$Nvidia (NVDA)$ not breaking down through 870 is one thing, but actually breaking down is another matter. Tuesday's open failing to hold triggered a mini downward chain reaction, with NVDA's decision level reaching 850. The safest put selling level ahead of April 19th over the next two weeks has shifted to 800. The recent sideways trading has also impacted longer-dated option positioning - some June/July far-dated calls, especially those with strikes above 1100, have seen closing sales or new sell openings. As for the $200 million guy's 880 calls, as long as the stock price reaches above 1024 by June 21st, he can break even.
Current put option open interest over 10,000 contracts ranked:
$NVDA 20240419 800.0 PUT$ Excluding the 2025 expiry put, if NVDA drops below 850, there will be significant strike pressure this weekend and next. A drop below 850 could quickly push the stock towards 800, with the potential for a minor squeeze on this leg down. I expect the stock to hold above 850 this week, but 800 is the safety net price.
Not going to analyze the call side much, the 900 and 1000 strikes have the most open interest but are largely dead money at this point.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ as per usual has no obvious strike clustering. However, after the overnight surge, new put openings significantly outpaced calls. But overall open put/call ratio for this week's expiry is 1. The overall tone feels more seller-driven though, with more activity in selling calls and puts. This aligns with the current market sentiment - expectations that TSLA doesn't rally much further short-term but also doesn't drop significantly. I'm still holding my $TSLA 20240426 150.0 PUT$ sold puts heading into next week when premium will be mostly eroded.
$Reddit (RDDT)$ The $RDDT 20240419 55.0 CALL$ saw a modest increase in volume, but likely insufficient to trigger a squeeze so not worth participating.
The market remains in a tight range overall. The $iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN(VXX)$ has seen a lot of weekly call debit spreads like buy 15 sell 20 or buy 13.5 sell 15 strikes. When VXX activity shifts to selling calls, that's when the range is likely to break.
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$昨日，人们感觉方向不明朗，出现了两条主要交易路径：要么押注英伟达在未来两周内不会跌至800点，要么押注英伟达将跌至800点。我对前者的想法是打赌本周不会跌破850，下周不会突破800。因为825是支撑位，750是另一个支撑位。然后，未来两周到期的卖出看跌期权有三种执行价格选择：850、800、750——你可以选择适合你风险偏好的价格。
与此形成鲜明对比的第二种交易方式是押注股价在未来两周内滑向800点，这也产生了几种策略，比如三种：买入看跌期权、卖出看跌期权或卖出看涨期权。在这里，买入看跌期权意味着直接买入800执行看跌期权。卖出看跌期权交易包括等待股票下跌800点左右再卖出看跌期权。卖出看涨期权是卖出950上方的看涨期权，尽管950卖出——看涨期权交易员最近平仓——但950仍然是一个上方阻力位。如果该股在未来两周挑战850点，卖出看涨期权期权并没有错，但最好再加上一些长期看涨期权保护。
Ok