AfraSimon

    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·10:00

      $IREN’s Cash Puzzle Is Really About Timing, Not Demand

      A few thoughts about $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ cash situation: $IREN finally received that pre-payment from $Microsoft(MSFT)$ around $1.8B. While this is good, it came much later than I would have expected, as the contract with $MSFT was signed in November 2025, so they got the money 2 quarters later. $NBIS signed their deal with $MSFT in September and got the first payments already next quarter. They were able to scale faster because they are using a colocation partner whose facility was further along in construction when the contract was signed than $IREN. This is the advantage of the $NBIS model, they are scaling faster. However, they have to pay more for it, as the colocation partner has a margin, while $IREN
      25Comment
      Report
      $IREN’s Cash Puzzle Is Really About Timing, Not Demand
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·09:57

      $TTWO Could GTA 6 Be Underpriced by Wall Street?

      There’s a pretty interesting debate around $Take-Two(TTWO)$ right now. The argument is simple: Wall Street may be modeling GTA 6 as a big game launch, while the market could be underestimating what happens if it becomes a once-in-a-generation hit. 🚀 Take-Two is currently guiding to $8.0B–$8.2B in FY2027 net bookings, with GTA VI scheduled for November 19, 2026. But the bullish case goes much further. 💰 GTA 6 could reset the revenue curve GTA V became one of the most successful entertainment products ever released, generating more than $1B in its first three days and continuing to monetize through GTA Online for years. The bull case for GTA VI is that Rockstar doesn't simply repeat that formula. The new game is launching after a 13-year gap, with a
      2Comment
      Report
      $TTWO Could GTA 6 Be Underpriced by Wall Street?
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·09:55

      $NBIS Outpaces $IREN as AI Cloud Execution Widens the Gap

      Hey everyone 👋 $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ and $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ started the year in very different places. While $IREN is down about 5% YTD, $NBIS has surged 143%. So what explains the huge performance gap? A few factors stand out. 👇 1️⃣ $NBIS has less Bitcoin exposure $IREN is still exposed to Bitcoin mining economics. With Bitcoin prices under pressure, mining revenue is taking a hit. At the same time, the company is retiring mining equipment and recording significant impairments. $NBIS doesn't have the same drag. 2️⃣ AI cloud revenue is accelerating This is probably the biggest difference. $IREN generated about $71M in AI revenue, compared with roughly $582M for $NBIS. Investors are rewarding $NBIS for turning its
      11Comment
      Report
      $NBIS Outpaces $IREN as AI Cloud Execution Widens the Gap
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-28 09:39

      Wall Street Raises the Bar After Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings

      Wall Street is wasting no time repricing $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ after Nvidia’s latest earnings report. The reaction has been remarkably consistent. Nvidia not only beat expectations, but also delivered a stronger outlook, reinforcing the view that AI infrastructure demand remains well ahead of available supply. Nvidia shares jumped 8.7% after the report. And now the price targets are moving higher across the board. 📈 Morgan Stanley: $288 → $300Bernstein: $315 → $400RBC Capital: $300 → $330Rosenblatt: $325 → $390Oppenheimer: $265 → $315Needham: $270 → $300Stifel: $282 → $315J.P. Morgan: $280 → $320Truist: $307 → $346Citi: $300 → $315UBS: $280 → $300 The broader message is clear. Analysts are becoming more confident that Nvidia’s growth runway extends well
      127Comment
      Report
      Wall Street Raises the Bar After Nvidia’s Blowout Earnings
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-27 15:48

      New Traders Need Rules, Not Intuition

      For newer traders.(everyone else can skip) ps - read to the end for my bowling analogy…pretty proud of it. One thing that helped me a ton early on was standardizing everything…way more than the typical “rules” that you hear online. The goal (as a newer trader) is to make the smallest amount of “gut feeling” decisions as possible because you haven’t built up the intuition muscle. You have no reliable gut feelings…gotta earn those. Your trading should have ZERO ifs, ands, or buts. I’ll give you some *very broad examples* but make it up for yourself and your style/personality. Example standards: > position size: 10% of port (no exceptions) > stoploss: 5% below entry > profit target: place a 10% trailing stop after stock passes your breakeven level and just let runners run > vehicl
      160Comment
      Report
      New Traders Need Rules, Not Intuition
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-27 15:45

      Why Isn’t $APP a Buy Yet?

