs) and Microsoft to meet surging demand for AI infrastructure. FY2026 Revenue Guidance: $40 billion (70% growth from FY2025), deemed "conservative" by CEO Charles Liang. Historic Price Surge: 5-Year Return: +1,336% (driven by generative AI boom and cloud adoption). 52-Week High: $122.90 (March 2024), though shares corrected to $56.07 by February 2025. Market Sentiment & Catalysts: News Highlights: Strategic AI partnerships, bullish revenue cycles, and data center sector growth (9.29% CAGR projected through 2033). Options Activity: Elevated implied volatility and gamma spikes near key price levels amplified speculative interest. Financial Metrics: Valuation: P/E 27.
avatargib88
02-21
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$  Revenue Growth and Profit Margins: Investors will closely examine SMCI’s revenue growth, particularly in its AI and data center segments. Any signs of slowing growth or margin compression could weigh on the stock. Guidance and Outlook: The 10-K may provide insights into management’s expectations for the coming year. Strong guidance could fuel a breakout, while cautious commentary might trigger a pullback. Supply Chain and Inventory Levels: SMCI’s ability to manage supply chain challenges and inventory levels will be critical. Any indications of bottlenecks or excess inventory could spook investors. Competitive Positioning: With increasing competition in the AI hardware space, SMCIs a
avatarTGBboon
02-19
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ patience is key! finally sold at a positive price!
avatarHENG8
02-19
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$   Will 10-k be a turning point. Super micro scale-up Blackwell production. Q3 2025? bullish. "Combined with exceptional product quality, service, software, networking, and security with data center building blocks, Supermicro will expand our leadership as the premier US-based data center infrastructure solution provider. We anticipate this technology transition sets a strong foundation for us now, resulting in FY25 revenue in the range of $23.5 billion to $25 billion, paving the way for $40 billion revenue in FY26.” after filed 10-K definitely going be a turning point.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ SMCI’s wild ride reflects both its AI-driven potential and growing risks. Valuation is stretched, and supply chain pressures remain, but AI infrastructure demand is a strong tailwind. Short-term volatility is high, but long-term prospects still look promising.
avatarAh_Meng
02-04
$SMIC(00981)$   A new high and an ATH coming... taking out $44 is a matter of hours, if not minutes... SMIC stands out as a Chinese based chips manufacturer. I have stated a year or two before that it stands to gain from US ban on advanced chips to China (Not sure how to link my old article- anyone can share?).  Why? Simple - 2 important reasons. 1) Chinese companies have no choice but to buy from SMIC due to the US advanced chips ban. Donald Trump will likely continue what his predecessor did in this aspect. 2) Chinese government's support [USD]  [Allin]  [Allin]  [USD]  No matter how badly the rest of the economy is doing, Chinese government is throwing its weight behind technology co
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ SMCI’s wild swings raise concerns, but are risks truly mounting? Valuation remains high, and supply chain pressures could weigh on margins. However, AI server demand keeps growth strong, and institutional interest provides support. A pullback is possible, but long-term tailwinds remain intact. Watch for key levels before making a move.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ Not gonna speak of their fundamentals. I'm simply looking at the chart itself, only technicals.I spot a huge MOAT (Mother of All Trendlines) here and the name is rearing it's head towards it.If it can break this very notable green area of resistance which it looks like it might, almost certain it will test the 200dma and the MOAT around $53-54 next.Then we re-evaluate there.
avatarRabBird
02-18
$SMCI 20250307 41.0 CALL$  Great potential on SMCI and its road to its glory days again. Confident that it will be back up to at least $100 within 2 weeks from 25th Feb.  Unlimited upside potential, with minimal downside risk.
$SUPER MICRO COMPUTER INC(SMCI)$ why does it always happen when I buy
avatarToNi
02-08

Super Micro Computer (SMCI): A Strong Bet on the AI Boom?

SMCI surged 7.21% to close at $36.28, continuing its upward momentum in after-hours trading. This rally aligns with the company’s latest strategic advancements—full-scale production of AI data center solutions powered by NVIDIA’s Blackwell platform. Why SMCI Could Be a Strong Buy? 1️⃣ AI Infrastructure Leader: SMCI is expanding its AI server solutions, solidifying its position as a key player in the AI-driven data center revolution. As demand for high-performance computing (HPC) and AI workloads rises, SMCI stands to benefit. 2️⃣ Strong Market Momentum: The stock is up significantly in the past few weeks, with today’s rally reflecting investor confidence. The moving averages indicate a potential bullish breakout, with price action surpassing key technical levels. 3️⃣ Upcoming Business Upda
Super Micro Computer (SMCI): A Strong Bet on the AI Boom?