Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium
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avatarTravis Hoium
05-12 22:43

Long-Short-Term Investing on Wall Street

One of the strange dynamics on Wall Street is the conflict between the short-term nature of trading and the long-term nature of investing.The short-term mindset is easy to see.If a company misses analysts’ guess at earnings a stock will drop, even if management is demonstrating their long-term strategy is working.A new competitor entering the market can cause a stock to drop, even if the threat isn’t hurting their business. (see $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock when Amazon announced a telemedicine product)This short-term mindset is visible on a daily basis and it’s what gives us an advantage as Asymmetric Investors. We can take advantage of short-term blips and buy long-term potential the market is missing.But then we see times like this
Long-Short-Term Investing on Wall Street

HOOD, SOFI, LYFT, UBER & PLUG Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood is hitting on all cylinders and this is before the Gold card (100k in circulation and ~3 million on waitlist) is unleashed at a wider scale.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ The growth of the financial services business is pretty crazy.Image3. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ VS $Uber(UBER)$ Same growth rate.Similar margins.Lyft would need to 4x in value to reach Uber's valuation.ImageImage4. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ Plug Power's shares outstanding have an incredible 27.4% compound annual growth rate.Andy Marsh is a grifting legend!ImageFor whom haven't open CBA
HOOD, SOFI, LYFT, UBER & PLUG Show Strong Bullish Trends

ONON - Investing Ideas Are Everywhere

Two years ago, my wife bought me a pair of $On Holding AG(ONON)$ shoes for my birthday. I had never heard of the company.Suddenly, I saw them everywhere. I did research. I asked people about their On shoes.Since then I’ve bought ONON stock and it’s up over 50%.The stock is even a core in the Asymmetric Portfolio. You never know where a great idea will come from. Your spouse may be a great place to look. Tonight, I’m going out with some fresh THE ROGER Clubhouse shoes. Investing in what you wear is a good philosophy too.For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cas
ONON - Investing Ideas Are Everywhere

Congratulations to all of the LYFT holders!

Congratulations to all of the $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ holders!This is an Asymmetric Investing stock that had a lot of people scratching their heads, but it's already working and has lots of upside with tailwinds from:1. International Expansion2. Buybacks3. Autonomy4. Multiple ExpansionImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.💰Join the TB Contra Telegram Group to Get $10 Trading Vouchers Now🎉
Congratulations to all of the LYFT holders!

Going All-In HIMS!

It’s hard to overstate how well $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ is performing. The company reported 111% growth in the first quarter and is now profitable and generating consistent free cash flow.Management also expects margins to continue expanding 1-3% per year, so in time, this could be a 10-20% operating margin business.Growth in the quarter was certainly driven by GLP-1s, which were still in shortage in the first quarter, allowing Hims & Hers to compound the product and sell it to subscribers at a low price.That shortage ended early in Q2, so growth will slow in the final three quarters of the year, but management is still expecting 56% to 63% revenue growth in 2025, despite the loss of the compounded GLP-1 exemption.A recent partners
Going All-In HIMS!

CROX and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Crocs(CROX)$ Are tariffs going to kill US businesses?It depends.This quote from CROX was interesting. A 10% tariff would be a $45 million impact, or 4.7% of 2024 net income.Keeping the 145% China tariff would be a $130 million impact, 14% of 2024 net income.Seems Crocs will be fine.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Here's a wild stat for you.Coinbase did $3.0 billion in trading volume in the last 24 hoursDeribit did $6.1 billion in volumeSeems like a great deal for Coinbase at a $2.9 billion price tag.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimit
CROX and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

Apple wants to replace Google search in Safari and the market thinks search's days are numbered

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ search has been the week's topic after $Apple(AAPL)$ executives said in court that Safari searches fell for the first time in April, and AI could eventually replace Google as the default in the Safari browser.Shares of Alphabet have fallen 6.2% in the past five days and are now down 25.4% from their peak earlier this year.Is Alphabet in trouble, or is a tech giant trading for 18.2x trailing earnings a buying opportunity?The history of transformational disruptions can help guide us here.Building On What Came BeforeWhat I think investors are missing is the fact that disrupted businesses don’t typically disappear.AI Agents and cha
Apple wants to replace Google search in Safari and the market thinks search's days are numbered

Is GOOG Search Screwed?

