Big Bank Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, MS is the Winner?

As a key industry bellwether, JPMorgan Chase signaled pressure in its latest earnings, confirming investment banking revenue came in below guidance. Shares fell more than 4% Tuesday, dragging the broader financial sector lower. The results suggest that in a high-rate environment, capital markets activity is recovering more slowly than expected, while rising operating costs are squeezing margins. Does JPMorgan’s earnings miss point to a broader slowdown in capital markets activity? In a higher-for-longer rate environment, can banks defend margins against rising costs?

Super Earnings Week: US Big Banks Report Cards Highlight

During the January 2026 super earnings week, America’s major banks have all reported results. While each bank has a different business focus, one industry-wide consensus has clearly emerged: short-term expense increases in the name of future technology (AI).The market’s response, however, has been brutally pragmatic. Tolerance for rising costs is fading, and the ROI (return on investment) stress test has officially begun.AI transformation vs. operating expense growth has become the core “battleground” of this earnings season.1. $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$: The bold “long-term tech bet”CEO Jamie Dimon has taken a firm stance on higher spending — essentially telling investors, “Trust me.” He argues that investing now in AI, data centers, and cybersecurity
Super Earnings Week: US Big Banks Report Cards Highlight

Big Bank Earnings Recap: Trump Policy Risk! Is Financial Still a Buy?

The January 2026 earnings season has started on a rough note for U.S. banks.All major US banks have now reported their results. Although each bank has a different business focus, increasing short-term spending on future technologies, particularly AI, has become an industry-wide consensus.However, the market’s reaction has been notably pragmatic: tolerance for rising expenses is fading, and the test of ROI (return on investment) has officially begun.Management teams repeatedly emphasized AI, data centers, and automation as long-term necessities. But the market is no longer rewarding spending on trust alone.Big bank earnings brief$Bank of America(BAC)$ delivered both EPS and revenue beats, supported by strong equity trading and a ~10% YoY increase in
Big Bank Earnings Recap: Trump Policy Risk! Is Financial Still a Buy?

Financials Rotation Use Income Buffers, Protective Puts On Tech

Though tech stocks make a recovery on Thursday (15 Jan) after TSMC stellar earnings and guidance outlook, but we are still seeing tech and banks facing sector rotation in earnings week. Financials managed to make a recovery last night as well, but could this rotation continue in the next few weeks as more earnings are coming? In this article, we would like to look at the comprehensive market- and strategy-focused overview of your questions around the current tech vs financial rotation, geopolitical export restrictions, and tactical portfolio positioning: Market context (Thursday, 15 January 2026) • Stocks broadly recovered after recent losses, fueled by strong $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ earnings and guidance, which lifted semiconduct
Financials Rotation Use Income Buffers, Protective Puts On Tech
avatarSpiders
01-17 00:02

A Quiet Interest in Numbers: Following Flagstar’s Journey

I’ve been thinking a lot about Flagstar Financial (FLG) recently, mostly because their stock is releasing earnings on January 30, 2026. I’m not planning to buy—at least, not yet—but there’s a part of me that can’t help checking. There’s something quietly compelling about watching a company’s story unfold through numbers, seeing whether strategy, effort, and past decisions finally come together. Flagstar Financial, Inc. (FLG) Flagstar’s recent years have been…well, full of changes. Back in April 2021, New York Community Bancorp announced it was acquiring Flagstar in an all-stock merger. It wasn’t a fast process—the deal completed only in December 2022. But then, just a few months later, in March 2023, Flagstar absorbed nearly all of Signature Bank’s deposits after Signature collapsed. I sti
A Quiet Interest in Numbers: Following Flagstar’s Journey
avatarkoolgal
01-16

Big Bank.Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, Margin Squeeze & Trump's 10% Credit Card Cap. Is Financials Still A Buy?

🌟🌟🌟When JPMorgan $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$  the bellwether of the financial sector, reported earnings that fall short on investment banking revenues, the whole sector feels it.  On Tuesday, JPMorgan's shares slid more than 4%, pulling the broader financial sector down with it. Everyone is now asking the same question: Is this a blip or the beginning of a broader slowdown in capital markets activity? Just as Wall Street was processing that, President Trump threw another curve ball into the sector: A proposed 10% cap on credit card interest rates. This unexpected move sent credit card lenders tumbling as investors braced for the potential hit to profitability. JPMorgan's Miss: A Canary in the Capital Markets Coal
Big Bank.Earnings Recap: AI Divergence, Margin Squeeze & Trump's 10% Credit Card Cap. Is Financials Still A Buy?
$Genprex, Inc.(GNPX)$   The Genprex Inc. stock price gained 19.58% on the last trading day (Wednesday, 14th Jan 2026), rising from $2.40 to $2.87. During the last trading day the stock fluctuated 36.67% from a day low at $2.10 to a day high of $2.87. The price has risen in 7 of the last 10 days and is up by 63.07% over the past 2 weeks. Volume has increased on the last day along with the price, which is a positive technical sign, and, in total, 1 million more shares were traded than the day before. In total, 2 million shares were bought and sold for approximately $5.71 million. The stock lies in the middle of a very wide and falling trend in the short term and further fall within the trend is signaled. Due to th

Can Goldman Sachs (GS) Break Banks Earnings Drags?

