The Week Ahead Here’s what I’m watching. The market has been in a strange place the past few weeks. Stocks seem to rise or fall rapidly depending on posts about negotiations with Iran, a fight that didn’t need to happen and has had little impact on the global economy, despite fears to the contrary. AI spending keeps rising, despite companies saying they aren’t seeing an ROI. And with all of my skepticism about certain segments of the market, earnings have been solid. So, here’s what I’m watching this week: Iran Peace Rate Cut Hope AI in Politics Valuations More on that in a moment. What I’m Watching It’s a light earnings week, so here’s what I’m watching most closely. Iran Peace Deal Markets are surging this morning after President Trump announced a deal with Iran that would open the Strai

Before I get to the SpaceX IPO, I’m going to be doing my regular State of the Portfolio series starting tomorrow. I hope this helps show what I do, and don’t, like about the stocks in the Asymmetric Portfolio today. After a rough start to 2026, my regular reviews have me liking the long-term trajectory of most companies, and valuations are compelling, but that doesn’t mean the market agrees with me. That will be going to premium subscribers and will be completed in a series of articles over the next few days. Now, on with my thoughts on SpaceX’s IPO. The SpaceX IPO $SpaceX(SPCX)$ is going public on Friday with a stock price of $135 per share and a market cap of $1.77 trillion. To be honest, this is one of the wildest IPOs I’ve ever seen. The debat

According to Cox Automotive, EV sales have dropped dramatically in the past 2 quarters (no surprise with the tax credit gone) in the U.S. What's interesting is that $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ and $Lucid Group Inc(LCID)$ are increasing supply in a market that's seeing demand destruction and interest rates are rising, putting further pressure on prices and demand. Why would buyers suddenly have interest in these EVs when they're trending to ICE vehicles already? It's a mix I wouldn't want to own. Disclosure: Short RIVN via long-term puts. I know, I know, I'm the Rivian hater. But come on! No one buying an SUV wants rear wheel drive! This makes it unusable anywhere it snows. Realistically, the R2 starts

The answer may shock you. One of the best quotes about valuation I’ve ever seen came from Sun Microsystems’ CEO after the dot-com crash. At 10x revenues, to give you a 10-year payback, I have to pay you 100% of revenues for 10 straight years in dividends. Zero costs. Zero R&D. Zero taxes. Zero employees. What were you thinking? Sun Microsystems CEO Scott McNealy How much of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is trading for this crazy valuation today? The answer may shock you. I’ll get to that in a moment. Stock Valuations This post from Thierry was what had me digging into valuations today. It’s true that we’ve normalized 10x price-to-sales multiples, but as long-term investors, we shouldn’t because it’s extremely difficult to live up to that valuation.

Shares of $MGM Resorts International(MGM)$ surged this week on news that the company got a buyout offer from Peoples Incorporated, formerly known as IAC, the name I’m going to use here. The offer is for all of MGM for $48.30 per share. Here is the letter in full: Dear Members of the Board of Directors: People Incorporated (f/k/a IAC) began investing in MGM in 2020, based on our view that it represents a durable growth business not easily displaced by technology. We believe that MGM’s assets and businesses are not currently realizing their full potential in the public markets and that it will be difficult to correct this situation in MGM’s current form as a public company. Accordingly, we would like to work with MGM to agree on a transaction in whic

One of the things you develop after a few decades of investing is battle scars and a historical view of where we are today. History never repeats, but it often rhymes. As we’ve watched some of the absolutely crazy stock performance in 2026, I think it’s important to give some of that historical context to some parts of the market. I don’t know how this all ends, but I know how it’s ended before. I’ve seen these growth numbers. I’ve felt the investor confidence. And I’ve learned lessons along the way. The Market’s Rocket Ships Today, the market is bidding up all stocks related to AI, semiconductors, rockets, and dreams. Some of the stocks rising rapidly are seeing outstanding earnings, and we could debate if those are sustainable or not, but others are spending money at a growing clip to fu

