1.The best and the worst...interesting chart demonstrating the importance of selecting a good fund manager, but also the different experiences across asset classes (e.g. the worst US large growth manager was better than the best foreign large cap equity manager). That second aspect speaks to the “rising tide lifts all boats” part of asset allocation (in other words, yes pick the right stocks/fund manager, but also: make sure you pick the right asset mix!) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$

1.Heads up -- stocks the world over are about to enter into what has historically been their best month of the year...Different this time??🎅 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.From about now through to May, Risk Assets (stocks, cyclicals/tech stocks, credit spreads + $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ inversely) tend to outperform Defen

Your *bonds* view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): [Bearish = rising yields] [Bullish = falling yields]Bullish (Fundamentals)34%Bullish (Technicals)8.8%Bearish (Fundamentals)46.1%Bearish (Technicals)11.1%Huge change of heart on bonds... HFL?ImageYour equities view/positioning is (primary reason in brackets): $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Bullish (Fundamentals)26.1%Bullish (Technicals)19.8%Bearish (Fundamentals)33.9%Bearish (Technicals)20.3%Back to bearish this week...Imagehttps://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1758959128796647864

The flows show a cycle of hype and doubt $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ The current correction may just be a shakeout on the way to a renewed cycle of hype Yet a formidable wall of worry still faces markets (resurgence risk, fiscal, (geo)politics, expensive valuations, monetary headwinds..)ImageIn Macro and Markets, even for so-called surprises and shocks, the clues are almost always there for those who are willing to look for them.e.g. what pressures are building up, where is the crowd (where are they not), what are the technicals doing, where are the ripples...https://twitter.com/Callum_Thomas/status/1786224249281364128

Historically, on average, September has been the worst month of the year for the S&P500$S&P 500(.SPX)$ (returns were -0.5% on average, and positiveonly 47% of the time).So there are a few things to comment on around this. First of all, 47% is pretty close to 50/50 — albeit it does stand in contrast to some of the other months which were in the 60-70%+ range.Second, September *did not* have the worst drawdown, OR the smallest upside, and it did not have the greatest dispersion of results either.But one thing I will note, when I look at seasonality across different asset classes and markets (also looking at the seasonality of asset class relative performance), it is this Aug-Oct period of the year which is generally the wor

Energy Sector Market Share:This chart is fascinating. As of the latest data, the Energy Sector has an earnings weighting basically *twice* that of its market cap weighting.This is what happens when no one wants to buy energy stocks anymore.I could probably leave it there as the chart itself speaks volumes, but a few points to ponder…First, the disconnect probably says as much about possible upside for energy stocks (blue line goes up) due to ESG energy skepticism, as it does about the prospect thatfalling energy pricesin H2 of 2022 brings the black line back down.Indeed, there are a few examples where the black line did most of the heavy lifting in closing previous sharp disconnects.But as with many things in macro and markets, the trend is your friend. If this is