Travis Hoium
Travis Hoium
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avatarTravis Hoium
05-14 23:32

HIMS is in a short squeeze

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ is in a short squeeze. Here’s the lesson for anyone looking to be short a stock.1. Don’t short a company growing 100%+ Y/Y2. Don’t short a company expanding margins3. Don’t fight the retail/influencer crowd (see $GameStop(GME)$ and $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ )4. Don’t short based on valuation💀ImageFor whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cash Boost Account and enjoy up to 6 months of Commission-Free trading.
HIMS is in a short squeeze
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-04-04

Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA

1.SPOT $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ Spotify's user base has increased at a 26.6% compound annual growth rate.ImageA year ago, I wrote that SPOT had 10x potential over the next 10 years. 1 year in, the stock is up 118.4% and I'm more bullish than ever. 2.DIS $Walt Disney(DIS)$ As the parks go, Disney goes.Image3.NVDA $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ NVIDIA's data center business didn't exist a decade ago. Insane!Imagehttps://twitter.com/TravisHoium/status/1775558658186695161
Hot stock reviews - SPOT, DIS & NVDA
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-04-04

Investing Over-Simplified

Investing Over-SimplifiedIf you can explain how the stocks you own will grow earnings AND benefit from multiple expansion you are 5 steps ahead of most investors. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ ImageYou won't beat the market if no one thinks you're a little crazy.90% of beating the market is really just:Buy great companiesDoing nothing for YEARSProfitIt's harder than it looks, but the formula is simple.https://twitter.com/Travi
Investing Over-Simplified
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-02-13

Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ hasn’t been the most popular stock over the past year and that’s understandable for a lot of reasons. Films have been disappointing, cable TV is dying, and the streaming business is losing money like crazy.But in the August 2023 spotlight of Disney, I laid out how the company could be a leader in streaming everything from proprietary IP to sports with an experiences business attached.Q1 2024 financial results showed Bob Iger is not only taking Disney in that direction, but he may be burning some bridges along the way.First Things FirstAt a high level, the quarter was about treading water on the top line and cost cuts on the bottom line. The cuts were deeper than expected and that’s why the market reacted positively to the quarter
Disney's Bob Iger Isn't Playing Around
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-09-26

Slow and Steady Wins the Race

The stock market is weird.You can do a great analysis. Be correct about your thesis. And sometimes, the stock doesn’t react for months or even years.Eventually, fundamentals win, but short-term emotions and speculation drive the market.I’m seeing this dynamic play out in $ON Semiconductor(ON)$ . The company hasn’t released so much as a press release since earnings came out on August 13, 2024, and yet the stock is up 22.1% in that time. The market’s sentiment changed, but why?The Same StoryNothing about On Holding has changed in the past month.Nothing has changed in the past year.The company just keeps delivering steady growth quarter after quarter.Why is the stock up?I could spin a tale to tell you why shares are moving. Maybe it was
Slow and Steady Wins the Race
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-06-15

Optimistic Outlook: SPOT & DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ The premium business (green) gets most of the attention, but the upside for Spotify is advertising (blue).Today's Creative Lab along with “Quick Audio” to create scripts & voiceovers using generative AI is huge.Been talking about this for a year and it's finally here!Image2. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ Took the kids to Inside Out 2 today. I don’t want to say “Disney is back!” But it was a solid movie with some big laughs and just enough emotion. Not as good as Inside Out 1 or Onward, but much better than Luca, Soul, Elemental, and Turning Red.https://x.com/TravisHoium/status/1801663282018697591
Optimistic Outlook: SPOT & DIS Show Strong Bullish Trends

HOOD, SOFI, LYFT, UBER & PLUG Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ Robinhood is hitting on all cylinders and this is before the Gold card (100k in circulation and ~3 million on waitlist) is unleashed at a wider scale.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ The growth of the financial services business is pretty crazy.Image3. $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ VS $Uber(UBER)$ Same growth rate.Similar margins.Lyft would need to 4x in value to reach Uber's valuation.ImageImage4. $Plug Power(PLUG)$ Plug Power's shares outstanding have an incredible 27.4% compound annual growth rate.Andy Marsh is a grifting legend!ImageFor whom haven't open CBA
HOOD, SOFI, LYFT, UBER & PLUG Show Strong Bullish Trends

