AfraSimon
AfraSimon
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avatarAfraSimon
48 minutes ago

War Risk Rising: 7 Stocks That Could Benefit — LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, XOM, ESLT

Trump just started the war with Iran! 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 vs 🇮🇷 Here are 7️⃣ stocks most likely to benefit! 1/ $Lockheed Martin(LMT)$ Major US defense contractor producing fighter jets, missiles, and defense systems. The company will benefit because major conflicts drive higher US and allied defense spending, accelerating orders, replenishment of munitions, and long-term modernization contracts. It supplies the US. military with systems such as: - F-35 Lightning II fighter - Patriot PAC-3 missile interceptors - HIMARS rocket systems, - Aegis missile defense components, Additionally, Israel operates the F-35I “Adir,” F-16 variants, and uses Lockheed-produced components and interceptors. Crucially, $LMT supplies the Iron Dome’s Tamir and David’s Sling systems in i
War Risk Rising: 7 Stocks That Could Benefit — LMT, RTX, NOC, GD, BA, XOM, ESLT
avatarAfraSimon
02-28 13:59

Zeta is an AI winner, not a SaaS loser!

Some of you already know that 2026 has been brutal for Software-as-a-Service companies, as investors fear AI-driven disruption will lead to a slowdown in growth. $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ ’s stock was pulled down in this panic, being down 38% before earnings, from its January high. However, that didn’t make much sense, as the company doesn’t offer simple commoditized software on a per-seat subscription basis. Zeta is a clear AI winner, and the market is starting to accept this reality, as the stock has jumped over 20% since the Q4 2025 earnings release. Revenue $395M +25.4% vs $379M estimate. ADJ EBITDA $95M +35.7% vs $91M. ADJ EBIT $75M +40.7% vs $72M. ADJ EPS $0.28 +43% vs $0.23. GAAP Net income of $6.5M. FCF $61M +90% vs $49M. These we
Zeta is an AI winner, not a SaaS loser!
avatarAfraSimon
02-27 15:39

Nu Q4 2025 Earnings Review - Excellent execution once again!

Yesterday, $Nu Holdings Ltd.(NU)$ bank reported earnings, and they were again excellent, with the Brazilian fintech executing across all verticals. Total revenues +56.8% to $4.7B, beating the $4.5B estimate by 3.6%. Net income +62.6% to $898.5M. EPS +60.2%, meeting the estimate of $0.18. ARPU +40.2% to $15. Cost per ARPU remained stable at 80 cents. The number of customers increased by 4M, +14.7%, to 131M. Yet, the stock is down 6% in after-hours, so there was clearly something that the market didn’t like. After going through the results and listening to the earnings call, I believe I have identified 4 key reasons the stock is falling: 1. Regulatory headwind with secured loans in Brazil. 2. One-off cost in Mexico. 3. “Investment Year” guidance. 4. N
Nu Q4 2025 Earnings Review - Excellent execution once again!
avatarAfraSimon
02-27 15:36

CRM is not cheap!

$Salesforce.com(CRM)$ is not cheap! Just because it trades for the lowest P/FCF multiple ever at 12, doesn't mean it's a buy! 1) Historical multiples are backward-looking. There is a reason that CRM traded for 38x P/FCF in 2018. They were growing top-line at 25%, and EBIT margin was at 4%. There was a lot of potential for growth and margin expansion. 2) P/FCF is not actually 12, because SBC is 8.5% of revenues, about the same as in 2018. It was one thing to have SBC when you are growing at 25% and completely another when you can't crack 10%. 3) Adjusting for SBC, P/FCF is actually 16. SBC eats away 23% of FCF. 4) Acquisitions are stinkers, $58B of Goodwill - $8B for Informatica - $15.7B for Tableau - $27.7B for Slack The company doesn't have a reco
CRM is not cheap!
avatarAfraSimon
02-27 15:33

APP Down 20% Overreaction or Rare AI Ad Compounder Opportunity?

$AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ is down 20%+ 🔴 Yet, Growth is INCREDIBLE, Margins are out of this world, and Global TAM is $1T+. Here is my $APP Investment Thesis: 1/ What does $APP do? Listen to the CEO explain it. It is simple: “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted, the trouble is, I don’t know which half.” $APP sells an answer to this old advertising dilemma. AppLovin is an AI-based advertising platform that's focused on mobile apps but is expanding to WEB and Streaming. 2/ AppDiscovery $APP AXON AI engine uses sophisticated AI models trained on billions of anonymized device interactions to find the best place for ads to maximise ROI. This service carefully analyses the advertised app and then uses AXON's predictive algorithms to help adv
APP Down 20% Overreaction or Rare AI Ad Compounder Opportunity?
avatarAfraSimon
02-26 13:51

Iren Investment Thesis!

By now, everyone and their grandmother knows that the world is experiencing a once-in-a-century AI-driven technological revolution. However, if we want AI to be able to do more than just create silly cat videos, it needs to be properly trained on lots of high-quality data. Furthermore, for this data to be processed, the world needs to build more data centers than it has ever built before! Researchers at McKinsey forecast that by 2030, data center capex will reach $7T and data center capacity will almost triple to 219 GW! To meet this insatiable demand for computing power, capacity will come from clever and previously overlooked places. And increasingly, a trend has emerged of bitcoin mining companies turning into AI data center businesses. For years, aspiring crypto entrepreneurs built eve
Iren Investment Thesis!

My Moat Rankings

My Moat Rankings

5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap

5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap 1/ $DLocal Limited(DLO)$ $DLO provides payment solutions in 40+ emerging markets, enabling large enterprises to accept hundreds of local payment methods. - $4B Market Cap - $35.4B Payment Volumes - 149% Payment Volumes Retention - $222M EBITDA - $171M Net Income - FWD P/E 17 - Growing Volumes by 50%+, Revenues by 40%+, EPS by 60% 2/ $Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ $ZETA is a marketing technology company that uses data and AI to help businesses acquire, retain, and grow customers through sophisticated digital campaigns. - $4B Market Cap - 180 $1M+ ARR Customers - 392 $100K-$1M ARR Customers - $64M EBITDA - $160M FCF - FWD P/FCF 18 - Growing Revenues with 20%
5️⃣ Undervalued Companies Under $5B Market Cap

5 KPIs to Watch as $ZETA Reports Earnings

$Zeta Global Holdings Corp.(ZETA)$ is releasing the earnings tomorrow! Here are 5️⃣ KPIs to watch! 1/ Scaled Customer Count In Q3 $ZETA grew total large customers by 20%. $1M+ ARR Customers by 25%. Any acceleration is welcome. 2/ Revenue Growth Analysts expect: - $379M - +20.5% Y/Y - +12.5% Q/Q 3/ GAAP Profitability Analysts expect: - $62M - +305% Y/Y - +16,000% Q/Q 4/ 2026 Guidance Analysts expect: - Revenue $1.73B +34.2% - EBITDA $383M +39.3% - Net Income $89M +324% - FCF $224M +42% A beat is a must! 5/ 2028 Guidance - Revenue $2.1B - ADJ EBITDA $525M - FCF $340M Investors would like to see $ZETA significantly increase the guidance to incorporate the Marigold acquisition and synergies. A 2029 Guidance would also be welcome. For SG users only, We
5 KPIs to Watch as $ZETA Reports Earnings

My Stop-Loss Framework Explained Using SPY

Plenty of different opinions on stop losses. Should you use a hard stop? mental stop? where do I place it? All good questions. I'll add *my opinion* to the mix. I'm primarily a swing trader. Most of my stops are mental nowadays. And If I do plan to stop out...it's in the last 10 minutes of the trading day or week. Here's why: Because I'm waiting for larger timeframe candle closes (fancy way of saying: how do the daily + weekly candles close?). So I typically won't stop out until I see a daily or weekly candle close below my level right at EOD. With the trickery, choppiness, and liquidity grabs of the current market, I often see my level broken, and then recovered (+ more, by EOD). Look at $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ below for example. Daily c
My Stop-Loss Framework Explained Using SPY

Got a $1M windfall? Here is how you should invest to never work again!

