To The Moon

$Visa(V)$ is scheduled to report its fiscal second quarter 2025 financial results (for the quarter ending 31 March 2025) today, Tuesday, 29 April 2025, after the market closes.

Earnings Per Share (EPS): The consensus forecast among analysts is around $2.66 to $2.68 per share. This would be an increase of about 6.8% compared to the $2.51 reported in the same quarter last year (Q2 2024).

Revenue: Analysts expect revenue to be around $9.55 billion, which would represent an increase of approximately 9% year-over-year.

Visa (V) Last Positive Earnings Call Saw Share Price Declined Slightly By 1.45%

Visa had a positive earnings call on 30 Jan 2025 but the share price have declined by 1.45% since.

Visa's earnings call highlighted strong financial performance with significant growth in net revenue, cross-border volumes, and Visa Direct transactions. Successful renewals and expansions of international partnerships also contributed positively. However, challenges remain in the Asia-Pacific region with muted growth and potential impacts from a strong dollar on cross-border transactions. Overall, the highlights significantly outweigh the lowlights.

Visa (V) Guidance

During Visa's fiscal first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance with several key metrics indicating strong performance and growth. Net revenue reached $9.5 billion, up 10% year-over-year, while EPS increased by 14%. Payments volume grew by 9% in constant dollars, with US payments volume rising 7% and international payments volume up 11%. Cross-border volume, excluding Intra-Europe, rose by 16% in constant dollars, and processed transactions increased 11% year-over-year. The company also highlighted significant growth in digital payments, with 60% of volume from digital channels in CEMEA and Latin America. Visa Direct facilitated nearly 3 billion transactions this quarter, contributing to new flows revenue growth of 19% year-over-year in constant dollars.

Additionally, value-added services revenue grew by 18% in constant dollars, driven by consulting, marketing services, and risk solutions. Visa's strategic initiatives, including expanding Visa Direct partnerships and enhancing value-added services, are expected to continue driving growth, with adjusted EPS growth projected in the low teens for the full year.

Key Factors to Consider For Visa (V) Fiscal Q2 2025 Earnings

Past Performance: Visa has a strong history of exceeding analysts' earnings estimates, having done so for the past nine consecutive quarters.

Visa reported $9.5 billion in net revenue, up 10% year-over-year, and an EPS increase of 14%. Processed transactions grew by 11% year-over-year.

Payment Volume Growth

Consumer Spending: Dependent on macroeconomic conditions (e.g., GDP growth, unemployment, inflation). A stable or growing economy typically boosts transaction volumes.

Visa now has 4.7 billion credentials, up 7% year-over-year, and 12.6 billion tokens, up 44% year-over-year.

Cross-Border Transactions: Recovery in global travel and trade post-pandemic, geopolitical stability, and foreign exchange rates (a weaker USD could enhance international revenue).

Cross-border volume excluding Intra-Europe rose 16% in constant dollars, demonstrating a strong recovery in international transactions.

Digital Payment Trends

Continued shift from cash to digital payments, especially in emerging markets.

Adoption of Visa’s innovations (e.g., Visa Direct for real-time payments, B2B solutions, and fintech partnerships).

Regulatory Environment

Interchange fee regulations or antitrust scrutiny in key markets (U.S., EU) could impact revenue.

Compliance costs related to data security and financial regulations.

Competitive Landscape

Competition from alternative payment networks (Mastercard, Amex), fintechs (PayPal, Stripe), and blockchain/crypto solutions.

Visa renewed and expanded partnerships with major banks across China, India, New Zealand, and Latin America, securing long-term agreements and expanding market presence.

Operational Efficiency

Visa’s ability to manage operating expenses while investing in technology and cybersecurity.

Visa Direct transactions crossed 10 billion over the last 12 months, with nearly 3 billion transactions this quarter, reflecting a 34% year-over-year growth.

Revenue from value-added services grew 18% in constant dollars, driven by strong growth in consulting and marketing services, issuing solutions, and risk and identity solutions.

Macroeconomic Risks

Recessionary pressures, inflation, or interest rate hikes could reduce discretionary spending.Payments volume growth in Asia-Pacific saw slight improvement but remained relatively mute with just above 1% year-over-year growth reflecting a still somewhat muted macroeconomic environment.

Currency volatility affecting international revenue conversion to USD. The strong dollar is affecting cross-border spending patterns, potentially leading to decreased inbound travel to the US and impacting consumer spending behavior.

Visa (V) Price Target

Based on 38 analysts from Tiger Brokers app offering 12 month price targets for Visa in the last 3 months. The average price target is $377.04 with a high forecast of $410.00 and a low forecast of $291.22. The average price target represents a 11.71% change from the last price of $335.17.

Overall, analysts maintain a "Strong Buy" consensus rating on Visa stock ahead of the earnings release. Some analysts anticipate that the results will meet or slightly beat expectations. Visa's stock has seen gains year-to-date, supported by previous strong earnings and growth in digital and cross-border payments.

Technical Analysis - Exponential Moving Average (EMA)

If we looked at how Visa have recovered from the downside last week, we can see that Visa is now trading sideway while waiting for its earning result tomorrow. RSI is not showing much improvement in the momentum.

Investors might be watching to see if Visa can really beat the earnings estimates by a larger margins though some analysts anticipate that the results will meet or slightly beat expectations.

Visa would be able to provide a bullish situation if global economic conditions remain favorable, cross-border travel continues to recover, and digital payment adoption accelerates, Visa could report strong revenue and earnings growth, leveraging its vast network and brand strength.

But the recent concerns of economic downturns, regulatory crackdowns, or disruptive competition could pressure margins and volumes, and make another bearish downside which Visa experienced in early April 2025.

Summary

Visa, as a dominant player in global payment infrastructure, is well-positioned to benefit from long-term digital payment trends. However, its fiscal Q2 2025 performance will hinge on the macroeconomic climate, regulatory developments, and execution of strategic initiatives. I

As investors I think we need to monitor the current tariffs development and also consumer spending leading to its earnings. These factors could affect how Visa guidance commentary would turned out.

Appreciate if you could share your thoughts in the comment section whether you think Visa could exceed the earnings expectations and provide a surprise.

@TigerStars @Daily_Discussion @Tiger_Earnings @TigerWire appreciate if you could feature this article so that fellow tiger would benefit from my investing and trading thoughts.

Disclaimer: The analysis and result presented does not recommend or suggest any investing in the said stock. This is purely for Analysis.