To The Moon

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter

Trend Insights:It is still too early to turn fully bullish on U.S. equities; the main strategic focus should be on trading a potential second bottom rather than rushing to deploy all capital. The current market is shifting from a one-way rally driven by expectations of monetary easing toward a choppier regime in which investors are repricing the timing of rate cuts, the AI bubble, and credit spreads. Over the medium term, U.S. stocks still have a good chance of delivering a “Santa rally,” but near-term risks have not been cleared, and the necessary conditions for a durable reversal are only gradually falling into place, so the time for an all-out long stance has not yet arrived.December rate cut not locked inAt the moment, the probability of a December rate cut implied by Fed funds futures

Last week, after publishing a medium- to long‑term bullish view on U.S. equities in the piece titled “Government Reopening: Why It Could Ignite the Next Leg of the U.S. Stock Rally” equity indices did not immediately reverse higher, but instead remained stuck in a weak, choppy range near the lows. This time, the focus is on why U.S. equity indices are currently trapped in this kind of weak consolidation, and how retail investors should respond and hedge risk.​The global market is now in a dangerous transition characterized by a “macro data blackout + liquidity repricing,” during which index directionality is weak, but volatility pricing is prone to s

Summary:Everything is just beginning. You know, the most thoroughly stripped "naked swimmer" will always act as the first domino to be pushed down before the economic crisis, and the whole process of domino being pushed down is also a continuous accelerating process.Why do Silicon Valley banks sound the prelude to the American crisis?Although the bank is small, the problems it reflects are not simple. Let's review these two key points:1. After the bank deposit in Silicon Valley triggered a run, the bank's $42 billion deposits were withdrawn in just a few hours! When the business closed on March 9th, the deposit deficit was negative 1 billion, which directly led to Silicon Valley Bank filing for bankruptcy.​​​2. Just after Silicon Valley Bank declared bankruptcy, The Federal Reserve and the

The global market may face the baptism of a perfect storm.In the US financial market, the headwind of interest rate is blowing stronger, and the major economies in Europe and Asia have also raised their future interest rate expectations.The global bond market is falling, the yield is rising, the revaluation of US stocks will be on the verge, and the S&P index has already shown signs of head shape.Breaking all this deadlock may be the completly falling below the 200-day moving average.Big risks mean big opportunities. Under the expectation that foreign capital will start to return to the US dollar again, there will be a low buying opportunity in global stock markets. For example, Chinese real estate stocks that have been suppressed for a long time may be more turbulent,It's time fo

Important information:What we are facing now is a rather divided market.You may have been exposed to too much news about buying the dip of A shares:China's macroeconomic data has just given a series of the most eye-catching transcripts: in January, the official PMI data of manufacturing and non-manufacturing both exceeded expectations and returned to the expansion range. Last year's Q4 GDP, industrial added value and retail sales in December, and the growth rate of non-agricultural fixed investment in the whole year of last year all exceeded expectations.Even the unemployment rate in December was lower than 5.7% in November. There are really too many rising reasons for A shares, but a key question you may not have noticed is: Why did Hong Kong and chinese market fa

The last central bank in the world to insist on large-scale quantitative easing is finally surrendering, but the timing is very interesting.When the Federal Reserve made great strides to raise interest rates by 75 basis points, and when inflation in the United States kept soaring and showed no sign of peaking, the Japanese central bank withstood the pressure and always adhered to the strategy of unlimited bond purchase, supporting the upper limit of 10-year Japanese bond yield below 0.25%.BUT How did it happen at this time: after US CPI peaked, hawkish interest rate hikes were confirmed to slow down, and the US dollar finally fell from its high level, it suddenly announced that it would relax the control of yield?Have you considered another possibility: the doves' surrender of th

After Powell's speech, The US stock market suddenly broke out in an inexplicable carnival, This makes the previous bullish bettors earn a lot of money. The market seems to only believe its own expectations, but doesn't care what Powell is saying at all. This trend of treating neutral news as good is very rare, and probably can only appear at the end of the year when liquidity is not abundant.When we take stock of Powell's speech last night, we will find that compared with the beginning of November, the new information only acknowledges that the previous monetary policy has made substantial progress, but immediately turns the conversation around and says that the current slowdown policy needs more evidence to prove that inflation has peaked and demand is slowing down continuously. And reite

Today, let's talk briefly about a strange situation: someone suddenly bet on the continuous decline of the US dollar.Yes, you are not mistaken.Although the US dollar index has stabilized and rebounded around 106, a large number of traders already believe that the decline of the US dollar probably does not stop there. They seem to be betting on such a script:A bigger round of dollar selling will start at any time, and the trend of the dollar index will appear in the typical form of head and shoulder top, thus turning downward in reverse.From the latest CFTC position data, there is a rare jump in the overweight of the asset management market in the US dollar short position, which makes the short position of the asset management market reach a new high in the past two years as of last week​​​

Ouch! Maybe It's time to change your trading strategyYou should be careful. After the CPI, the US stocks went out of a rare pulse rise under the expectation of slowing interest rate hikes. The S&P level was close to 4100 points. We shared the overall trend rhythm of US stocks very early before, and it is very likely that after bottoming out, there will be a double dip around 4100 points, and the current change is likely to be after Poland was attacked.​​​Long-term resistance level is above, and the market encountered the suppression of the 200-day moving average.To our surprise, S&P futures did not turn down after the attack on Poland, but actually rose slightly to test the high of 4050 points, completing the touch of the "wall of worry" we mentioned repeatedly