1/ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $125K The next-generation dedicated AI Cloud Platform. They are reimagining the cloud for the AI era with a Cloud platform designed especially for training and deploying AI models. The first AI companies relied on generic cloud setups. This was expensive, slow to deploy, and not optimized for AI performance. $NBIS is changing it. Their $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ GPUs, custom-built servers are integrated with AI training software that's pre-configured and ready to scale. Developers can move seamlessly from a single GPU to thousands, cutting costs and accelerating AI development. The $17.4B deal with $Microsoft(MSFT)$ signifies their excellence. And $NBIS AVr
Got a $1M windfall? Here is how you should invest to never work again!

Buy and Hold Stocks for the Next Decade

Buy and Hold Stocks for the Next Decade 1/ $SoFi Technologies Inc.(SOFI)$ SoFi has built a One Stop Shop financial services platform that is difficult to replicate. The company’s member base has scaled rapidly, surpassing 13.6M members, driven by a flywheel of cross-selling across lending, financial services, and investing. Each incremental product deepens engagement, lowers acquisition costs, and increases lifetime value, reinforcing SoFi’s ecosystem advantage. From its growing member base, the company originated $36.4B in loans. SoFi’s financial services segment has emerged as a core growth engine, delivering triple-digit revenue growth at scale. Products such as SoFi Money, Invest, Credit Card, and Relay are driving high-margin, recurring reven
Buy and Hold Stocks for the Next Decade

Deepfakes and Synthetic Media: The New AI-Enabled Era Of Exponential Fraud

Artificial intelligence is ushering in a new era of massive online fraud. Deepfakes, AI-generated identities, and autonomous agents are overwhelming legacy cybersecurity systems. And the scale of the problem is likely on the verge of dramatically exploding. Deepfake Fraud Is Growing Exponentially Improvements in artificial intelligence models, AI agents and LLMs are the technology that underpins the rise of deepfakes. The world's largest AI research labs and publicly traded technology companies are spending tens of billions of dollars on scaling the capabilities of their models and are producing breakthroughs in generative AI at a rapid pace. This is now translating directly into deepfakes causing meaningful fraud. Between 2019-2023 in the United States alone, fraud that could be attribute
Deepfakes and Synthetic Media: The New AI-Enabled Era Of Exponential Fraud

Secondary Winners of the Innovation Cycle: $CRWD $PL $VRT $TSLA

It's the era of getting rich off "secondary winners". Here's how to profit: We hear all the sexy headlines...ai, space, robotics. But what about companies that win downstream? Stuff you don't immediately think about. Real picks & shovels. Put two & two together...it's stupid how much money will be made from companies piggybacking off of the innovation cycle over the next decade+. Here are the secondary themes I'm focused on: 1) Artificial Intelligence -> Cybersecurity. - deepfakes and synthetic media represent a threat to the largest companies in the world...everyone is at risk. Huge capital will flow here. (great article below by @thenewmoney_tnm) Top cybersecurity stocks: $CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.(CRWD)$
Secondary Winners of the Innovation Cycle: $CRWD $PL $VRT $TSLA

Practical Guide To Theme Rotation (+ a prompt)

Below you'll find some of the platforms, prompts, and pieces I use to analyze themes + relative strength. I noticed everyone was bookmarking a reply I made about finding the next *themes + strongest stocks in those themes*. So here's a guide: Step one. Find a platform or data source that analyzes theme performance, provides thematic maps, or has data of theme-specific movements. I will use @finviz_com's "Maps" tab for this example, but you can also use @thenewmoney_tnm's "Trends" tab (or others) as a backup. Step one. Click on the "Maps" tab in the nav bar. Next, click on "Themes" in the left side panel. Once on "themes", filter by 6-month, 3-month, and 1-month performance. For each, take a screenshot of the full map. So you'll have 3 screenshots at the end of this. Once you have these 3 s
Practical Guide To Theme Rotation (+ a prompt)

Seat-based SaaS is Dead! What Comes After?