For those of us looking for signs of an AI bubble popping, there are no signs. Earnings coming out of chip, energy, and infrastructure stocks are incredible right now. As trillions of dollars are poured into the AI buildout, there seems to be no end to the exponential growth for the companies involved. It’s not just $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ that’s seeing growth and guiding for 🚀 demand. It’s $Intel(INTC)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Bloom Energy Corp(BE)$ $Cerebras Systems(CBRS)$ to name a few. Anyone who can make a chip or build some energy is going to the moon. And that exponential grow

In early 2021, inflation was something written about in history books. Unless you remembered the late 1970s, you had never really experienced inflation. At the end of 2021, inflation was a very real problem for real people, but the market thought it was a short-term event. Stocks rose nearly 30% during the year, and there was reason to be optimistic as jobs opened up and the pandemic subsided. But that euphoria only lasted so long. Inflation caused very real changes in how people spent money and prompted a major response from the Federal Reserve. When the market finally woke up, it wiped out all of 2021’s gains and, in the case of the Nasdaq, then some. Are we in the same place today? It may be worse. But more on that in a moment. What’s Up With Inflation? April inflation data — known as t

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ profits are soaring, there’s no doubt about that. And the market has gone higher with those profits. My question is around what’s sustainable and what isn’t in today’s economy. For example, can you guess what company this quote is about? [Company X] today posted robust earnings that roughly tripled expectations, a surge primarily caused by sales in its memory division. Yep, it’s Micron $Micron Technology(MU)$ ( ▼ 6.62% ). Now, guess what year this was written? I’ll give you a hint, it wasn’t 2026. It was 2000. September 26, 2000, to be exact. Micron is by its nature a cyclical stock. When times are good, profits surge and the money is reinvested in growing capacity, which inevitably lead

1. $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ Earnings after close today. I'm looking at 2 things. 1. Market share (vs Ro), which has been falling. Is that trend starting to shift? 2. Revenue guidance. Info below, but Q1 may be bad and guidance may be 📈. Hims Guidance: $2.7-$2.9 billion Analyst Est.: $2.72 billion Guidance up $100 million on the revenue side, but Adj. EBITDA margins at the low end. IMO, growth is more important now, not margin. Shares choppy after hours. More soon. 2. $GoPro(GPRO)$ Sad to see $GPRO slowly meeting an end. For me, a lot of lessons were learned with this company about differentiation, bundling, and moats in technology. The biggest lesson: A cool product doesn't = a great business.

My wife called this week at an unusual time for her. What could it be? Was she in an accident? Did something happen at work? Are the kids OK? None of the above… It cost $80 to fill the gas tank! That was the emergency. This is a very real problem for the economy and the market. Food and gasoline are the two items we buy that we feel almost vividly. And prices seem to be going up and up. On the jobs front, it isn’t much better. If you’ve known anyone who has had to look for a job recently, you know the job market isn’t great. No wonder consumer confidence is low. But more on that in a moment. The Confusing State of the Market I watch earnings and economic data on a daily basis, and at times, the data and the market seem to move in opposite directions. This is one of those times. Consumer Co

The stock market has always had a problem with the known versus the unknown. We know what’s happened in the past, and that can create a narrative that’s either positive or negative. And it’s easy to extrapolate the recent past to infinity. But the future is inherently unknown. In 2022, $Netflix(NFLX)$ saw revenue fall sequentially in the fourth quarter, and the company’s growth was clearly decelerating. The slowdown was a shock following solid numbers during the pandemic, and shares lost 75% of their value in early 2022. But late 2022/early 2023 was also an inflection point for the business. Revenue growth picked up in the back half of 2023, and the company has posted solid revenue growth from then until today. No surprise, the stock also did well

There’s a reason investing in energy is (usually) boring. The energy industry is usually a relatively slow-moving industry with periodic spikes and crashes in commodity prices, leading to bankruptcies when someone takes a few too many risks. It’s possible to make money in energy, but it’s usually a slow and steady wins the race kind of business. The current environment is telling us “this time is different” as AI changes energy needs around the world. But is it? Euphoria in energy often ends in disaster. I’m seeing a lot of new energy experts these days. Investors who a few months ago were experts on chips are now lecturing about the economics of gas turbines and fuel cells. They cite backlogs measured in years and a new bottleneck to AI’s explosive growth. We’ve seen this before. I’ve see