$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings on Thursday, January 15, 2026, before the market opens. The bank enters this report following a massive rally—shares are up roughly 65% over the last 12 months—and is trading near all-time highs (around $940–$950). This sets a high bar for performance, as much of the "dealmaking renaissance" may already be priced in. Key Consensus Estimates (Q4 2025) Earnings Per Share (EPS): ~$11.69 (Revisions have trended upward by 6% in the last 30 days). Revenue: ~$14.54 billion (Expected growth of ~4.8% YoY). Implied Move: Options markets suggest a potential stock move of +/- 4.5% to 5.5% post-earnings. Goldman Sachs reported its fiscal Q3 2025 results on October 14, 2025. The quarter was ch
Can Goldman Sachs (GS) Break Banks Earnings Drags?
JPMorgan's Earnings and Capital Markets Activity JPMorgan Chase's Q4 2025 earnings showed a mixed picture. While its profit exceeded estimates due to a trading boom in volatile markets, with equities revenue surging 40% and fixed income climbing 7%, its investment banking fees fell 5% and missed Wall Street estimates by 8%. This led to an initial decline in JPM's shares and contributed to the broader financial sector moving lower. Despite the dip in JPMorgan's investment banking fees, the overall outlook for capital markets activity appears more nuanced. Investment banking revenues for the industry are generally expected to be up, particularly in equity capital markets. The U.S. IPO market reached its highest level in 2025 since 2021. KBW anticipates continued momentum and outperformance i
avatarLanceljx
01-16 19:16
1) Does JPMorgan’s miss signal a broader capital markets slowdown? It can, but it is more “uneven recovery” than a full downturn. Investment banking is highly cyclical: If JPM’s IB revenue came in below guidance, it often reflects slower deal-making (M&A) and more cautious underwriting (IPOs, bonds) across the street, not just a firm-specific issue. High rates delay decisions: Higher discount rates make valuations harder to agree on, so CEOs and PE funds tend to wait longer, pushing deal timelines out. Trading can mask weakness: Even when IB is soft, markets revenue (FICC/equities trading) can hold up. So the signal is: deal activity is not rebounding as fast as hoped, not that the entire capital markets engine has stalled. Bottom line: JPM’s miss likely supports the view that capital
I own a lot of bank and investment bank stocks plus Amex, visa and sofi. All have have an annualized return of over 50% and a third over 100%. Well by all, I mean all but one. Visa has sucked, oh wait if I lump PayPal in there to, it’s very suckie. My annualized return on visa is -1% give or take. PayPal is like -20%. But pretty insignificant compared to overall gains. But as I looks through my investment notes, it clear. $Citigroup(C)$ was a no brainer. And old fashioned value stock when I brought it. David Dodd would be proud. It was trading at around half of its break up value when I brought it. You never find stocks like that these days. But find it I did. I brought ALOt of different bank stocks during the “banking crisis” around two years ago.
avatarkoolgal
01-16 14:58
🌟🌟Certainty or Transformation?  The banks are split into 2 narratives.  Transformation: Citi & Wells Fargo announcing layoffs while increasing their AI investments, signal a familiar pattern in banking: streamline cost base, modernise infrastructure & hope the transformation is successful.  These moves can translate into long term profitability but the payoff depends on execution & whether legacy systems can be merged well. High potential, high complexity. Certainty: Certainty names like Goldman Sachs & Bank of America operate like wellrun machines.  Predictable earnings &diversified revenue streams.They are steady, reliable & less dramatic. Which camp am I in? Neither. I am in the disciplined camp.  I don't chase narratives. I don't pick f
JPMorgan’s investment-banking (IB) miss is a useful caution signal, but it does not on its own prove a broad-based collapse in capital markets activity. 1) Does the miss imply a wider slowdown in capital markets? More “uneven recovery” than “broad slowdown”. JPM’s miss was product-specific and timing-driven. Reporting indicated the shortfall was materially tied to debt underwriting coming in below what the bank itself had guided, rather than a uniform decline across all capital-markets lines.  The wider industry backdrop is not signalling a freeze. Dealogic data cited by Reuters showed global investment banking revenue rose about 15% in 2025, with M&A volumes also materially higher year on year. That is inconsistent with a generalised capital-markets slump.  Trading strength
avatarxc__
01-14