GOOG, SPOT, MSFT and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ Pull out Google Cloud and Waymo and you still have an amazing business with Alphabet's core. 2. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ When a tech company gets religion about cash flow the turnaround can happen fast. 3. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ At the current rate of capex growth, Microsoft will be FCF NEGATIVE in ~2026. This is a company with falling ROIC trading for 12.5x sales. Makes you think... 4. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ A reminder that Coinbase is much more than an exchange business. And with the growth of USDC the stablecoin business is gett
GOOG, SPOT, MSFT and COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

ABNB & COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

1. $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ Investors are worried about growth, but 12% revenue growth and $4.5 billion in FCF in 2024 is pretty amazing.GBV rising 15% ex-FX indicates strong demand, although management sandbagged guidance, expecting 7-9% growth.Image2. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ Massive quarter. 📈Transaction revenue nearly tripled sequentially.💸Stablecoins fell a bit because of lower rates and Binance entering the pool.💰Coinbase now has $9.3 billion in cash assets.More thoughts after the call.Image
ABNB & COIN Show Strong Bullish Trends

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day

On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day. $Netflix(NFLX)$ in streaming $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ in search/mail $Apple(AAPL)$ in hardware $Uber(UBER)$ in ride-sharing $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ in retail $Intuit(INTU)$ for taxes $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ If the future of healthcare is the personalization of treatments, why wouldn't a company that's built to personalize solutions be a winner?Moa
On the internet, the power goes to the company people CHOOSE to interact with every day
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-01-24

3M is doing badly in 2023

1. $3M(MMM)$ Earnings and FCF are strong because opex is down and efficiency is up.We're investing less in capex, so FCF > net income!Our demise is accelerating.I was at 3M from 2001 to 2008 when this demise began, but it's sad to see management run the business so poorly.Image2. $Verizon(VZ)$ Consumer ads is impressive but SG&A costs were up 11.7% and debt went up in the quarter. Conference call this morning but seems like a mixed bag.Image3. $Spotify Technology S.A.(SPOT)$ I don't think SPOT's video products get enough attention.They're like a back door to becoming a YouTube competitor.4. $Walt Disney(DIS)$ &
3M is doing badly in 2023

RGTI, SOFI & MGM Under Pressure

1. $Rigetti Computing(RGTI)$ Rigetti has $11.9 million in revenue and a $3.7 billion market cap.Even if quantum is the future, this is a bad stock to bet on because the fundamentals are so bad.Image2. $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ If SoFi is becoming more of a platform company, facilitating loans through its "lending platform" like we saw with the $2 billion Fortress deal, that growth will show up here, not in lending revenue.Image3. $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ MGM stock is down 23% in the past year.If management just keeps the buyback level flat, it could reduce shares outstanding at a 20%/yr pace right now.Image
RGTI, SOFI & MGM Under Pressure
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-08-16

Back buying $NVDA but selling most chip and big tech stocks

Billionaire David Tepper's Portfolio UpdateBack buying $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ but selling most chip and big tech stocks. Also really likes ride-sharing.🤔Buying: $Lyft, Inc.(LYFT)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $JD.com(JD)$ $Uber(UBER)$ Selling: $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Intel(INTC)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Qualcomm(QCOM)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Image PS: Sentiment is correlated with a st
Back buying $NVDA but selling most chip and big tech stocks

The top isn't representative of underlying value

Let's talk about falling stocks. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $DJIA(.DJI)$ This is a normal part of the market.The top isn't representative of underlying value.Neither is the bottom.Look at the long-term and position yourself for success over 10-20 years. A couple of months is mostly volatility.Stocks can ALWAYS fall more.Don't anchor your view of a company based on the top of the market.Understand where you think the market is wrong about the long-term. That's when you back the truck up.
The top isn't representative of underlying value

