⚠️ Trump's Tariff Deadline Looms — Market Calm Before the Storm? What happens when politics and markets collide — again? With Trump’s August 1 tariff deadline approaching fast, traders and long-term investors alike are bracing for what could be a pivotal geopolitical flashpoint. Will this be another bluff turned policy, or a headline-grabbing tactic that fizzles out? Either way, markets aren't pricing in much fear yet — and that's what worries me most. 🤔 🎯 My Take: Watch the Undercurrents, Not Just the Headlines Let me be clear — I don’t think we're heading for a 2018-style trade war redux. But I do believe volatility will spike, especially in export-heavy and China-exposed sectors. Trump’s tariff talk is less about economics and more about election leverage. He’s applying pressure at a ti

💥 TSMC Crushes Q2 — Will This Ignite a Chip Sector Comeback? $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   just shocked the Street with a 61% YoY surge in Q2 profit, blowing past analyst forecasts 🔥 Q3 guidance? $31.8–33B revenue — a massive leap from $23.5B a year ago 💹 The stock popped +4% in the U.S. session — is this the moment chip bulls were waiting for? 👀 📈 Q2 Surprise Beat TSMC delivered NT$247.8B in net income for Q2, well above the consensus of NT$237B. Strong demand for high-end chips driving AI workloads and advanced 3nm production pushed margins back near 54%. 📊 Bullish Q3 Guide The company now expects Q3 revenue between $31.8B–$33B, signaling accelerating momentum into H2 2025. Management cited i

This is a dead cat bounce, not a sustainable recovery. Everyone’s getting euphoric about TSMC’s beat, but I think we’re missing the forest for the trees: The AI chip cycle is maturing faster than expected. Yes, demand is still strong, but we’re already seeing signs that the hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Meta) are getting more disciplined about AI capex. The “buy everything GPU-related” phase is ending. TSMC’s advanced node capacity was built for a demand level that may not sustain. China is the elephant in the room. TSMC’s Taiwan location is becoming a bigger geopolitical liability, not smaller. Any serious escalation in cross-strait tensions sends this stock into freefall. The US is also pushing harder for domestic chip production - every CHIPS Act dollar going to Intel and others is a

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1. $Berkshire Hathaway(BRK.A)$ Warren Buffett might have to cancel the retirement party! Berkshire Hathaway has now under performed the S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ by more than 20 percentage points since his announcement 📉📉 The Buffett Premium is gone 💸Image2. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ Bullish Inverse Head & Shoulders Pattern in ASMLImage3. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ SOFI up an astounding 40% over the 3 weeks since forming a Golden Cross 📈📈 Bookmark this for the next time people say Golden Crosses don't mean anything ✅ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileg

All eyes are on ASML (Wed) and TSMC (Thu)—and for good reason. TSMC just posted +39% YoY June sales, fueled by relentless demand from NVIDIA and hyperscalers. That number crushes expectations and suggests their 2Q25 print could beat and guide higher. 📈 TSMC Outlook: Stronger-than-expected CapEx pull-through from AI server builds. High-margin N3E process ramping up. $TSM could reclaim $175 if EPS and guidance align. Look for revenue surprise + upward FY guide. Risk: High expectations = low margin for error. 🔬 ASML Outlook: Q1 miss spooked investors, but insiders hint at rebound in EUV orders. If they announce an uptick in China/TSMC orders + better 2H forecast, $ASML can break above $820. Risk: Any comment on sluggish memory demand = sell trigger. 🧠 The Big Picture: The AI boom isn't over—b

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$   ASML, the world's biggest supplier of computer chip-making equipment, warned on Wednesday that it may not achieve revenue growth in 2026 as chipmakers building factories in the U.S. await clarity on the potential impact of tariffs. Uncertainty in tariff talks has spurred chipmakers in the U.S. to delay finalizing investments, CFO Roger Dassen told journalists on a media call. Shares in ASML fell as much as 10.5 per cent and were on track for their worst day since October, dragging peers ASM, BESI, Soitec lower as well. Investors dumped the shares even as the Dutch group's net bookings, the most closely watched figure in the industry, came in 25 per cent above expectations at 5.54 billio

Not sure if it will spark a semi con surge but I believe the semis have run up quite a bit these past few months, such that investors are skeptical as to whether the run can continue. Profit taking is on the table and fear is definitely high as these stock climbs further. So trade with caution. For long term investors, it does'nt make a difference in the grand scheme of things.

Fellow traders, there’s more drama to watch.Someone has placed a massive bet that chip stocks won’t fall below their previous lows before April 25th. Specifically, the trades involve selling $SMH 20250425 175.0 PUT$ , $TSM 20250425 130.0 PUT$ , and $MU 20250425 60.0 PUT$ . The positions are for 120,000 contracts, 70,000 contracts, and 50,000 contracts, respectively.If this isn’t based on insider information, then something’s definitely fishy.However, as my regular readers know, such blatantly targeted large trades are like waving cash in front of market makers—they’re irresistible bait.It’s

TSMC( $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ) just delivered a jaw-dropping Q1 net profit of NT$361.6 billion ($10.99 billion), smashing market estimates of NT$354.644 billion and signaling a potential semiconductor resurgence. Meanwhile, ASML’s latest quarter painted a gloomier picture, with orders falling short of expectations due to a sluggish chip market and looming U.S. tariff threats. As these two titans navigate choppy waters, investors are left wondering: How will tariffs shake up their businesses? Can semiconductor margins weather the storm? And is TSMC’s rebound a golden opportunity—or a risky gamble? Let’s unpack it all. Tariffs: A Storm Brewing for TSMC and ASML $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ TSMC

$ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ maybe a good thing.

TSMC delivered an outstanding earnings beat[Smile]  This is thanks to AI-driven demand. It is on a strong rally now, so it will be normal to have a mini pull back or consolidation. That said, AI chip demand is still accelerating, so there's still a lot of optimism for the rest of 2025.   

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$   TSM will probably beat estimates, but the key is to give strong guidance. That's what everyone wants to hear. Hopium is addictive.  Like Star Wars, A new hope.

$Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$