Without search (Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ /AI threat) and the network business (antitrust) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is left with this terrible business.ImageHowever,this is one of the worst takes I’ve seen. Google monetizes clicks better than any company on the internet. And they’re going to be replaced dollar for dollar on Safari by OpenAI, who is lighting money on fire and has no ad model? It’s easy to yell “disruption”. It’s hard to logically lay out how GOOG is screwed but AAPL isn’t.And,Market Narrative:GOOG Search is Screwed $Walt Disney(DIS)$ No one is traveling and their movies stinkEarnings Reality:GOOG Sear
Is GOOG Search Screwed?

HIMS and DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ What is the superpower of Hims & Hers?It's the aggregator of demand in healthcare. CVS doesn't "own" demand. Your doctor doesn't have power over pharma companies.Hims & Hers can pull together the demand of millions of people to make the experience better!2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Disney is spending $60 billion over a decade to expand parks and experiences.But this brand new theme park in Abu Dhabi will require ZERO capital. It's entirely upside for Disney.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out
HIMS and DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends

RIVN & HIMS Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ Rivian got $7,500 from the tax credit and $6,300 per vehicle from regulatory credits in 2024.If you want to argue not all R1s were under the $80k limit, that's true, but ALL of R2 and R3s would get ~$13,800 more expensive.2. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ This was an incredible answer and shows that Andrew Dudum is ALL-IN on disrupting the status quo in healthcare. Think deeply about the WHY behind this answer to understand why I'm so bullish on Hims & Hers.ImageWhat is happening? Did someone read the earnings report just after the market opened?Image For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 i
RIVN & HIMS Show Strong Bullish Trends

Disney - The biggest news will be ESPN over the top in "early fall"

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ reports earnings on Thursday, and I think the biggest news will be ESPN over the top in "early fall".I think "early fall" means before the NFL season begins because it creates urgency.I'm looking for 2 things to make this a hit.1. More ContentESPN's content alone is a compelling product, but it's not a "no-brainer", even for sports fans. What would make it a "no-brainer"?Fox doesn't have a streaming service but has valuable content like the NFL, MLB, NASCAR, and college football.Fox should be looking for the biggest check, which isn't going to come from Max or Peacock, who are struggling. And Netflix doesn't want to license sports.The natural pick is ESPN.2. PriceToday's Disney triple-play bundle starts at $16.99 and goes up to $
Disney - The biggest news will be ESPN over the top in "early fall"

Lots of companies buy back stock, but few do it well

In another shocking twist, the stock market continues to rise despite tariffs leading to a collapse of imports and a potential supply shock in the next few months. But I’ve discussed that enough, and I’ll take a break from the uncertainty this week.What Is a BuybackFor a public company, buying back shares of stock is just like buying out other owners of a private business.If you have a private business with 10 equal owners that’s worth $1 million, then buy out one owner for $100,000, you have 9 equal owners.If the business grows in value again to $1 million, the stake will rise in value from $100,000 to $111,111.The way we see this in public stocks is through earnings per share.Buybacks reduce the denominator of earnings/share.🔼 Buybacks🔼 Earnings per ShareBut not all buybacks are good.Rul
Lots of companies buy back stock, but few do it well

HIMS, AAPL and SOFI Will Surge Upward

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Big quarter for Hims & Hers this week. What are you expecting?Image2. $Apple(AAPL)$ It's amazing Buffett has sold out and the stock still trades for 33x earnings.Given these trends, I would say Apple is worth 12-15x earnings, at best.Image3. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ This is incredible performance from SoFi's financial services segment and there are a lot of product additions on the way.ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a
HIMS, AAPL and SOFI Will Surge Upward

The reason why going AI-first company

I think a lot of companies (maybe most) think like this. But saying you’re “AI-first” and being AI-native are two different things. I fear a lot of companies burning bridges to a brighter future where they still don’t have an advantage.The more I invest, the more I am convinced the perfect level of stock research is far shallower than most people think.If you know specifics about contracts, do channel checks, build models, you're too deep.See the forest. It will lead to simpler & better decisions.Keep in mind: Bear Stearns failed in March 2008 when unemployment was 5.1%Lehman Brothers Failed in September 2008 when unemployment was 6.1%The stock market bottomed in March 2009Unemployment peaked in October 2009There's a lag between the catalyst and the outcome.For whom haven't open CBA ca
The reason why going AI-first company