🚨 JPMorgan's Earnings Bombshell: Banking Giants Stumble in High-Rate Hell? 💥📉

JPMorgan Chase, the titan of Wall Street, just dropped its Q4 2025 bombshell – and it's shaking the financial world! 😲 Profit tumbled 7% to $13 billion, hammered by a massive $2.2 billion hit from snapping up the Apple Card portfolio. Sure, adjusted earnings hit $5.23 per share, smashing past the $5.00 whisper number, but the raw miss on forecasts has investors freaking out. Investment banking fees? Down 5% to $2.3 billion, way below their own guidance – ouch! 📉 Meanwhile, revenue climbed 7% to $46.77 billion, edging out expectations, thanks to a 40% surge in equities trading. But with CEO Jamie Dimon dropping truth bombs about markets ignoring massive risks like geopolitical chaos and inflation ghosts, is this the crack in the armor for big banks? 🤔 Let's break down the numbers that have
🚨 JPMorgan's Earnings Bombshell: Banking Giants Stumble in High-Rate Hell? 💥📉
avatarceuejd
01-17 13:09
nice
avatarMkoh
01-16
Short take: Probably not a great trade for 2026 — at least not yet.The proposed 10% cap on credit card rates would seriously hurt the biggest earners in the space (think Capital One, Amex, Discover, even some of the big banks’ card divisions). That’s a massive hit to their highest-margin business, and the market already priced in a pretty ugly reaction when Trump floated it.If the cap actually gets passed and sticks for the full year, I’d expect more pain and lower multiples for those names. On the flip side, if it gets watered down, delayed, or quietly killed in Congress/bureaucracy (which is very possible), then the stocks could bounce hard from these depressed levels.Right now it feels more like a high-risk “fade the fear” play than a clean bullish setup. I’d wait for more clarity befor

Bank of America (BAC) Continued Momentum From Resilient NII (Net Interest Income)

$Bank of America(BAC)$'s Q4 2025 earnings are scheduled for release on Wednesday, January 14, 2026, before the market opens, with a conference call following at approximately 8:30 a.m. ET. This report covers the period from October to December 2025, wrapping up a year where the banking sector benefited from resilient economic conditions, stabilizing interest rates, and a rebound in dealmaking activity. BAC shares have performed strongly in 2025, outperforming the S&P 500 with a roughly 18% return over the past six months, trading around $55–$57 recently amid broader market volatility. Consensus Expectations and Year-Over-Year Comparison Analysts are forecasting a solid quarter, driven by improved net interest margins, loan growth, and higher in
Bank of America (BAC) Continued Momentum From Resilient NII (Net Interest Income)
avatarShyon
01-15
This earnings season confirms my view that bank stocks are now judged on execution and near-term ROI, not AI spending narratives. Automation and data investment are necessary, but the market is done rewarding long-term promises amid policy and rate uncertainty. From a trading standpoint, I favor higher-certainty names. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs stand out with clearer earnings drivers, while Bank of America remains structurally sound despite a harsh market reaction. For transformation stories like JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, I see potential but higher execution risk. Layoffs and AI investment may lift efficiency over time, but for now I stay in the “certainty” camp, watching for clearer inflection points. @koolgal
$Goldman Sachs(GS)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Bank of America(BAC)$ there is a lot to like about the banks performance at this time in the economic cycle. With high growth in the economy in the United States, there is a strong positive investor sentiment for banking stocks with strong momentum. This results in a high likelihood of price growth for each of the banks. Within this list of banks. The banks with greater commercial exposure are likely to outperform $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ benefiting from deal making in the economy. In terms of lower prospects. The real estate exposed banks $Bank of Ame
Stock Price Movement Analysis for JPMorgan Chase (JPM) JPMorgan Chase (JPM) experienced a 4.19% decline in its stock price, closing at $310.90 on Tuesday. This drop followed the release of its fourth-quarter earnings report, which, despite an adjusted EPS beating Wall Street expectations, revealed a 5% decrease in investment banking fees from the prior year and missed Wall Street estimates by 8%. Key Factors Influencing JPM's Stock Movement: Investment Banking Performance: Although JPMorgan's adjusted Q4 EPS surpassed expectations due to strong trading activity, a significant miss in investment banking fees raised concerns among investors. This shortfall suggests a slower-than-anticipated recovery in capital markets activity. Proposed Credit Card Interest Rate Cap: A major factor contribut
avatarECLC
01-16
Surprised by some earnings reported of US banks and uncertainities still linger.