ONON - Investing Ideas Are Everywhere

Two years ago, my wife bought me a pair of $On Holding AG(ONON)$ shoes for my birthday. I had never heard of the company.Suddenly, I saw them everywhere. I did research. I asked people about their On shoes.Since then I’ve bought ONON stock and it’s up over 50%.The stock is even a core in the Asymmetric Portfolio. You never know where a great idea will come from. Your spouse may be a great place to look. Tonight, I’m going out with some fresh THE ROGER Clubhouse shoes. Investing in what you wear is a good philosophy too.For whom haven't open CBA can know more from below:🏦 Open a CBA today and enjoy privileges of up to SGD 20,000 in trading limit with 0 commission. Trade SG, HK, US stocks as well as ETFs unlimitedly!Find out more here:Trade on a Cas
ONON - Investing Ideas Are Everywhere

One Asymmetric Crypto Opportunity: Why This Game Stands Out

You probably don't follow me for crypto takes and I don't post about crypto often anymore, so I'll keep this short. This is the one asymmetric opportunity I'm in.1. The team has been building the game for years through the bear.2. Economics and gameplay are innovative and only possible on the blockchain.3. Multi-chain and crypto isn't required to play, opening up the market.4. The assets seem extremely undervalued with YAKU at a ~$4 million market cap.Enough said.
One Asymmetric Crypto Opportunity: Why This Game Stands Out
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-12-27

AI Capex Focus Shifts from 2025 to 2026

In 6 days, the AI narrative will change from:2025 capex is up HUGE!toWhat is 2026 capex?The answer to that question and where the spending will happen (ie. where is there ROI?) will determine AI stock performance in 2025. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $SoundHound AI Inc(SOUN)$ The returns to being the market leader in AI seem lower than any technology in history. A competitor 6 months behind could see- Costs 90%+ lower- Speed 10x faster If the time to deploy is long (autonomous driving, business model disruption, research), I like the lagga
AI Capex Focus Shifts from 2025 to 2026
avatarTravis Hoium
2024-06-28

HIMS is a net positive in an absolute nightmare healthcare system

Shares of $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ are down 11% at the open of trading on what I would call a "journalistic short report". Hunterbrook dubs itself a "investigative and global reporting" site, but it's ALL negative reporting about disruptive technologies/companies and they happen to have an investment arm that's SHORT HIMS.That doesn't mean it's wrong, but the context is always important. Even the headline uses "shady supplier" and "not FDA approved" so there's clearly a slant.Is there merit? OF COURSE! Claim 1: HIMS GLP-1 is a "knockoff" and uses a "loophole" to sell them. Truth: Kind of. The image below is from the FDA. Compounded forms of GLP-1 are legal while approved medications are in a shortage. That could last for years.It seems
HIMS is a net positive in an absolute nightmare healthcare system

Is GOOG Search Screwed?

Without search (Apple $Apple(AAPL)$ /AI threat) and the network business (antitrust) $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ is left with this terrible business.ImageHowever,this is one of the worst takes I’ve seen. Google monetizes clicks better than any company on the internet. And they’re going to be replaced dollar for dollar on Safari by OpenAI, who is lighting money on fire and has no ad model? It’s easy to yell “disruption”. It’s hard to logically lay out how GOOG is screwed but AAPL isn’t.And,Market Narrative:GOOG Search is Screwed $Walt Disney(DIS)$ No one is traveling and their movies stinkEarnings Reality:GOOG Sear
Is GOOG Search Screwed?

Stocks Can Go Down

It’s easy to forget that stocks can go down when the market is going up. I don’t know who said it or what the exact saying is, but as David Gardner said, “Stocks go down faster than they go up, but go up more than they go down.”I want to stress a few points in Asymmetric Frameworks that are key at times like this:We need to think in years and decades, not days and weeks. This is our biggest advantage over the market.You should feel greedier when stocks fall and more fearful when they rise.Buying when sentiment is bad is hard, but it’s key to asymmetric returns.Uncertainty is our friend.If a stock falls despite great financial trends, that’s good news for us as investors.These are easy words to write. They’re simple to understand in theory. They’re more difficult to live through.Amazon’s As
Stocks Can Go Down

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