To The Moon

A big autonomy win has pushed Mobileye higher, but an acquisition added questions about management's priorities.Mobileye’s U.S. Automaker WinI think the most consequential announcement this week was Mobileye announcing a second design win with “a US-based automaker”. Here’s the meat of the announcement. Mobileye today announced that a US-based automaker has chosen the Mobileye EyeQ™6H to power future advanced driver assistance systems with hands-free driving on select highways across millions of vehicles worldwide. This deal reflects accelerating demand for Mobileye Surround ADAS™ systems globally, and Mobileye now estimates future delivery of more than 19 million EyeQ6H-based Surround systems, including 9 million from the new automaker announced today in addition to programs by Volkswagen

If I worked in healthcare, I would do 2 things:1. Buy disruptive stocks like $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ as a hedge2. Figure out how I'm different/better than an AIIf you're not differentiated from what someone can get on ChatGPT today, you have no future in healthcare.That's the reality.THE MEDICAL INDUSTRY IS BEING DISRUPTEDIn the U.S. alone, healthcare is a $5 trillion industry.AI has the opportunity to rapidly:1. Improve access2. Incorporate more/better data3. Improve efficacy of treatments4. Lower costs dramaticallyWe all have stories of wasted time and money, poor diagnosis, and waste in the system.What if all of your healthcare data -- weight readings from a smart scale, heart rate from a watch, oxygen levels, and more -- lived in a

It’s 2026, so it’s time to have some fun with expectations for the year.Most predictions I’ve seen a pretty boring, like “stocks will go up ~9%” or “ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ will outperform.”I think this is going to be a crazier year than most in the market think. We’re in the calm before the storm.Expect the unexpected!#1: OpenAI Will “Collapse”This may sound provocative at first, but I don’t think it’s all that far-fetched.The Information reported in September that OpenAI expects to burn $131 billion through 2029 and then magically become profitable.There’s just one problem with that plan…Google $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ !Google has clearly gained momentum

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake.1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale.2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1.3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand.You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs

The entire "AI Trade" is a confidence game. $Oracle(ORCL)$ $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ If the market has confidence that spending will increase and stocks will go up, companies will be able to raise money to spend on capex and stocks will go up.But if the market loses confidence and stocks drop (like they have) confidence is broken and it can be a downward spiral because NONE of these neoclouds has a sustainable business model today. (Hyperscalers are a different story) For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading

Stocks with a P/E multiple under 15x and a 3 year revenue CAGR of 5% or more. $Uber(UBER)$ $Progressive(PGR)$ $Newmont Mining(NEM)$ $Elevance Health(ELV)$ $THE CIGNA GROUP(CI)$ $Travelers(TRV)$ $PayPal(PYPL)$ $Ford(F)$ $Allstate(ALL)$ $ONEOK Inc(OKE)$ $Ameriprise(AMP)$ $Vici Properties(VICI)$

Where do you look for investment ideas?Or better yet, where do you NOT look for investment ideas?This is something I think a lot about and have developed some loose frameworks over the years.There are no hard and fast rules when it comes to investing, and I’ve broken every rule I talk about below, but I think it’s important to understand your goals as an investor and how you’re going to find the stocks that allow you to meet those goals.If I were looking for a steady 8% rate of return, industrials and energy may be a pond to fish in.But I’m looking for 10x stocks over the next 10 years.I want companies (and founders) that take big swings and get big outcomes.Those opportunities aren’t found just anywhere, and eliminating huge swaths of the market helps refine where I do look for ideas. Hop

I've seen three technology revolutions in my life that made a 10x impact on the world.1. The PC in the 1980s brought digital tools into the home. Pen and paper -> PC was easily a 10x improvement.2. The internet in the late 90s/early 2000s made finding information trivial. I grew up with encyclopedias and a library card and suddenly 100x more information than they held could be discovered in minutes (dial-up was slow).3. Smartphones moved the internet from the PC to your pocket. Now, the world's information was accessible 24/7 with virtually no friction.This is why I struggle with AI.What's the 10x improvement? Creating videos of my kids with Disney characters is cool, but it's not a 10x change in my life. Changing a calendar event with my voice in the car (

Vertically integrating with <50,000 units of demand is the biggest mistake $Rivian Automotive, Inc.(RIVN)$ can make.They're operating like $Apple(AAPL)$ in 2010 when the A4 chip launched. But Apple was selling 47 million iPhones/year by then. Rivian's autonomy day would have been impressive in 2022. Today, it's the wrong business model (vertically integrated) in a competitive market with modular suppliers offering a scalable solution to competitors with manufacturing scale.Rivian is STILL only making ~50k vehicles per year. It won't get over 215k in production for AT LEAST another three years.By then, millions of vehicles will have L4 autonomy. It's too late! Business. Models. Matter.Hasn't

The big news late last week was $Netflix(NFLX)$ agreeing to buy $Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)$ studios and streaming assets. The cable networks will go into their own publicly traded zombie companies, but the good assets are going to Netflix — assuming regulatory approval.It’s pretty clear why Netflix wants these assets, and I don’t think it’s for the reason most pundits think. If you look at the Smiling Curve and where companies want to be, Netflix has already won in the top right.What it’s worried about is this middle section. Netflix is worried that Paramount, WBD, and Peacock will merge, creating another competitor that’s worth caring about.As it stands right now, $