To The Moon

Memory prices are worth following. The clear trend is that the parabolic rise in prices ended in April/May for most of memory. Possible Q3 revenue is down sequentially for memory-makers. (depending on how much of sales is spot) The biggest risk in the market right now is multiple compression. Any blip in revenue growth or margins and these multiples can come down really fast. There's trillions in value riding on hyperscaler capex growing for the foreseeable future... $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ $Broadcom(AVGO)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

$Netflix(NFLX)$ has lost momentum, and here's an opportunity to get it back. Netflix has seemingly won the streaming battle…or has it? The company is in the #2 position behind $Alphabet(GOOG)$ ( ▲ 2.45% ) YouTube and has lost share since 2023, when it had 8% of TV time. Pull in total TV viewing, and Netflix falls to fifth place, even before Fox acquires Roku. So, why is this moment a golden opportunity for Netflix? I’ll get to that in a moment. Why Netflix Has an Opportunity Today OK, so I called this Netflix’s big moment. Why? Because the competition is distracted. The companies Netflix should fear most in streaming have priorities elsewhere. Let’s go through them one by one. YouTube (Alphabet) Alphabet

There was no press release or fanfare, but last week was more consequential to the future of autonomous driving than any week in recent memory. Waymo and $Uber(UBER)$ broke up. They’re still working together in Austin and Atlanta, but there’s now a clear business model split between the two. In a lot of ways, clarity is important. Waymo has a clearer path forward as it scales the business around the U.S. and globally. Uber knows it can’t rely on Waymo either, but it also puts pressure on the partners Uber is betting on. With new technologies, getting the business model right is more important than getting the technology right, so this moment is crucial. As an owner of both stocks, I’m not surprised by the move and happy to see the shift. I think i

If it feels like the market is moving faster than ever, it is! Information moves faster, but so do companies. AI was a pipedream five years ago, and now it’s driving trillions of dollars in value. If you’re looking for the next hot thing, faster markets can be a great thing. But as a long-term investor, it can bring confusion to decision-making. In these digital pages, I try to explain how I’m investing with a long-term focus using strategy and financial results, but sometimes that doesn’t translate to the performance I aim for because hype and short-term dynamics win the day. Today, I want to show how the speed of the market has changed over the past century and why keeping our heads is more important than ever. Everything Happens Faster Yes, the market is moving faster than ever, but put

There’s a fine line between charging a premium because you can and acting like a mobster to your customers. $Apple(AAPL)$ can charge a premium because people value their products more highly than competitors. On Shoes can charge a premium because it has a premium shoe brand among dozens of other choices. $Ferrari NV(RACE)$ can charge whatever it wants because…it’s Ferrari. That’s pricing power. The POWER is in the consumer’s CHOICE to pay more. Then there’s extortion pricing. Extortion is about power, but it’s about POWER over a customer that has NO CHOICE. Extortion is the crime of obtaining money, property, or services through coercion, threats, or the misuse of official power. Google This is impor

I didn't understand $Netflix(NFLX)$ 10 years ago, but I learned lessons from that mistake. 1. Users > Profits: In a digital business, it's critical to reach scale. Profits don't matter on the path to scale. 2. Delay Taking Price: Margins are low? Who cares! See #1. 3. Suppliers eventually have to bend the knee to the one who owns demand. You don't say, "I'm going to watch Sony's K-Pop tonight." You say, "I'm going to watch Netflix." Demand matters above all else. Owning the customer is the ultimate goal. The companies we CHOOSE to interact with are the ultimate winners on the market. When you see a person/group very bullish on a stock, it's easy to brush it off as a "meme" or "crazy". It's more profitable to ask yourself why they might be right

Why Everything In the Market Just Changed Debt will fuel the next phase of the market, for better or worse. The AI buildout has been driving the market in incredible ways over the past three years. Memory has exploded, fabs are going vertical, and equipment-makers are on a massive hot streak. S&P 500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ heat map over the past year. What’s unique about this moment is the scale of the value the market has put on all things AI. 45% of the S&P 500’s value is in AI-related stocks. And those stocks aren’t cheap. Over half of the S&P 500 trades for over 10x sales. This is something I’ve been concerned about for a while, but it’s taken a turn recently. Why? Debt at an unprecedented scale is now involved. More on that in a mom

$Mobileye Global Inc.(MBLY)$ ’s Gambit Mobileye is going to own robotaxis, which is a big risk. Mobileye made one of the most surprising announcements in the market this week. Instead of waiting for customers to adopt its Level 4 robotaxi software and hardware solutions — continuing the modular business model it’s been using for years — Mobileye is making its own robotaxi vehicle and ride-sharing app. Mobileye isn’t abandoning its old business model, but it is bolting on a high-risk vertical integration model. Upon further review, this makes a lot of sense, even if it’s not being done from a point of strength. Mobileye’s current business model is selling autonomy hardware and software to automakers, which is ultimately reliant on OEMs for demand.

When $Hims & Hers Health Inc.(HIMS)$ stock dropped to under $15 early this year the company was reviled for being untrustworthy and a one-trick pony in compounded GLP-1s. Those times of panic were an opportunity for long-term investors to understand the strategy and why AndrewDudum would do seemingly crazy things that upset Big Pharma. That’s what the two articles I wrote in those moments explained. But few went through the exercise of understanding Hims strategy or what the potential outcomes of a patent lawsuit really was. For those of you who read Asymmetric Investing in those brutal months and stayed invested or doubled down (like I did in the Asymmetric Portfolio) its days like this that show why research and conviction matter. Drowning o

The Week Ahead Here’s what I’m watching. The market has been in a strange place the past few weeks. Stocks seem to rise or fall rapidly depending on posts about negotiations with Iran, a fight that didn’t need to happen and has had little impact on the global economy, despite fears to the contrary. AI spending keeps rising, despite companies saying they aren’t seeing an ROI. And with all of my skepticism about certain segments of the market, earnings have been solid. So, here’s what I’m watching this week: Iran Peace Rate Cut Hope AI in Politics Valuations More on that in a moment. What I’m Watching It’s a light earnings week, so here’s what I’m watching most closely. Iran Peace Deal Markets are surging this morning after President Trump announced a deal with Iran that would open the Strai