$NVIDIA (NVDA)$Heading into earnings, NVIDIA's trading range has shifted to 130–150.Just two days ago, 130 was the upper limit, but now it has become the lower bound after a pullback—this is quite a drastic shift.Institutions have rolled their positions twice within a week, closing out spread positions between 130–137 and rolling into 140–145. Theoretically, there shouldn’t be any further short squeezes on Thursday or Friday. If the stock fails to break through 135, there’s a chance it will drop back to 130.After the roll, the strike price with the highest open interest for this week’s call options is 140. The stock price should stabilize between Thursday and Friday, so selling calls above 140 and selling puts below 130 could be viable strategies.
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Feeling frustrated. On Tuesday, after institutions rolled their sell call arbitrage positions due to the short squeeze, NVIDIA’s stock price continued to rise. The primary reason seems to be the potential for another short squeeze following the roll.On Tuesday, the call option open interest was as shown in the chart: for this week’s expiration, all call options between the 132 and 139 strikes were part of institutional arbitrage strategies. When large-scale call options are opened consecutively across strike prices, regardless of whether they are bought or sold, there’s a chance it could lead to another short squeeze.The outcome will likely be one of two extremes: either the stock price shoots straight up to 140, or it pulls back be
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ The Saudi order triggered a short squeeze. On Monday, the largest new open interest for this week’s expiring call options was at the 125 strike, but institutions didn’t roll their sell call positions in time. As a result, the stock price broke through the 127 hedge point and surged to 130.Based on open interest data, 130 appears to be the extreme price for this week. Institutions have rolled their sell call positions to $NVDA 20250516 132.0 CALL$ , hedging with 137 calls. I followed along to recover some losses.I must admit, Trump’s bullish comments had a surprisingly strong impact. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ SPY co
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ As expected, some traders are taking a bullish stance early.On Friday, three different expiration dates for SPY saw significant bullish call option activity at the 580 strike price:$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$ with 52,000 contracts opened,$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$ with 29,000 contracts opened,$SPY 20250512 580.0 CALL$ with 25,000 contracts opened.These large orders were executed just before market close, as identified through unusual options activity filters.Now, you might wonder: with pre-market prices already
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ A rare bullish order for Tesla appeared: a short-term bullish option, 300 call $TSLA 20250606 300.0 CALL$ , with 38,000 contracts opened, likely indicating buying activity.At the same time, the top bearish open interest was the 280 put $TSLA 20250509 280.0 PUT$ , with 8,250 contracts opened, primarily sold.Additionally, a significant number of new positions were opened for July-expiry 400–415 calls, such as $TSLA 20250718 400.0 CALL$ . This is worth monitoring.From a trend perspective, 280 has become a new support level,
For fundamentally stable stocks like NVIDIA, while bears and bulls often battle it out, most of the time the market tends to settle on a consensus for the expected trading range, maintaining both bullish and bearish views within a certain zone.However, starting last week around Labor Day, NVIDIA began showing some signals that diverged from the mainstream market sentiment. The dominant expectation in the market is that NVIDIA will fluctuate around $110 until May 16 (monthly option expiration). Yet, some bullish large orders suggest that NVIDIA may experience a move above $115 before the earnings report.Typical recent bullish large orders are mostly focused on May 23 expiration, and are all single-leg positions:Buy $NVDA 20250523
$NVIDIA(NVDA)$ From May 9 to May 12, there will be U.S.-China talks. However, the options market remains unusually calm, with very low implied volatility. Based on past experiences, the market tends to remain stable before monthly options expiration. However, after the May 16 expiration, volatility could increase.For this week, $NVDA is likely to close between $110 and $115. Bearish positions opened recently seem to support the idea of a potential drop after monthly options expiration. A significant trade combines a sell put for May 16 expiration and a buy put for May 30 expiration:Buy $NVDA 20250530 115.0 PUT$ Sell $NVD
$SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ On Wednesday, there will be a Federal Reserve FOMC meeting, which is expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 4.375%. The market anticipates a 100-basis-point rate cut before the end of the year, likely starting in July.I think there may be brief volatility post-meeting, but the most important factor in the near term remains the tariff negotiations and their outcomes.Speaking of recent volatility, we can't ignore the old saying about U.S. stocks: Sell in May and go away. However, based on the options open interest, this year's "selling in May" seems to specifically refer to options sellers.On Monday, there were two significant long-term large orders in $SPY, reflecting a bearish outlook on the broader market
$Apple(AAPL)$ The market as a whole has rebounded to pre-tariff levels. However, not all tech stocks have received the same treatment. For instance, Apple saw a significant sell order of 26,000 contracts for the June-expiring 240 call option ($AAPL 20250620 240.0 CALL$ ) on Friday.The 240 level carries some significance—it was the price level prior to the U.S. stock market crash on March 10. On that day, concerns about the health of the U.S. economy shifted investor risk preferences, and the dollar index fell to its lowest point since November of last year. $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ Microsoft's positive earnings report helped the market rebound to
$Microsoft(MSFT)$ Microsoft will release its earnings after the close on Wednesday, but the outlook isn’t very optimistic. Azure’s business is facing macroeconomic uncertainty, leading to decreased demand. Microsoft’s FY25/FY26 total revenue estimates have been revised down to $27.52 billion and $30.648 billion, respectively.However, institutions seem optimistic about Microsoft’s trend. On April 24, options activity showed 16,600 contracts of $MSFT 20250815 430.0 CALL$ were bought, with a transaction value of over $10 million.On April 29, a significant bullish call spread strategy was executed on the exchange:Buy $MSF