HIMS shows it's a platform, not just a compounder

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Up 35% pre-market after announcing a deal w/ Novo Nordisk on Wegovy.The pricing is what's interesting. $599/mo for Wegovy and Ozempic, Mounjaro, and Zepbound are still $1,899/mo. Generic Liraglutide at $299/mo.HIMS shows it's a platform, not just a compounder.ImageImagePS: It could put pressure on others to lower prices and improve access. This is the power of an aggregator disrupting the old doctor/pharmacy model that had an incentive to keep prices high.It's not a straight line up, but this is why I own the disruptor, not the disrupted.For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as wel
HIMS shows it's a platform, not just a compounder

Who Stole Christmas?

Spring is in the air, but at retailers all across the country, the topic is Christmas.What are they going to put on shelves?How much is the product going to cost?And how much are they going to charge?As it stands today, tariffs on imports from China are 145%. If you’re planning on buying toys, blankets, a portable speaker, a hat, or just about anything on a kid’s Christmas list, it probably comes from China.145% tariffs are no joke for these items.Just look at the basic math on how a $20 item gets hit by tariffs.Prices would go up 150% in stores...or more!I’ve heard the ballpark math is a 4x increase in prices because tariffs may go up from here.And these decisions need to be made NOW!More on that in a second.I’m writing this with a backdrop that the market doesn’t seem to be worried about
Who Stole Christmas?

CMG & ASML Under Pressure

1. $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ Consumers are probably a little bit weaker than a lot of people think.CMG Chipotle's transactions were down 2.3%, and American Airlines withdrew full-year guidance and said Q2 revenue will be down 0.5%, despite a 3% increase in seat miles.Tariffs could break the consumer.2. $ASML Holding NV(ASML)$ I understand how important ASML is, but with China chip controls and TSMC trying to reduce its dependence, is this now a no-growth company?ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cash Boost
CMG & ASML Under Pressure

Alphabet is doing great

$Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Search is doing OK with 10% revenue growth. But that's not the story for Alphabet.YouTube continues to be the biggest streaming service (bigger than $Netflix(NFLX)$ ) with 10% growth in ads. Netflix is worth $470 billion, so is YouTube worth over $500 billion?Subscriptions and services are the under-discussed segment. Revenue was up 19% and this is driven by Android and subscriptions that include Gemini!Finally, Google Cloud did $12.3 billion in revenue with an 18% operating margin. At that runrate, this may be a $1 trillion business. As a business, Alphabet is doing great. Don't underestimate the company's lead in AI and how i
Alphabet is doing great

The Game Is Rigged

On Tuesday morning, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent held a closed-door meeting with large investors like hedge funds and pension funds at an event put on by JPMorgan. He said the trade war with China was “unsustainable,” and he thought tension would come down soon. Not surprisingly, the market shot higher when news of his comments broke.Bessent knows the market hangs on his every word about tariffs, so who did he tell?Wall Street insiders.He didn’t make the comments when the market was closed either, which is the standard time to release market-moving news.Let’s be honest. Wall Street has a leg up on all of us, and this is just another example of how.The game is rigged.You know it.I know it.To make matters worse, someone inside the meeting may have made a $2 million profit in 30 minutes o
The Game Is Rigged

Tesla’s Bizarre Justification for Testing in Austin

Here is the most bizarre part of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ yesterday's conference call "I mean in very basic terms, if that -- if we're seeing an accident every 10,000 miles, well, then you have to drive 10,000 miles on average before you get in an accident or an intervention. So it's like okay. I mean we must be really -- you don't have to be very worked up by the sheer number of Teslas doing in Austin right now. We like it's going to look pretty bizarre.There's just always a convoy of Teslas going -- just going all over to Austin in circles. But yes, I just can't emphasize this enough. In order to get a figure on the long-tail things, it's 1 in 10,000, that says 1 in 20,000 miles or 1 in 30,000. The average person drives 10,000 miles in a year. So no
Tesla’s Bizarre Justification for Testing in Austin

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