If inflation persists—possibly driven by tariffs—it could force yields higher. Trump’s efforts to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. will raise production costs, especially compared to China or Vietnam. In the interim, tariffs mean higher consumer prices. While inflation fell to 2.4% in March, that was before the tariffs kicked in. A reacceleration is possible. If inflation rises amid economic slowdown, we could be headed for stagflation—a toxic mix where few asset classes perform well. Bonds would suffer, and growth stocks may struggle too. This is the worst-case scenario. A selloff in Treasuries could signal that investors no longer see them as safe, given America’s debt load. U.S. Treasuries total $51 trillion—40% of the global bond market. If the U.S. faces a credit downgrade or, wor
It is tricky to forecast the USD trajectory because of its multi-faceted nature.when global economic growth is decent, USD tends to be positively correlated with the relative US growth outlook (i.e., the stronger the relative growth, the stronger the greenback). A contractionary economic environment, however, would see the USD having a negative correlation with growth, meaning the currency becomes a safe haven.The softer US growth backdrop has been consistent with the USD weakness observed as of late, and a lot of that has been priced in, Since the announcement, President Trump has come out and opened the door for negotiations on tariffs, which may suggest that the announced weighted average tariff of 18% may be at the high end of the range and the 10% floor at the bottom of the range
In a sluggish growth and sticky inflation scenario bonds still won’t shine, and while some strong businesses may still grow, many others could struggle under slow demand and higher costs. The key point is that positioning needs to happen before the scenario unfolds. Markets are forward-looking—stocks often crash before a recession is official, and bond prices rally early as investors move to safety. By the time the news confirms a recession, bonds have likely already risen, and that might actually be the time to start looking at stocks again. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently described tariff-driven inflation as ‘transitory’. That word set off alarms across the investing world. After all, Powell used the same term during the post-COVID inflation surge—only for inflation to persist far longe
For the longest time, U.S. stocks have led the global markets, and no group has felt this more acutely than China stock investors since 2021, as China stocks have severely underperformed U.S. stocks. But that’s changing—at least in 2025 so far, the tide has turned. The MSCI China Index has gained 18.7%, while the S&P 500 is down 4.6%. The key question now: Can this China stock outperformance last? History has shown that China stocks can surge rapidly, only to experience sharp declines. And with the U.S. stock market still the global leader, any major shock in the U.S. is likely to ripple across world markets, including China. we believe that there is a real chance that China stocks could continue to perform well, even if U.S. stocks struggle. Shifting market cycles, valuation re-rating
Seatrium also has shipyard assets in Texas, USA and could see some order wins from the US’s push to move some manufacturing back into the country, despite the investment required and its complexities. Seatrium has a proven track record, having previously delivered a Jones-act compliant Wind Turbine Installation Vessel. The Jones Act requires that all vessels transporting goods within the United States must be USA-documented, owned, crewed, and built, making Seatrium’s experience highly valuable. With its latest results, Seatrium has now shown that it can deliver on all 4 of its key priorities and deliver value to its long-suffering shareholders. We have voiced our concerns multiple times about the long-term nature of Seatrium’s projects, which subject investors to tail-end risks. This is t
Since 2010, Hangzhou’s population has surged from 8.7 million to 12.5 million in 2023, driven by its booming tech sector and reputation for high living standards. While many Chinese developers are struggling to sell units, Hangzhou’s robust local economy helps sustain housing demand, making it one of the more resilient property markets in China. Against this backdrop, Binjiang Service Group has thrived by providing essential property management and value-added services. With DeepSeek’s rapid rise, Hangzhou could see an even greater influx of talent, further strengthening the demand for housing and premium property services. Binjiang is well-positioned to benefit from this ongoing tech boom—not just as a property manager, but as a company deeply embedded in Hangzhou’s economic ecosystem. Wh
Will AI model take into communites stock ? This is where OpenAI and Microsoft have raised concerns, alleging that DeepSeek might have used ChatGPT to train its model. OpenAI has spent billions scraping the internet to train its model, despite facing ongoing copyright disputes. For DeepSeek, replicating this approach would be both inefficient and constrained by limited GPU availability and financial resources. Instead, it leveraged distillation to train its model. If distillation becomes widespread, building AI models will become significantly easier. Developers can now train new models using multiple existing AIs, each excelling in different areas. This is precisely what DeepSeek did—it distilled knowledge from Meta’s open-source Llama model and Alibaba’s Qianwen. Furthermore, it incorpora