      Why is $AppLovin Corporation(APP)$ not a buy? That’s the question worth asking after looking at the numbers. 🔥 1. The business is unusually efficient How many companies can combine high growth, an asset-light model and roughly 77% operating margins? AppLovin has built exactly that kind of business around its advertising technology. The key isn’t simply selling ads. It’s using AI to decide which ad to show, to whom, and at what price — and getting better as more data flows through the system. 🌍 2. The market opportunity is still enormous The global mobile advertising market could exceed $1 trillion over the next decade. And mobile gaming is only one piece of the opportunity. As e-commerce moves further onto mobile, the value of advertising inside ap
      739Comment
      Report
      Why Isn’t $APP a Buy Yet?
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-26

      $NVDA Earnings: The Biggest AI Test of the Year

      🚨 Wednesday Could Be the Most Important Day of Earnings Season All eyes are on Jensen Huang, the “King of AI” 👑 — and CEO of $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ . Nvidia’s earnings report could become a major catalyst for the entire AI trade. With expectations this high, the market may react violently to even a small deviation from consensus. 🔥 Wall Street’s Expectations Analysts are looking for: 💰 Revenue: $92B — +97% YoY 📈 Adjusted EBITDA: $62B — +113% ⚙️ EBIT: $61B — +114% 💵 Net Income: $50.6B — +113% 🚀 Free Cash Flow: $47B — +249% These aren't ordinary earnings expectations. They're effectively asking Nvidia to nearly double revenue while more than doubling profits and operating cash flow. ⚠️ The Market Reaction Could Be Binary ❌ Miss expectations: AI stocks could
      257Comment
      Report
      $NVDA Earnings: The Biggest AI Test of the Year
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-25

      Why $IREN Has Lagged $NBIS

      $IREN Ltd(IREN)$ reports earnings Thursday, and expectations are high for the company to finally deliver on its AI infrastructure story. Yet the stock has been basically flat YTD, while $NEBIUS(NBIS)$ has surged 162%. I see six major reasons behind the gap. 1️⃣ Management Compensation The two co-CEOs received 18.2M shares, roughly 6% of the company, without capacity, ARR, EBITDA or share-price targets attached. Whatever the long-term merits, the optics were terrible. It created a major governance and PR overhang and made management look less disciplined to potential investors and partners. 2️⃣ The $6B ATM $IREN has a $6B ATM program, creating ongoing dilution concerns. $NBIS also has a $6B ATM and has use
      621Comment
      Report
      Why $IREN Has Lagged $NBIS
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-25

      $NVDA Is Building Its Own AI Ecosystem

      $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is doing more than selling GPUs. It appears to be building an alternative AI ecosystem that reduces its dependence on hyperscalers. The problem is straightforward. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ are huge customers, but they also want to reduce their dependence on $NVDA and gain more bargaining power over GPU pricing. That explains $NVDA’s growing investments in $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $IREN Ltd(IREN)$
      260Comment
      Report
      $NVDA Is Building Its Own AI Ecosystem
    • AfraSimonAfraSimon
      ·08-24

      Crypto’s Next Leg? Watch the Lagging Miners: $RIOT & $HUT 🚀

      👋 Ok folks, here’s a small crypto thesis. Crypto rallies often follow a familiar sequence: $BTC + $ETH → $Robinhood(HOOD)$ + $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$$Strategy(MSTR)$ + $Hyperliquid Strategies Inc(PURR)$ → miners Last week, 3 of the 4 groups ripped higher. The miners, however, largely haven’t participated yet. That’s what makes $Riot Platforms(RIOT)$ and $Hut 8 Mining Corp(HUT)$ interesting. ⛏️ Both are showing unusually strong volume, while their exposure now extends beyond Bitcoin mining into data-center infrastructure—gi
      340Comment
      Report
      Crypto’s Next Leg? Watch the Lagging Miners: $RIOT & $HUT 🚀
     
     
     
     

    Most Discussed