Anthropic’s Claude models have created a massive sell-off is Sofware-as-a-Service businesses, as investors run away from disruption. My colleague Hazel prepared the above overview of the worst-performing stocks YTD. As you can see, it is dominated by SaaS names. $Intuit(INTU)$ is down 33% $Gartner(IT)$ is down 33% $ServiceNow(NOW)$ is down 28% $Workday(WDAY)$ is down 26% This fear is rational, as historically, SaaS monetised its services through seat-based pricing. This was a very straightforward way to monetise software. The more features were added, the more usefull software became. Each incremental feature served as a
Seat-based SaaS is Dead! What Comes After?

YTD Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks

YTD Worst Performing S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Stocks: 🔴 -37% $Gartner(IT)$ 🔴 -36% $Intuit(INTU)$ 🔴 -30% $ServiceNow(NOW)$ 🔴 -30% $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ 🔴 -29% $FactSet Research(FDS)$ 🔴 -29% $Humana(HUM)$ 🔴 -29% $PayPal(PYPL)$ 🔴 -29% $Workday(WDAY)$ 🔴 -28% $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ 🔴 -28% $Salesforce.com(CRM)$ 🔴 -26%
YTD Worst Performing S&P 500 Stocks

Which ticker is the most likely to 3x in 3 years?

Which ticker is the most likely to 3x in 3 years? A potential 3x return over the next three years is not about picking the biggest or safest company—it’s about identifying the rare intersection of structural tailwinds, operating leverage, and market mispricing. The tickers below span energy storage, space, fintech, crypto infrastructure, AI-driven data platforms, and healthcare—each with a credible bull case, but very different risk profiles. The goal is not to predict certainty, but to assess which business has the clearest path to tripling its valuation if execution, industry momentum, and capital markets align. - $Eos Energy Enterprises Inc.(EOSE)$ at $13 - $Ondas Holdings Inc.(ONDS)$ at $10 -
Which ticker is the most likely to 3x in 3 years?

How Ozempic Transformed Novo Nordisk!

Today, millions of investors and ordinary people know of $Novo-Nordisk A/S(NVO)$ because of its world-famous, highly effective, and revolutionary drug called Ozempic. When Ozempic was released in 2017, no one could have imagined it would become a global media sensation. Celebrities such as Kim Kardashian, Oprah, and Adele appeared noticeably slimmer in public after rumors that they had used Ozempic. This made Ozempic the topic of general and entertainment news, and an incredibly rare feat for a medicinal drug. Understandably, as the word spread of Ozempic’s incredible weight-loss effects to all corners of the world, the demand for the drug exploded. This free media exposure allowed Novo Nordisk to achieve incredible financial results. In just 6 yea
How Ozempic Transformed Novo Nordisk!

HIMS Takes Big Swings and Faces Volatility with Long Term Upside at 18

$Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ has some balls. Leadership taking big swings and striking out every once in awhile is not necessarily a bad thing. Big thinkers and innovators play big. Often in the gray areas...seeing that now with the $nvo lawsuit. Move fast and break things. All the hyper growth players looked reckless early on...and made stupid mistakes when trying to really lift off. $Robinhood(HOOD)$ halted trading during the $GameStop(GME)$ saga. $Uber(UBER)$ launched in cities without approval and got banned. States called $DraftKings Inc.(DKNG)$ "illegal gambling" in
HIMS Takes Big Swings and Faces Volatility with Long Term Upside at 18

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