To The Moon

Latest SpaceX is looking to IPO this year and it is shaping up to be the largest IPO in history. Reports suggest a valuation of up to $1.75 trillion—eclipsing even Saudi Aramco’s record debut in 2019. The company could raise as much as $75 billion in the process. Naturally, investors are scrambling for exposure. But since SpaceX is still private, you can’t just buy the stock. So the next best thing? SpaceX proxies—stocks, ETFs, and funds that have a stake in SpaceX or are in business with the company. Besides SpaceX, Other like DXYZ stock also holds other marquee names like Databricks, xAI, Revolut, and OpenAI. So if you want broader exposure to high-growth private ventures beyond just SpaceX, this may interest you. This means investors are paying significantly more to own the underlying p

Now, China has its own oil majors, just like the Americans. But we’d argue the Chinese names offer a better value proposition for investors. Why? Higher dividend yields. Oil prices have stayed elevated since the Iran War started. And for upstream oil & gas companies, this is great news — the oil they pump out of the ground is suddenly worth a lot more. Sell at higher prices, profit margins widen. Simple. But it’s less fortunate for downstream players — refineries and petrol retailers — because their cost of fuel has gone up. So no, it’s not the entire oil and gas industry that benefits from high oil prices. The distinction matters. Take ExxonMobil. The dividend yield is just 2.4%. And after a 30% dividend withholding tax, investors are left with roughly 1.7%. Compare that to China’s oi

The war has cut off access to about 20% of the world’s crude oil and another 20% of the liquefied natural gas, or LNG, that normally traverses the Strait of Hormuz that connects the Persian Gulf with the rest of the world. Oil prices are up about 50% since the war began.The market is starting to price in oil staying higher for longer. Three-month Brent crude futures rose 2% to US$100.79 a barrel. That would be the highest close since the war began—and only the second close above US $100 during the conflict. Though the market had anticipated rates being kept steady, the major indexes fell as Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed uncertainty surrounding the central bank’s median forecast of one interest rate cut for 2026. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Monday this week said the central b

Both the US and Iran are far from alignment on the terms of a ceasefire. And neither side seems willing to budge. So it’s hard to see how negotiations can succeed. If a ceasefire doesn’t happen, that means the US would have to press on with attacks—and potentially send troops on the ground to eliminate the regime. The market wouldn’t like that. It could be a repeat nightmare of Iraq and Afghanistan, where the invasion took far longer and cost many times more than initially envisaged. The US is already not in the strongest fiscal position. Spending billions more on a prolonged war would only increase debt further. Plus, elevated oil prices have persisted for a month and look set to stay longer. The fear of inflation is creeping back. the Magnificent 7 have lost $5.6 trillion in market cap f

The latest US-Iranian conflict, tech stock sell-off (Nasdaq down 5% year to date) and now the Fed is putting interest rates on hold. Even Singapore REITs supposedly on track to recover are now facing pressure. This fear continues as the Iran war faces uncertainty around a resolution. And it leaves people with much confusion  Even the Fear & Greed Index is now ~16, pushing stock prices lower. That’s the kind of fear reading you expect to see during a market correction. I wouldn’t know where the stock market is heading over the next week, next month, or the next year. It’s hard to tell. But here's what I know: The average market loss during a correction is ~13%. Yet that loss recovered over a four month period. In fact, following the last 15 corrections going back to 2008, the S&

Trump says Iran’s military ‘decimated’. And yet, we still see Iran launching missiles and drones hitting the region. It clearly still has the ability to shut the Strait of Hormuz effectively. The US doesn’t want to strike Iran’s oil facilities due to fears of escalating oil prices further — but Israel went ahead and struck Iran’s South Pars gas field. Iran retaliated by firing at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, causing some damage. That sent oil prices above $100 and share prices down again. Then the latest development: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel acted alone on the bombing, and Trump has asked Israel not to carry out further attacks on oil facilities. This moderated oil prices — for now. The last time the S&P 500 broke below the 200DMA was during Trump’s uni

Put it this way, high dividend yield must be accompanied by high quality businesses with a durable competitive advantage. When I look at dividend stocks as a Singapore investor, I often compare businesses that pay dividends that are well secured by a consistent free cash flow. For example, what’s different is dividend growers like Sheng Siong produce free cash flow and pay dividends within its reasonable range.  Despite market cycles, this supermarket giant continues to grow its dividends and earnings year after year. In fact, it’s now earning close to S$150 million in a single year. However, given the intense competition, it’s hard to say whether a high dividend yield is still secured by free cash flow. It’s even harder to beat inflation if a company’s dividends are affected by inten

The thing is, dividends have a powerful psychological effect on investors. When a company pays steady dividends, it creates a sticky shareholder base. This is what I call a “Shareholders’ Effect”. This means shareholders who own dividend stocks are less likely to sell their shares and hurt stock prices. The big problem comes when dividends get cut, it loses this shareholders’ effect quickly.  Here’s the other thing. The telco business is a capital intensive business. Companies must constantly invest in network infrastructure and bid for spectrum licenses like 5G. You see, spectrum auctions used to be very expensive in the 1990s. That has since dropped over the years. This has forced Starhub to be a price taker. Think about it: what’s stopping you from switching to another cheaper telc

Israel and Jordan extract massive amounts of potash from the mineral-rich waters of the Dead Sea. Together, they account for roughly 6% to 8% of global supply. A regional war directly threatens these operations—and their ability to export. But here’s the bigger picture: the global potash market was already fragile. Russia and Belarus, which historically supply about 35% to 40% of the world’s potash, have been heavily sanctioned. When the market loses access to Eastern European potash  , and Middle Eastern potash is threatened by war and blocked shipping lanes, the world turns to the single safest, largest reserve of potash on Earth—Saskatchewan, Canada. Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, and Israel contribute roughly 12% to 13% of the world’s total physical phosphate rock. If shipping lanes

We must always bear in mind that the market always prices in the future performance of the company. Going back in time, this means that at the IPO stage, investors already expected Chagee to do whatever it is you are seeing today (new store, new drinks, long queues). The reason why we see the stock is going down, is simply because the market thinks that Chagee will not be able to keep up with its competitors and that eventually, their growth may slow. In other words, they already won investors with a certain set of guidance but they weren’t able to WOW them after they bring them in. Chagee stores keep opening in Singapore and the waiting time for their beverage products keep going up but their stock price is only going one-way and that’s down. Warren Buffet said to invest in what you know;